Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

As we wait for the 00z models here is a little triva fact - if the 12z op GFS was included in the 12z Euro EPS as member 53, it would be the coldest member for the NY holiday cold blast.

[Jag95]

Can I have the link the that model please? Curious to see how to does. For me, the more models to compare the better!

Model runs over the next 24 hours will be big in determining how cold we get. Should start to hopefully get some agreement between the Euro and GFS by tomorrow night's runs.

Sure thing

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

if that were to verify the RGV would be in for one hell of a freeze!

If that was to verify, I'd see nothing but a little freezing rain. To find snow, I'd need to get in my boat and motor south around 75 miles on Jan 2.

[Brent]

As we wait for the 00z models here is a little triva fact - if the 12z op GFS was included in the 12z Euro EPS as member 53, it would be the coldest member for the NY holiday cold blast.

thought so.... that's what I was looking for on the EPS earlier, support for such extreme cold

[South Texas Storms]

So how cold a temp will the GFS show across the state this run? 0F?

[Brent]

So how cold a temp will the GFS show across the state this run? 0F?

honestly I'll be surprised if it doesn't start trending warmer soon

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday night briefing from Jeff:

A series of cold fronts will progress across SE TX for the next several days keeping a cool air mass in place.

Coastal trough has developed along the middle TX coast this morning and is starting to lift ENE/NE along the coast with light rain and drizzle across portions of the area. Temperatures range from the 40’s to 50’s across the area and will likely not see much of a change in the temperatures today with clouds and passing light rain. A cold front will move across the area tonight and early Wednesday ushering in a colder and drier air mass. Expect the deepening drier air to slowing end the overrunning situation in place and reduce the coverage of drizzle and light rain. Temperatures will likely remain in the 40’s on Wednesday under cold air advection and cloud cover.

Best days will likely be Thursday and Friday as clouds decrease allowing better surface warming of temperatures into the mid 50’s. Clouds come back late Friday and into Saturday-Sunday as another potentially strong cold front approaches the region. Will likely need to have some low rain chances Saturday and NYE over the area and these may need to be raised depending on how exactly the pattern develops. Extended range models continue to advertise arctic air mass dump into the US around New Year’s, but are struggling with how much of this air mass heads straight southward into TX versus SE toward the SE US and actually how cold the air may be. For now will likely see some sort of frontal passage on NYE or NYD, but how cold the post frontal air mass may be is in question.

[South Texas Storms]

Big changes in the Pacific showing up in the 0z GFS for 72 hours...looks like it's trending towards the Euro. We'll see soon.

[bubba hotep]

Big changes in the Pacific showing up in the 0z GFS for 72 hours...looks like it's trending towards the Euro. We'll see soon.

Was just going to post the same thought.

ETA: GFS is still maintaining ridging up into Alaska, that is still a big diff b/w the Euro and GFS @ 90h

[Brent]

lol I would say I'm shocked but I'm not...

looks like its definitely gonna be closer to the Euro with the earlier front on Saturday instead of Sunday

[ronyan]

The GFS 500mb pattern is still quite different from the Euro over GoA. More ridging.

[bubba hotep]

Really starting to diverge again at 96h.

[Cpv17]

GFS still has a 1052mb high at hour 102 on the ND/Montana border. Strengthens to 1055mb at hour 108.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the cold 1052mb backing into Montana. Not as strong as 1057mb of 12z for same time but still big HP

[Brent]

Mixed precip moving into Dallas again Sunday afternoon

[Ntxw]

The digging trough behind the GLs trough is the key here in the NW. Euro is flat and just slides it right along the Northern US. GFS and CMC digs it into the mountain west carving way for cold to spill

[Brent]

ice in Dallas Sunday evening

Is a little less drastic with the cold Sunday, a few degrees warmer but still cold

[Cpv17]

Here comes the cold 1052mb backing into Montana. Not as strong as 1057mb of 12z for same time but still big HP

It got to 1057mb again

[ronyan]

Here comes the cold 1052mb backing into Montana. Not as strong as 1057mb of 12z for same time but still big HP

1057mb at hr 114.

[Ntxw]

[South Texas Storms]

Really starting to diverge again at 96h.

Yeah but the GFS did trend closer to the Euro tonight regarding that energy currently near Hawaii. Is it the start of a cave towards the Euro?