Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Regardless of the Texas outcome, this will be a massive winter storm for the Southern Plains into the Mid-west/Ohio River Valley.


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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state
Yeah given the expected warm nose with this upcoming winter storm, I'll take a hard pass on any frozen precip here in south central/southeast TX. Freezing rain is NO fun. The current model trends show an increasing risk of a significant ice storm in north TX. Yall stay safe up there.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.
(I have a GIF coming)
(I have a GIF coming)
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cheezyWXguy
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- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
That was a big run. Accumulation totals are curbed a bit in SE dfw but I think it’s because it’s too slow with the surface temp progression. Most models have dfw going below freezing around midnight but the latest run moves that back a couple hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state
Air mass involved and source region. I'd just assume faster and colder than currently modeled at the surface.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.
(I have a GIF coming)
Here it is, it's the worst case scenario for DFW

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Haris wrote:This one looks like Dec 2013 cobblestone event for you guys in DFW. Remains to be seen the interception of cold air and moisture for Central Texas. Not looking pretty though given all the ice for the northern half of the state
Air mass involved and source region. I'd just assume faster and colder than currently modeled at the surface.
Freezing transition will have MASSIVE implications for a bulked up QPF event like this...just look at the above-freezing vs freezing transition totals for DFW according to GFS. Freezing line moves through Metroplex b/w Midnight and 2 am according to this run
During Transition

After

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
ICON has freezing line moving through DFW around 9pm Wednesday and this is the after freezing precip totals....
yikes if this came close to verifying!



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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Holy crap GFS. That -tilt is nuts. Thankfully dropped that second pesky ice storm too.
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Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
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All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- cheezyWXguy
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- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:Holy crap GFS. That -tilt is nuts. Thankfully dropped that second pesky ice storm too.
I have a feeling if that pattern holds that the second impulse will be more noticeable than currently depicted, similar to 2011. Hopefully it’s snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1810
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9296
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.
The Ceiling is still really high for this storm, the only other question is, how high can it go?
Also, DFW gets absolutely clobbered with a Sleet Storm
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The 12z GFS has a messy ejection but it's very close to a historic snow storm setup, esp given the warm surface bias models have with cold air masses.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.
12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:The 12z GFS has a messy ejection but it's very close to a historic snow storm setup, esp given the warm surface bias models have with cold air masses.
Something like what the Canadian is currently showing, with a tad faster cold. I find it crazy it would sleet in the teens and low 20s.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Austin goes to ice and sleet while DFW transitions to snow. Looks like maybe a trowal structure.


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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.
The Ceiling is still really high for this storm, the only other question is, how high can it go?
Also, DFW gets absolutely clobbered with a Sleet Storm
I'm feeling this could be big up here for real. I just hope it's snow and not ice
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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