Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ralph's Weather
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#3521 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:59 pm

We have received about 1.5 inches around here. Models continue to show tonight's storm to lose moisture by the time it gets into North and NE Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3522 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:12 pm

Sleet reported a bit ago in Sonora.
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#3523 Postby Tejas89 » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:20 pm

Radar has really started to fill in over West Texas, with snow and mixed precip. Could it be this storm is more "vigorous" than advertised?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3524 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:40 pm

Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3525 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:51 pm

Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.

That is what the models are showing, but I always question when models show W TX precip drying up on its way east. Can someone explain what the models are showing? I cannot see the reason for the precip to dissipate unless it is as simple as the forcing from the Gulf low moving away.
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#3526 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:07 pm

Been getting a nice steady rain with this line that has been training over Southern Denton County. I wasn't expecting it, the AFD that came out around 11:30 thought we would be getting dry slotted until tonight. It seems that there are snow flurries flying around with the rain.
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#3527 Postby Shoshana » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:09 pm

43 here and the gauges are showing more than 2.5" of rain. Ground is saturated and water is pooling where it's not running off.

Looks like the lakes are up a bit so that's good.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3528 Postby gboudx » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:09 pm

Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.


Welcome to weather in Texas. It is nothing like what you know from Alabama. I grew up in New Orleans and had to re-learn my weather experiences. You'll realize that it's likely gonna snow when you look outside and see it snowing. No use getting hopes up or that picture of Lucy dhweather likes to post will be in play. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3529 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:13 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.

That is what the models are showing, but I always question when models show W TX precip drying up on its way east. Can someone explain what the models are showing? I cannot see the reason for the precip to dissipate unless it is as simple as the forcing from the Gulf low moving away.


The ECMWF and NAM suggest the 5H/7H upper low continues to drop SE. There is some concern that the Eastern Pacific moisture streaming NE will be enhanced due to increasing lift as the cold upper trough shifts E. Surface temperature are above freezing, but additional dynamical cooling could allow some very light accumulation tonight into early Friday across the Edwards Plateau and portions of the Hill Country on N and E. Something to watch as the models sometimes miss these small meso features that cannot be determined beyond a couple of hours out.
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#3530 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:21 pm

This winter sure is a good one for learning about weather in Texas. If it was not for the models I would be expecting a good snow tonight because we have:
1. Plenty of surface moisture and no dry air to advect in.
2. Current temps in the 30s with northerly winds at the surface though there is no Arctic high to drive down cold air so it is pretty much neutral advection which is ok because...
3. A strong upper low approaching from the SW bringing in cold air aloft.

I am sure I am missing something critical because all the models show dissipating precip tonight.
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#3531 Postby texas1836 » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:25 pm

41' here in McKinney with a light steady rain.
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#3532 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:28 pm

It seems like light snow is falling here, I won't be able to tell for sure until I am released in 20 minutes and can go outside, I just hope it won't stop before then.
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Re:

#3533 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:33 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:This winter sure is a good one for learning about weather in Texas. If it was not for the models I would be expecting a good snow tonight because we have:
1. Plenty of surface moisture and no dry air to advect in.
2. Current temps in the 30s with northerly winds at the surface though there is no Arctic high to drive down cold air so it is pretty much neutral advection which is ok because...
3. A strong upper low approaching from the SW bringing in cold air aloft.

I am sure I am missing something critical because all the models show dissipating precip tonight.


I'm glad someone who's been here longer understands where I'm coming from because I'm not getting it either...
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#3534 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:48 pm

You guys need some heavy precip too, should help wet bulb and pull down the cool air from above. I remember it snowing at 40F here in houston once. Temp started dropping but i thought tht was very warm for it to start snowing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3535 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:50 pm

The Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs as well as temperature and rainfall projections continue to advertise a fairly robust cooling trend as we end January and begin February. I was speaking to KHOU Meteorologist Mario Gomez a bit ago and he also mentioned some concern about the polar vortex dropping into SE Canada and some impressive temperature departs across the Plains in the longer range. Something to monitor as we end the month of January and begin our climatologically peak period for Winter Weather events across Texas. It appears that the sub tropical jet will remain rather noisy with disturbances riding NE across Mexico and Texas after the 'colder' air arrives. We will see.

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Re:

#3536 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:52 pm

TheProfessor wrote:It seems like light snow is falling here, I won't be able to tell for sure until I am released in 20 minutes and can go outside, I just hope it won't stop before then.


Released from the asylum or jail? ;-)
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#3537 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:59 pm

What I am seeing that is the limiting factor is that the upper levels where snow forms (generally 600mb to 500mb in this case) is progged to dry out overnight while the levels below 850mb are barely below freezing to above freezing at the surface. So that leaves 850mb to 600mb to form snow in. From this I would expect a mix of 5-8:1 snow and rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3538 Postby Shoshana » Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:18 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brent wrote:Raining here and 41 degrees but yet the snow in west Texas will evaporate. I give up.


Welcome to weather in Texas. It is nothing like what you know from Alabama. I grew up in New Orleans and had to re-learn my weather experiences. You'll realize that it's likely gonna snow when you look outside and see it snowing. No use getting hopes up or that picture of Lucy dhweather likes to post will be in play. :)


After living in Texas most of my life, (all up and down the I35) I have also discovered that you know you'll get ice/sleet/snow when it's falling on your head.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3539 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:27 pm

Shreveport AFD:

"THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IS STILL IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.."
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#3540 Postby ndale » Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:42 pm

Just checked rain gauge, we have 2.8 inches of cold rain.
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