Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

While there are alot of variables for next weeks system, the system that just nailed the Panhandle disappeared from the models as well around this time frame. Must wait till about Sunday or Monday to see if the storm comes back.

[Brent]

After this last storm I'm not ruling anything out... that's for sure.

One encouraging thing is the air does look colder at the onset(although not bitterly cold a lot better)... I always had concerns about the fact it'd be in the 60s when the precip hit Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

I'm skeptical of the Euro operational run. Where's Rgv20? I'd like to know what the Euro ensembles are showing.

[hriverajr]

I tried to access 50 member ensembles on weatherbell...not working.

[Portastorm]

I tried to access 50 member ensembles on weatherbell...not working.

About next weekend -- we need that Baja low to kick out quicker like the 6z GFS op run showed. If it hangs back and doesn't phase with the polar jet, we're out of luck.

[hriverajr]

In our favor they have been kicking out this winter, albeit a bit slowly. Also very few times has the cold been so eastern based as the European shows. That Euro run just has a weird configuration at the surface that usually happens at the end of a cold intrusion, not the cold intrusion itself. I guess we will know more in about five more days or so. Without looking at specific things, GFS has tended to perform better in Texas this winter IMO.

[dhweather]

I tried to access 50 member ensembles on weatherbell...not working.

About next weekend -- we need that Baja low to kick out quicker like the 6z GFS op run showed. If it hangs back and doesn't phase with the polar jet, we're out of luck.

Last time around (7-10 days ago?), it seemed to take FOREVER for the Baja low to kick out. IF it had come earlier, we probably see wintry precip.

[hriverajr]

12 Z Euro continues to point to the east.

[orangeblood]

I'm skeptical of the Euro operational run. Where's Rgv20? I'd like to know what the Euro ensembles are showing.

Some of the Euro Ensemble members on the 00Z run, I'd say around 20-25%, continue to show a MAJOR winter storm across Texas for next weekend. Some of them almost look apocalyptic with 12-24 inches of snow from South Texas to the Red River. So if they are any indication, our odds of a storm are probably just that - around 20% at this time!!!

I'll let you know how the 12Z members look once they come in around 3pm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the odds are a bit better, say 40-50%. Like i said before, the models lost the storm we just went through for a small period as well. Impressive if it predicts this one from far out again like the last one.

[orangeblood]

12 Z Euro continues to point to the east.

But it's ensembles are further west with the Cold and further east with the Baja low, the plot thickens!!!!

12Z Euro has 20 of 51 members with a winter storm across Texas next weekend

[wxman57]

12 Z Euro continues to point to the east.

But it's ensembles are further west with the Cold and further east with the Baja low, the plot thickens!!!!

12Z Euro has 20 of 51 members with a winter storm across Texas next weekend

I counted 13 members with significant snow (outside of the Panhandle or west Texas) next weekend. There were 4-5 additional members with storms in the Panhandle and a couple tracking just north of the Red River. The operational run has temps down to 31-32 for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area on Super Bowl Sunday, which is the coldest day of the next 10 days. Zero snow across Texas that weekend. We have to get the cold back into NW and western Canada to have a chance at any significant cold (and a winter storm) across Texas. The current and projected flow pattern is not one that supports Arctic air down here. Need a big ridge over the Gulf of Alaska (and into NW Canada) to get the cross-Polar flow going again and cool down western Canada. Of course, that could change beyond 10 days.

Current ECMWF (below) has a large upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. The flow is straight into central British Columbia, making it hard to get really cold air into western Canada where it can then plunge down the Plains.

[Portastorm]

Here is a real nice summary discussion from WSI about how things look in the month ahead. Good discussion about the Baja low next week too.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/us-an-update-on-the-anticipated-cold-pattern/

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is a real nice summary discussion from WSI about how things look in the month ahead. Good discussion about the Baja low next week too.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/us-an-update-on-the-anticipated-cold-pattern/

Sounds like after a mild end to January we are in for a cooler than average February. Hopefully the Baja low kicks out right behind the Arctic front, sounds like the best timing would be right around Superbowl Sunday.

[ouamber]

Hello Texas buddies, I was curious out of the Euro ensembles how many showed snow in NE Oklahoma. I live in Tulsa, and this "winter" has been non-existent! We have only recorded .5 inch of snow...needless to say, that's horrible for us and the lack of moisture is causing a lot of fires. I hope we all can cash in on the 1st week of February. Thanks for all your hard work, I love reading this board:)

[dhweather]

The day wouldn't be complete without it.

[weatherdude1108]

The day wouldn't be complete without it.

Your signature map does not disappoint.

[weatherdude1108]

In this entire discussion, I only saw ONE sentence.

FXUS64 KEWX 232050
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PATCHY RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF I-35 AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RAINS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS THE TROUGH EXITS
OUR AREA. CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND SLOWLY DECREASING
DEWPOINTS SET THE STAGE FOR A FREEZE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE
AIRMASS MIXED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH INTO TEXAS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE SATURDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY FREEZES POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS
KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. PART OF THE LOW SPINS OFF BRINGING
A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN JUST WEST OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU MONDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH AN EASTERN STATES TROUGH TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE LOWER PECOS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. A POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXISTS NEXT WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

[Brent]

The day wouldn't be complete without it.

LOL!!!!!!!!!

I just want one good snowstorm, no rain to snow slop and no ice and then I'm fine with winter being over.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The day wouldn't be complete without it.

And there it is. Believe that was the one that bombed out to cat 5 12hrs before making landfall just west of grand isle. Still cutting up wood from all the trees down around here. Of course that is between digging out snow measured in feet thanks to all the 10-14 day blizzards we have been getting.