Texas Winter 2024-2025

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3541 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:14 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
snownado wrote:No changes on the 18z RGEM.


Was the 12z RGEM a good run for snow in N Texas? It's hard to keep up!


I searched the topic for RGEM (geez, just learned I could do that) and found the earlier post. It was a big hit.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3542 Postby JayDT » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:16 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
JayDT wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Feb 2010 was supposed to be 1-3 inches as well.


I remember some on tv even saying only a “dusting”… :lol:

I specifically remember Larry Mowry from CBS 11 mention possibly an inch so I went to bed thinking it wouldn't be a big deal. Woke up to a winter wonderland around 7 the next morning.


Oh yea! He’s the one I liked watching the most back in those days. I liked the way he explained everything. I remember that night before too! And the next day he was updating the totals every 30 mins :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3543 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:17 pm

18z RGEM

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3544 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:17 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
JayDT wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Feb 2010 was supposed to be 1-3 inches as well.


I remember some on tv even saying only a “dusting”… :lol:

I specifically remember Larry Mowry from CBS 11 mention possibly an inch so I went to bed thinking it wouldn't be a big deal. Woke up to a winter wonderland around 7 the next morning.



The weather service was still predicting an inch when there was already 3-4 inches on the ground in the 2010 storm. They were way behind on accumulations but yes Delkus was right there with them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3545 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:20 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
snownado wrote:No changes on the 18z RGEM.


Was the 12z RGEM a good run for snow in N Texas? It's hard to keep up!


I searched the topic for RGEM (geez, just learned I could do that) and found the earlier post. It was a big hit.

18Z RGEM has 7 for Dallas, 14 for Denton and 19 NE of Decatur. A general 1.5-2" QPF across N and NE TX so anywhere where profile leans mostly snow will be slammed and others will be slammed by sleet across I-20.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3546 Postby Gotwood » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:21 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
Was the 12z RGEM a good run for snow in N Texas? It's hard to keep up!


I searched the topic for RGEM (geez, just learned I could do that) and found the earlier post. It was a big hit.

18Z RGEM has 7 for Dallas, 14 for Denton and 19 NE of Decatur. A general 1.5-2" QPF across N and NE TX so anywhere where profile leans mostly snow will be slammed and others will be slammed by sleet across I-20.

At this point I’ll take anything but praying for snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3547 Postby snownado » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:23 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
snownado wrote:No changes on the 18z RGEM.


Was the 12z RGEM a good run for snow in N Texas? It's hard to keep up!


It has consistently been showing a ton of sleet
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3548 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:28 pm

Updated NBM (blend of models)

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3549 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:30 pm

My company is gearing up for an all hands on deck event to do utility damage assessments. The money in that is great. Kinda want to sign up to work one of these storms one time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3550 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:31 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
Was the 12z RGEM a good run for snow in N Texas? It's hard to keep up!


I searched the topic for RGEM (geez, just learned I could do that) and found the earlier post. It was a big hit.

18Z RGEM has 7 for Dallas, 14 for Denton and 19 NE of Decatur. A general 1.5-2" QPF across N and NE TX so anywhere where profile leans mostly snow will be slammed and others will be slammed by sleet across I-20.


Lock it in for Denton!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3551 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:35 pm

I wonder if 12z was just a huge model hiccup

Image
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXiV4.gif
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3552 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:36 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:My company is gearing up for an all hands on deck event to do utility damage assessments. The money in that is great. Kinda want to sign up to work one of these storms one time.


Only thing about that is when you and your work are raking in the bucks, it's because there's a lot of people who aren't. LOL. But it is very important work and a step in the process of restoring infrastructure, so I salute ya!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3553 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:38 pm

These model sites do not handle precip types well. On Pivotal I am seeing it showing rain with max column temps at or below 0C. That's not how it works haha.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3554 Postby Quixotic » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:54 pm

My point forecast has changed to a wintry mess and is 5 degrees warmer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3555 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:57 pm

Quixotic wrote:My point forecast has changed to a wintry mess and is 5 degrees warmer.

NWS updated forecasts before the models began improving again recently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3556 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:57 pm

18z gfs still sticking to its guns with the 500mb pattern, but has a nice wraparound on the backside, resulting in the highest accumulations since 18z yesterday. Also might be a degree or so cooler but that’s splitting hairs. I am mildly encouraged by the 18z model trends today.
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3557 Postby Quixotic » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:57 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:My point forecast has changed to a wintry mess and is 5 degrees warmer.

NWS updated forecasts before the models began improving again recently.


Updated in last hour. No discussion yet
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3558 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:59 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:My point forecast has changed to a wintry mess and is 5 degrees warmer.

NWS updated forecasts before the models began improving again recently.


Updated in last hour. No discussion yet


Yup, mine went to crap too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3559 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:59 pm

18z GFS bumps up totals across DFW

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3560 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 07, 2025 5:00 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:18z gfs still sticking to its guns with the 500mb pattern, but has a nice wraparound on the backside, resulting in the highest accumulations since 18z yesterday. Also might be a degree or so cooler but that’s splitting hairs. I am mildly encouraged by the 18z model trends today.


As much as some of us have been disappointed, our friends to the west and southwest are getting the rug pulled even harder with less chance of recovery due to qpf issues.
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