Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS is clearly showing this, it could be bluffing though.

It isn't just the GFS. The overall digging western trough is ripe for our analogs of ULL snows. Magic is El Paso or Northern Mex ejection with some cold air, don't need a ton.

GFS is beautiful for us though .

I call it the Juarez Bowling Ball league and it’s JV sister, the Brownsville Coastal Lowcapades

I could not stop laughing from this. That was too funny!

[harp]

The op GFS finally delivers the cold. Hoping that trough digs a little further south and west to benefit my area with moisture. Still plenty of time to watch. It will constantly change.

[Ntxw]

Extended range (Feb) looks like the western trough and eastern ridge will battle it out. We sit in the middle so might see a back and forth for typical Nina-like pattern. Cold bleed on one side and warm nudge on the other. Gradient in between I think we will get much more pronounced wet pattern. Wavelengths change though so you won't expect same results for early or mid winter.

[Ntxw]

Late January and early Feb 1982 has appeared a few times.

[Sambucol]

Will the cold air make it to the upper Texas Gulf Coast? Possible chance of any winter precipitation?

[gpsnowman]

Late January and early Feb 1982 has appeared a few times.

https://i.imgur.com/Nrvmcxf.png

https://i.imgur.com/TBqZ8Xc.png

I think this will go down as one of the most anticipated/long drawn out pattern flips in Texas Winter history. We have been wating and and will continue to wait for what seems like forever when this pattern changes. Winter will make a triumphant return!!

[Ntxw]

Late January and early Feb 1982 has appeared a few times.

https://i.imgur.com/Nrvmcxf.png

https://i.imgur.com/TBqZ8Xc.png

I think this will go down as one of the most anticipated/long drawn out pattern flips in Texas Winter history. We have been wating and and will continue to wait for what seems like forever when this pattern changes. Winter will make a triumphant return!!

I would keep expectations optimistic with reason. We can't be expecting something like what happened in December, that was a rare very short, but sharp type cold. This may start out more typical winter cold that we normally expect at least through the end of Jan. We just need the right system to produce some snow!

[Iceresistance]

Late January and early Feb 1982 has appeared a few times.

https://i.imgur.com/Nrvmcxf.png

https://i.imgur.com/TBqZ8Xc.png

I forget, what did Late January and into February 1982 feature?

[gpsnowman]

January 1982 was the only time I saw snow while living in San Antonio. 2nd grade recess was fun that day. Good memory. Of course when we moved San Antonio got pounced with an epic snowstorm in 1985. It was ok though. January and February 1985 were pretty good for DFW also.

[Ntxw]

You got to love the Euro look. So close to a major winter storm event.

[harp]

You got to love the Euro look. So close to a major winter storm event.

For what regions?

[Iceresistance]

Joe Bastardi said that the PDO is insanely negative, rivaling 1955.

[Ntxw]

You got to love the Euro look. So close to a major winter storm event.

For what regions?

Oklahoma and Texas. Trough is still digging end of the run though.

[Portastorm]

Per our NWS office, Austin for the second year in a row is experiencing its warmest first half of winter … despite that brief cold snap around Christmas. Hope you’re happy, wxman57.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is a super soaker for Texas

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just spent the last 30 minutes looking at the GFS runs. So many interesting things going on around the world on the model runs.
Model watching season is back. Here we go.

For Texas, like Ntx said, looks veeeeery interesting for you guys down there.

[txtwister78]

Really like this upcoming setup for late Jan into early Feb. Who said winter was over? I have a feeling the forum is about to get lively again in a good way unless you're one particular individual who prefers warm Florida type winters.

[Iceresistance]

Is this the dream setup on the 18z GFS?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif

[Brent]

Tulsa already mentioning wintry precip possible in the AFD and its still long range

[Ntxw]

Is this the dream setup on the 18z GFS?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh282-384.gif

Some pretty good cold and snowy analogs are showing up. We're only seeing glimpses right now. Maybe a couple of winter storms before the cold comes in later.