Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

There's an increasing low pressure MSLP anomaly in western Canada through Alaska in the 12Z Euro ensembles by day 5. Deterministic run has increasing MSLP anomalies in western Canada at days 8-10 (1042mb-1044mb high at day 10 in NW Canada). In general, the Euro indicates well below-normal temps across the NE U.S. the next 10 days and temps a little cooler than normal across Texas.

[Big O]

European Ensemble mean is looking quite interesting Days 10-15. Trough across central and eastern CONUS, with some blocking over the top. The signal is quite strong given that it is an ensemble mean. While the center of the cold is probably across the Great Lakes and Midwest, we do look to get in on the action.

[Portastorm]

Very interesting snippet from today's 8-14 day forecast discussion from the Climate Prediction Center. The plot thickens ...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 27 2014

TODAY'S WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND SUGGESTS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD; THIS IS A RARE OCCURRENCE,
CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE USUAL
INCREASE IN MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER LEADS TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS,
WITH THE MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN ITS FAVORED
POSITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS: THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE
DAILY PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM DAYS 10 TO 15
IS IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE.

THE SURFACE OUTLOOKS ARE SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH
GENERALLY TILTED COLDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH COULD
AMPLIFY FARTHER WEST, DIRECTING MORE COLD AIR TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
ECMWF SYSTEM IS MORE FRIENDLY TOWARD THAT SCENARIO. WITH A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR LATER IN WEEK-2, INCREASING STORM CHANCES NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.


Also, I don't know if there's anything to this yet or not, but the 18z GFS op run does show a retrograding ridge-trough pattern around 12-13 days out from now. It looks colder for Texas during that time frame then the 06z run. Something to watch, I suppose.

[Ntxw]

Euro and the ensembles should be generating some buzz soon

Yeah, GFS isn't that different - its just slower to retrograde the Western North American ridge. But I believe both should begin to build some fairly significant HP's across NW Canada over the coming days

I'm interested in what kind of outcome this poleward moving powerful EPO ridge will do. We've seen 3 different cold blast set ups this winter (thanksgivings, early December, and early January) each with the NE PAC ridge behaving differently and this is yet another different EPO blocking regime with west coast ridging retrograding northwest. There are a couple of outbreaks that had this look, we'll have to see if February will follow the sequence with a blast of it's own.

This winter has taught a lot about the EPO and in turn McFarland's signature and how it behaves, definitely will be case study to look back in future winters.

[orangeblood]

Euro and the ensembles should be generating some buzz soon

Yeah, GFS isn't that different - its just slower to retrograde the Western North American ridge. But I believe both should begin to build some fairly significant HP's across NW Canada over the coming days

I'm interested in what kind of outcome this poleward moving powerful EPO ridge will do. We've seen 3 different cold blast set ups this winter (thanksgivings, early December, and early January) each with the NE PAC ridge behaving differently and this is yet another different EPO blocking regime with west coast ridging retrograding northwest. There are a couple of outbreaks that had this look, we'll have to see if February will follow the sequence with a blast of it's own.

This winter has taught a lot about the EPO and in turn McFarland's signature and how it behaves, definitely will be case study to look back in future winters.

Yep, deja vu - all long range guidance point towards the highest height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere residing over Alaska in the 10-15 day range. What seems to be different this time around is 1 ) the blocking in the Arctic Circle is more pronounced (-AO) and 2) According to the Euro, the pacific jet is going to start cranking towards the end of the month. Instead of the flow coming from out of NE Siberia, this is straight out of the Arctic Circle. What's not to like about a trend towards - AO, neutral to - PNA and - EPO

[vbhoutex]

JB bringing up the 17-18 winter looked very valid. So far i feel like this winter has been a bit more west based than that year. I still think we have one more big time cold coming. Big time as in 20's for lows in Houston. Maybe mid 20's to be safe. Still a month left in winter and i think winter kind of cycles cold to mild about every six weeks. We shall see.

My instrument only registered .02 an inch of rain last night, that accurate? All that drama and just .02?

Registered 0.17" here in the Spring Branch area.

[Ntxw]

Folks the ensembles and deterministic guidance are showing a monster -EPO tank. Disregard what the surface is showing medium to long range, we will likely see major changes on them in the coming days. The cold will slowly make an appearance through cold fronts this weekend and next week before we establish much colder air over North America. While the top down stratospheric warming did not come through as expected, the bottom up temperatures suggest the East Pacific domain is ready for these blocking ridges.

If you haven't taken a look at the weeklies, that is about as monstrous a -EPO you will ever see.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is getting there. That is one heck of a ridge cutting up to the pole, coast to coast trough. Greatest height anomalies (as orangeblood has mentioned) is over Alaska and the Pole with the EPO region going gangbusters.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man, the NW flow is quite persistant in the run

[srainhoutx]

Another chilly morning here in NW Harris County where temperatures have dropped to the mid 30's. Those temperatures will rebound nicely today ahead of a re inforcing cold front arriving tonight with an even colder front arriving Thursday as a fast progressive NW flow remain the theme this week. The Marathon weather still looks nice for the runners, but yet another front may arrive late Sunday into Monday continuing the dry weather pattern.

Changes are beginning to show up in the longer range computer guidance suggesting that a broad trough will develop across North America as the Western Ridge breaks down and that pesky -EPO/-WPO regime becomes re established and a strong Ridge develops across the Gulf of Alaska and noses all the way into the interior of our 49th State. The deterministic and ensemble guidance are once again developing a pattern that looks very similar to what we witnessed beginning in mid last November and continued into early January. While it is likely that we have seen the 'coldest' air of our Winter Season, it certainly does not mean winter is over. If such a pattern does in fact does develop toward the end of January/early February, climatology suggests our greatest threats for wintry weather are just ahead as upper air disturbances ride S along or just W of the Inter Mountain West into the base of the trough tapping Gulf moisture allowing precip albeit somewhat light to develop across our Region and strengthen as those storm systems organize over Colorado/New Mexico/Texas and Oklahoma and turn NE. Enjoy the relative warm/dry weather while it lasts. Changes may well be lurking in about a 7-10 days.

[wxman57]

The only above normal MSLP anomalies in the Euro Ensembles (mean or control) are well west of Alaska in the 10-15 day time frame. Low pressure anomalies all across the U.S. in the extended. Nothing to indicate any significant winter weather across Texas this month. Nothing to indicate any warm weather either.

[Kludge]

Totals so far for this page:

Cold returning in 10-15:
Ntxw
Srainhoutx
Big O
Portastorm
TeamPlayersBlue
orangeblood

Not:
Wxman57

Let's hope the majority rules in this case.

[orangeblood]

The only above normal MSLP anomalies in the Euro Ensembles (mean or control) are well west of Alaska in the 10-15 day time frame. Low pressure anomalies all across the U.S. in the extended. Nothing to indicate any significant winter weather across Texas this month. Nothing to indicate any warm weather either.

haha, I like how you phrased that - no mention of cold. After the 23rd, when the mean ridge axis shifts off the west coast of NA, the Arctic Flood gates will open up into the plains. This potential cold period might be different than early December 2013 in that the coldest anomalies will be the further south you go as opposed to north during the december outbreak.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Totals so far for this page:

Cold returning in 10-15:
Ntxw
Srainhoutx
Big O
Portastorm
TeamPlayersBlue
orangeblood

Not:
Wxman57

Let's hope the majority rules in this case.

Hahahha My money is on around Feb 5th.

[Big O]

0z European ensemble mean and control run both show a deep trough retrograding westward in the Day 10-15 period. At the same time, an impressive ridge develops along or just off the west coast. Result: Full latitude trough across the central and eastern U.S. While the temperature anomalies are not overly impressive at this time, this should change. The key is the 500 mb flow pattern, which would direct arctic air into the central and eastern CONUS. The only concern I have is will the air travel as far south as Texas or remain in entrenched in the northern Plains and Northeast. My amateur thoughts are that given the dense nature of the air, the models are underplaying how far south and strong the cold push will be.

[wxman57]

Totals so far for this page:

Cold returning in 10-15:
Ntxw
Srainhoutx
Big O
Portastorm
TeamPlayersBlue
orangeblood

Not:
Wxman57

Let's hope the majority rules in this case.

Define "cold". Teens in Houston? Light freeze in Dallas? Snow in the Rio Grande Valley?

Meanwhile, 06Z GFS has Houston reaching the mid 70s early next week. I like that run!

[Big O]

WxMan 57, early next week is Day 6-7. Pattern change occurs on or around Day 10.

Larry Cosgrove posted this on his FB page:

"The bottom line is this: a strong +PNA to -EPO configuration will be taking shape very soon, and most anyone living east of the Continental Divide can expect some record low temperatures between January 14 and 31."

[wxman57]

WxMan 57, early next week is Day 6-7. Pattern change occurs on or around Day 10.

Larry Cosgrove posted this on his FB page:

"The bottom line is this: a strong +PNA to -EPO configuration will be taking shape very soon, and most anyone living east of the Continental Divide can expect some record low temperatures between January 14 and 31."

Record low temperatures? For Houston that would mean teens or lower except for the "warmer" records on the 26th (23F) and 29th (22F). For Dallas, that's low teens to below-zero temps - colder than last week:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfw01nrm

I'm not seeing anything remotely that cold through January.

[Portastorm]

WxMan 57, early next week is Day 6-7. Pattern change occurs on or around Day 10.

Larry Cosgrove posted this on his FB page:

"The bottom line is this: a strong +PNA to -EPO configuration will be taking shape very soon, and most anyone living east of the Continental Divide can expect some record low temperatures between January 14 and 31."

Record low temperatures? For Houston that would mean teens or lower except for the "warmer" records on the 26th (23F) and 29th (22F). For Dallas, that's low teens to below-zero temps - colder than last week:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfw01nrm

I'm not seeing anything remotely that cold through January.

Well, it's not unusual to see some disagreement between pro mets which appears to be what we have in this case. Those of us amateurs will watch things unfold with gleeful interest!

[Stormcenter]

Bottom line....we are not seeing any 80's anytime soon.