Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3521 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:18 am

This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3522 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:19 am

Regardless of the Texas outcome, this will be a massive winter storm for the Southern Plains into the Mid-west/Ohio River Valley.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3523 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:22 am

Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state


Yeah given the expected warm nose with this upcoming winter storm, I'll take a hard pass on any frozen precip here in south central/southeast TX. Freezing rain is NO fun. The current model trends show an increasing risk of a significant ice storm in north TX. Yall stay safe up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3524 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:22 am

Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.

(I have a GIF coming)
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3525 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:23 am

That was a big run. Accumulation totals are curbed a bit in SE dfw but I think it’s because it’s too slow with the surface temp progression. Most models have dfw going below freezing around midnight but the latest run moves that back a couple hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3526 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:23 am

Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state


Air mass involved and source region. I'd just assume faster and colder than currently modeled at the surface.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3527 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:26 am

February 2003. 3-5” of sleet area wide.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3528 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:27 am

Iceresistance wrote:Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.

(I have a GIF coming)


Here it is, it's the worst case scenario for DFW

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3529 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:29 am

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state


Air mass involved and source region. I'd just assume faster and colder than currently modeled at the surface.


Freezing transition will have MASSIVE implications for a bulked up QPF event like this...just look at the above-freezing vs freezing transition totals for DFW according to GFS. Freezing line moves through Metroplex b/w Midnight and 2 am according to this run

During Transition
Image
After
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3530 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:33 am

ICON has freezing line moving through DFW around 9pm Wednesday and this is the after freezing precip totals.... :double: yikes if this came close to verifying!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3531 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:33 am

Holy crap GFS. That -tilt is nuts. Thankfully dropped that second pesky ice storm too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3532 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:35 am

Cerlin wrote:Holy crap GFS. That -tilt is nuts. Thankfully dropped that second pesky ice storm too.

I have a feeling if that pattern holds that the second impulse will be more noticeable than currently depicted, similar to 2011. Hopefully it’s snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3533 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:39 am

CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3534 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:42 am

Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.

Image
:froze: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3535 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:42 am

Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.


The Ceiling is still really high for this storm, the only other question is, how high can it go?

Also, DFW gets absolutely clobbered with a Sleet Storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3536 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:43 am

The 12z GFS has a messy ejection but it's very close to a historic snow storm setup, esp given the warm surface bias models have with cold air masses.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3537 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:45 am

Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.


12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3538 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:45 am

bubba hotep wrote:The 12z GFS has a messy ejection but it's very close to a historic snow storm setup, esp given the warm surface bias models have with cold air masses.


Something like what the Canadian is currently showing, with a tad faster cold. I find it crazy it would sleet in the teens and low 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3539 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:49 am

Austin goes to ice and sleet while DFW transitions to snow. Looks like maybe a trowal structure.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3540 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:50 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.


The Ceiling is still really high for this storm, the only other question is, how high can it go?

Also, DFW gets absolutely clobbered with a Sleet Storm


I'm feeling this could be big up here for real. I just hope it's snow and not ice
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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