Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS has a messy ejection but it's very close to a historic snow storm setup, esp given the warm surface bias models have with cold air masses.

Something like what the Canadian is currently showing, with a tad faster cold. I find it crazy it would sleet in the teens and low 20s.

The Warm nose vanishes completely over Central Oklahoma

I get 8-10 inches of snow on the 12z CMC, that's double from 4-6 inches on the 0z run.

[Ntxw]

CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.

12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious

More GEFs members are on board with sig event. It's even trending to maybe a snow look. I don't see how, unless Euro hugging still, the WFOs can bank on low odds. The issue for them was lower qpf but the trend has been clearly to increase.

[bbowman7]

Okay, for us who follow this site, but have no clue how to read the maps and what to follow - What does this mean for East Texas area? Tyler/Longview area in particular.

I appreciate any feedback anyone can give.

[Iceresistance]

Okay, for us who follow this site, but have no clue how to read the maps and what to follow - What does this mean for East Texas area? Tyler/Longview area in particular.

I appreciate any feedback anyone can give.

It appears that most of Eastern Texas will mostly get rain (And a lot of it) from the storm system, there is a chance for Winter Precip on the backside of the system though.

[Brent]

the mean is over 6 inches here

[Ntxw]

FYI over the past several days the trend has been south with everything. Minus the Euro, all the other guidance have all but eliminated totals for Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Missouri where 10+ totals were prior runs. Northern Kansas is probably next in future runs.

[Iceresistance]

:double: the mean is over 6 inches here

https://i.ibb.co/b38g6nH/snod-conus-2.png

It appears to be 6-8 inches Mean snowfall for Tulsa, I'm at 4-6 inches Mean snowfall

[bubba hotep]

CMC increases qpf from it's 0z run.

12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious

More GEFs members are on board with sig event. It's even trending to maybe a snow look. I don't see how, unless Euro hugging still, the WFOs can bank on low odds. The issue for them was lower qpf but the trend has been clearly to increase.

When do they pull the trigger on Winter Storm Watches? I'm sure internal conversations are starting between WPC and WFOs, maybe even SPC.

[Cerlin]

I was worried about this site being a little dead earlier this month but we’ve added nearly 20 pages just over the last two days!

[Cerlin]

12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious

More GEFs members are on board with sig event. It's even trending to maybe a snow look. I don't see how, unless Euro hugging still, the WFOs can bank on low odds. The issue for them was lower qpf but the trend has been clearly to increase.

When do they pull the trigger on Winter Storm Watches? I'm sure internal conversations are starting between WPC and WFOs, maybe even SPC.

I think Winter Storm Watches occur whenever there’s a threat of significant winter weather within 48 hours. But, I agree, they’re more than likely discussing it already given the strong model agreement right now.

[Ntxw]

12Z GEFS almost doubled its precip totals post-freezing time frame....almost time for alarm bells to go out to Friends and Family, this is looking really serious

More GEFs members are on board with sig event. It's even trending to maybe a snow look. I don't see how, unless Euro hugging still, the WFOs can bank on low odds. The issue for them was lower qpf but the trend has been clearly to increase.

When do they pull the trigger on Winter Storm Watches? I'm sure internal conversations are starting between WPC and WFOs, maybe even SPC.

Given history I'd guess Tuesday in the afternoon package should percentages hold steady. Ideally 48 hours advance would be good but 24 is playing on the conservative end. The highest risk would be where qpf intercepts cold which is right around the I-35 corridor between OUN and FW WFOs.

[rwfromkansas]

Holy cow, this page is rocking. This is starting to get serious now.

I am getting concerned, and I am about 70 percent I will not have school Thursday or Friday. I hope this is not the major ice event shown. These things do tend to change a lot as it gets closer with reducing the ice a bit, so I hope that's fine.

An inch of sleet with a couple of inches of snow on top would be a-okay. Not an inch of glaze.

I did put the warning out on FB with Evan getting on board, but not going to pull the "get prepared now" post. But, if TV starts going crazy, folks better get supplies by Monday.

Amazon has some generators available for delivery, but unless you can get a switch installed in time, not sure if it's worth it.

Side note: When did FWD start obsessing over statistics? Seems like much of their discussions now focus on that.

[Iceresistance]

WPC just updated this:


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif

[Iceresistance]

Funny Forecast discussion from NWS-Norman

By Tuesday, the cloud cover will begin to increase, the winds will
begin to shift to the north, and the temperatures will begin to
drop. More significantly, as the temperatures fall, there will be
plenty of deep moisture and lift available for increasing
precipitation chances. PoPs have been raised slightly beginning
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, and remain a bit higher than
previous updates through early Thursday. While the precipitation
chances are increased, there remains some uncertainty in the
amounts and p-type. What is much more certain is the cold air
which will be entrenched by midweek, with temperatures not rising
above freezing for much of the area on Thursday.

Confidence continues to increase for winter weather impacts during
the midweek period, especially to the north and west of I-44.
Forecast model soundings continue to suggest some sleet or even
freezing rain for a brief time early Wednesday. Given the depth of
the cold air and impressive cold air advection, have opted to
not get too cute with precipitation types ( ) and kept only a chance
of rain or snow during the transition period. Current thoughts are
that the models are not picking up on the depth of the cold air
fast enough and are hanging onto the warm nose a bit too long.
While this is a possibility, there remains plenty of time to
adjust the forecast in the next several days to account for the
microphysics.

[Texas Snow]

Side note: When did FWD start obsessing over statistics? Seems like much of their discussions now focus on that.

I've notices it with a couple of the younger forecasters. It's not a bad thing. Maybe they have always talked about it internally but these folks are typing it. I love the more detail they provide, always.

[Portastorm]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

[harp]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

[Haris]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

Shallow arctic air will overpower the models like always. I think Austin does get freezing rain. Cutoff will be somewhere between college station and Uvalde but it’s too early right now as well

[Ntxw]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

A mysterious wall of some sort? What or who might that be!

Give it a few more days until we get in hi res territory. We should have a better idea on cold air movement at that time.

[cheezyWXguy]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

Not much, I think it’s underdoing the extent and depth of cold air a bit. That said, I wonder if it’s due to the negative tilt of the trough pulling more warm air north?