Texas Winter 2014-2015
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We have received about 1.5 inches around here. Models continue to show tonight's storm to lose moisture by the time it gets into North and NE Texas.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Sleet reported a bit ago in Sonora.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
That is what the models are showing, but I always question when models show W TX precip drying up on its way east. Can someone explain what the models are showing? I cannot see the reason for the precip to dissipate unless it is as simple as the forcing from the Gulf low moving away.
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- TheProfessor
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Been getting a nice steady rain with this line that has been training over Southern Denton County. I wasn't expecting it, the AFD that came out around 11:30 thought we would be getting dry slotted until tonight. It seems that there are snow flurries flying around with the rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
Welcome to weather in Texas. It is nothing like what you know from Alabama. I grew up in New Orleans and had to re-learn my weather experiences. You'll realize that it's likely gonna snow when you look outside and see it snowing. No use getting hopes up or that picture of Lucy dhweather likes to post will be in play.

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ralph's Weather wrote:Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
That is what the models are showing, but I always question when models show W TX precip drying up on its way east. Can someone explain what the models are showing? I cannot see the reason for the precip to dissipate unless it is as simple as the forcing from the Gulf low moving away.
The ECMWF and NAM suggest the 5H/7H upper low continues to drop SE. There is some concern that the Eastern Pacific moisture streaming NE will be enhanced due to increasing lift as the cold upper trough shifts E. Surface temperature are above freezing, but additional dynamical cooling could allow some very light accumulation tonight into early Friday across the Edwards Plateau and portions of the Hill Country on N and E. Something to watch as the models sometimes miss these small meso features that cannot be determined beyond a couple of hours out.
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This winter sure is a good one for learning about weather in Texas. If it was not for the models I would be expecting a good snow tonight because we have:
1. Plenty of surface moisture and no dry air to advect in.
2. Current temps in the 30s with northerly winds at the surface though there is no Arctic high to drive down cold air so it is pretty much neutral advection which is ok because...
3. A strong upper low approaching from the SW bringing in cold air aloft.
I am sure I am missing something critical because all the models show dissipating precip tonight.
1. Plenty of surface moisture and no dry air to advect in.
2. Current temps in the 30s with northerly winds at the surface though there is no Arctic high to drive down cold air so it is pretty much neutral advection which is ok because...
3. A strong upper low approaching from the SW bringing in cold air aloft.
I am sure I am missing something critical because all the models show dissipating precip tonight.
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It seems like light snow is falling here, I won't be able to tell for sure until I am released in 20 minutes and can go outside, I just hope it won't stop before then.
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Re:
Ralph's Weather wrote:This winter sure is a good one for learning about weather in Texas. If it was not for the models I would be expecting a good snow tonight because we have:
1. Plenty of surface moisture and no dry air to advect in.
2. Current temps in the 30s with northerly winds at the surface though there is no Arctic high to drive down cold air so it is pretty much neutral advection which is ok because...
3. A strong upper low approaching from the SW bringing in cold air aloft.
I am sure I am missing something critical because all the models show dissipating precip tonight.
I'm glad someone who's been here longer understands where I'm coming from because I'm not getting it either...
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You guys need some heavy precip too, should help wet bulb and pull down the cool air from above. I remember it snowing at 40F here in houston once. Temp started dropping but i thought tht was very warm for it to start snowing.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
The Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs as well as temperature and rainfall projections continue to advertise a fairly robust cooling trend as we end January and begin February. I was speaking to KHOU Meteorologist Mario Gomez a bit ago and he also mentioned some concern about the polar vortex dropping into SE Canada and some impressive temperature departs across the Plains in the longer range. Something to monitor as we end the month of January and begin our climatologically peak period for Winter Weather events across Texas. It appears that the sub tropical jet will remain rather noisy with disturbances riding NE across Mexico and Texas after the 'colder' air arrives. We will see.






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Re:
TheProfessor wrote:It seems like light snow is falling here, I won't be able to tell for sure until I am released in 20 minutes and can go outside, I just hope it won't stop before then.
Released from the asylum or jail?

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What I am seeing that is the limiting factor is that the upper levels where snow forms (generally 600mb to 500mb in this case) is progged to dry out overnight while the levels below 850mb are barely below freezing to above freezing at the surface. So that leaves 850mb to 600mb to form snow in. From this I would expect a mix of 5-8:1 snow and rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
gboudx wrote:Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
Welcome to weather in Texas. It is nothing like what you know from Alabama. I grew up in New Orleans and had to re-learn my weather experiences. You'll realize that it's likely gonna snow when you look outside and see it snowing. No use getting hopes up or that picture of Lucy dhweather likes to post will be in play.
After living in Texas most of my life, (all up and down the I35) I have also discovered that you know you'll get ice/sleet/snow when it's falling on your head.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Shreveport AFD:
"THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IS STILL IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.."
"THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IS STILL IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.."
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