Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3521 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:26 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:NWS FTW has upped the precip for Wednesday night to 50% and 50% for Thursday of freezing rain/Sleet

Temps are going to bust big time with current H/L starting tomorrow evening. looking at Wednesday highs remaining in the mid 30's with below freezing Wed night, and Thurs morning. Could see travel impacts across DFW


I hope it doesn't verify. The worst thing we can do is trend up into an ice storm before severe cold. QPF right now isn't too impressive but we all know how that can change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3522 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:26 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:NWS FTW has upped the precip for Wednesday night to 50% and 50% for Thursday of freezing rain/Sleet

Temps are going to bust big time with current H/L starting tomorrow evening. looking at Wednesday highs remaining in the mid 30's with below freezing Wed night, and Thurs morning. Could see travel impacts across DFW

For those of us with children I would be prepared for school cancellations due to ice or extreme cold or both.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3523 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:28 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:NWS FTW has upped the precip for Wednesday night to 50% and 50% for Thursday of freezing rain/Sleet

Temps are going to bust big time with current H/L starting tomorrow evening. looking at Wednesday highs remaining in the mid 30's with below freezing Wed night, and Thurs morning. Could see travel impacts across DFW

For those of us with children I would be prepared for school cancellations due to ice or extreme cold or both.

I've had school in 1°F in 2016-2017 Winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3524 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:28 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I threw in the towel yesterday and now I'm going buy faucet covers and some foam insulation :lol: .


Lake Charles NWS is shopping for suntan lotion and mosquito repellent, apparently. As of this morning they have us above freezing for the entire event (lowest ~33-34) and hint at a rapid warmup starting early next week. No idea how/if their thinking changes this afternoon...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3525 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:29 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:12zUKMET also with the Arctic Hammer....Will be interesting to read the NWS Forecast Discussions from around Texas.

Valentines Morning
https://i.imgur.com/Y7u9bLw.png


Low 20s for highs on Saturday. Friday is below freezing for DFW. Considering generally it is a conservative model.


With this kind of 500mb setup if they ran the UKMET 1 more day I would wager that an impressive winter storm will take place in Central/North Texas. Parts of South Texas will probably have the Austin Special Freezing Drizzle :lol:


Oh yes ... I'm fully expecting some freezing drizzle later this week. It's been awhile for us here ... we've been getting these dumb snowfalls ... Mother Nature forgot that we are supposed to be the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas. :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3526 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:30 pm

:uarrow:

Oh and if this thing actually verifies ... kudos to Ralph's Weather who stuck to his guns despite the past weekend's computer model schizophrenia!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3527 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:31 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Low 20s for highs on Saturday. Friday is below freezing for DFW. Considering generally it is a conservative model.


With this kind of 500mb setup if they ran the UKMET 1 more day I would wager that an impressive winter storm will take place in Central/North Texas. Parts of South Texas will probably have the Austin Special Freezing Drizzle :lol:


Oh yes ... I'm fully expecting some freezing drizzle later this week. It's been awhile for us here ... we've been getting these dumb snowfalls ... Mother Nature forgot that we are supposed to be the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas. :cheesy:

I'm expecting Freezing Drizzle through Thursday/Friday!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3528 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:32 pm

Has the heat miser left for the Australian outback?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3529 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:34 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Has the heat miser left for the Australian outback?

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week. :lol:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3530 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:35 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Has the heat miser left for the Australian outback?

No, he is still here, trying to build a wall protecting Houston from the cold. If that does not work, he will grab some heaters to shoo away the PV next week. :lol:


He's been working hard on that wall, but run by run it is crumbling.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3531 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:35 pm

This is 1983 and 1989 like stuff for South Texas. I hope our local NWS in Corpus and San Antonio are taking note because their overnight AFD were kind of showing some passing concern. They should be treating this like a storm in Caribbean with eyes for the Western Gulf right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3532 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:36 pm

I’m in Norman Oklahoma today. Freezing rain has been light all morning but temperatures have fallen to 30° and metal surfaces have iced over. Trees and high objects have icicles forming. We might be below freezing the rest of the week. Not the kind of stuff you want to see before major cold (pipes freezing and hazardous travel conditions) and it’s exactly why NTX shouldn’t be rooting for an ice storm in a few days. Thankful, however, that it’s only been light so far. Nothing compared to the October ice storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3533 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:38 pm

Cerlin wrote:I’m in Norman Oklahoma today. Freezing rain has been light all morning but temperatures have fallen to 30° and metal surfaces have iced over. Trees and high objects have icicles forming. We might be below freezing the rest of the week. Not the kind of stuff you want to see before major cold (pipes freezing and hazardous travel conditions) and it’s exactly why NTX shouldn’t be rooting for an ice storm in a few days. Thankful, however, that it’s only been light so far. Nothing compared to the October ice storm.

I've been there in the 2020 October Ice Storm, the damage is still there on the Trees.

Traffic Pileups in OKC & to the North & West of the Metro, be very careful! :(

(Hey! You are close to me! :eek: )
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3534 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:40 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:This is 1983 and 1989 like stuff for South Texas. I hope our local NWS in Corpus and San Antonio are taking note because their overnight AFD were kind of showing some passing concern. They should be treating this like a storm in Caribbean with eyes for the Western Gulf right now.


I suspect you will start seeing some dramatic changes in forecasts given guidance consensus. They have been careful and who can blame them after the model debacle we had this past weekend. But trust me, they know about it and they're watching closely. I visited with some mets from NWS Austin/San Antonio over the weekend and they are closely watching it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3535 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:This is 1983 and 1989 like stuff for South Texas. I hope our local NWS in Corpus and San Antonio are taking note because their overnight AFD were kind of showing some passing concern. They should be treating this like a storm in Caribbean with eyes for the Western Gulf right now.


I suspect you will start seeing some dramatic changes in forecasts given guidance consensus. They have been careful and who can blame them after the model debacle we had this past weekend. But trust me, they know about it and they're watching closely. I visited with some mets from NWS Austin/San Antonio over the weekend and they are closely watching it.


GFS never wavered. If it verifies crown it King...

until it is too warm...you just know it wants to flip at the last minute.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3536 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:44 pm

Cerlin wrote:I’m in Norman Oklahoma today. Freezing rain has been light all morning but temperatures have fallen to 30° and metal surfaces have iced over. Trees and high objects have icicles forming. We might be below freezing the rest of the week. Not the kind of stuff you want to see before major cold (pipes freezing and hazardous travel conditions) and it’s exactly why NTX shouldn’t be rooting for an ice storm in a few days. Thankful, however, that it’s only been light so far. Nothing compared to the October ice storm.

I'm north of Tulsa and we couldn't even leave our house today because the roads were so bad. The problem is we've got highs in the 20's dropping to the teens by next weekend with potentially more ice on the way in a few days so it's going to be an interesting week here... Shouldn't be anything like the 2007 storm, but it could get nasty, as I generally hate cold, and really hate ice...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3537 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:45 pm

I am eagerly awaiting the euro. I want to see consistency and given that, see if it’s buying into any of these ridiculous temps.

Today may be the day that forecasters start to make a move so if the euro gets colder you might want to tell any friends or family to get whatever they need for extreme cold before it goes to mass public
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3538 Postby Haris » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:46 pm

Image :cold: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3539 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:48 pm

Geez, fair to say I've never seen a Temp Cross-Sectional view like this at this latitude!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3540 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:56 pm

12zCMC Ensemble Mean Sunday Morning has not wavered much and actually went a couple of degrees colder....27f for my area

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