Texas Winter 2018-2019

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble snowfall mean is looking decent for TX over the next 2 weeks. 1 inch line is almost down to central TX.

I hate to be one of "those" people, but what does it show for Louisiana? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks.

Trace to 0.50 inch, which still isn't bad for an ensemble mean for southern Louisiana.

[Texas Snow]

12z Euro Ensemble snowfall mean is looking decent for TX over the next 2 weeks. 1 inch line is almost down to central TX.

I hate to be one of "those" people, but what does it show for Louisiana? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks.

Try this, free version:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather.html

[HockeyTx82]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086337314291355648

Ok so source region? The cold just appears out of no where? Looks to be to east for us, not coming from western Canada, right? Just thinking as to what wxman57 has been saying of late. Other then Twitter followers why would this be something to post, most likely a model run that will flip torch next run. Change my mind.

[HockeyTx82]

HRRR and the Euro give some hope to the N. Burbs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019011818/hrrr_asnow_scus_20.png

I'm ok with this, just a tad farther south and west, 50 miles.....

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086337314291355648

Ok so source region? The cold just appears out of no where? Looks to be to east for us, not coming from western Canada, right? Just thinking as to what wxman57 has been saying of late. Other then Twitter followers why would this be something to post, most likely a model run that will flip torch next run. Change my mind.

Wxman57 is cherry picking his cold source. Sure west-central Canada is the preferable spot for cold to dive into Texas, due to the natural westerly flow of the hemispheric patterns. However it IS cold up in Canada, centered around Hudson Bay. It will remain so. The very cold runs, pushes this lobe of cold when the mass is shoved south-southwest-ish. The runs that are less cold is when it naturally flows southeastward. There is no torch, we've yet to see a torch this winter.

Below is the GFS initialization this morning.

[harp]

12z Euro Ensemble snowfall mean is looking decent for TX over the next 2 weeks. 1 inch line is almost down to central TX.

I hate to be one of "those" people, but what does it show for Louisiana? I don't have access to the Euro. Thanks.

Try this, free version:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather.html

Thank you!

[orangeblood]

12z Euro drops the arctic hammer across much of the U.S. by next weekend. Near 20F for Houston next Sunday morning.

Coldest anomalies are by far to the east of Texas though. Still very cold though. Heck it has Atlanta headed down to 0 towards the end of the run.

.


* glancing blow *

I wouldn’t call lows in the teen consecutive nights a “glancing blow”..

[Texas Snow]

19Z HRRR has me (and all of Plano) under the lonely snow blob at 7am when I might actually see it.

[orangeblood]

This pattern has an incredible amount of potential that any winter weather lover should get excited about from the Plains Eastward...of course there’s no way to know exactly where but just be happy you’re in the game!!!

[weatherdude1108]

I know it's not technically Texas weather, but just sharing other Winter weather.

Yosemite National Park looks like Narnia covered in winter snow
http://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/lifesty ... I2?ocid=sf

[South Texas Storms]

This pattern has an incredible amount of potential that any winter weather lover should get excited about from the Plains Eastward...of course there’s no way to know exactly where but just be happy you’re in the game!!!

I agree...there's definitely a lot of potential for frozen precipitation across much of the eastern half of the U.S. over the next few weeks. Several winter storms will be possible, even across southern portions of the country. Lots of cold air will likely be around. We just need to time moisture and disturbances right!

[BTAYLOR5021]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

[Ralph's Weather]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

Sorry but this weekend has nothing to do with the upcoming pattern change. This weekend is just a Pacific disturbance, next week is the beginning of the Hudson PV setting up shop. Two very different patterns.

[Cerlin]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

I understand your pain, snow droughts suck and yes this has been a bad few years for winter. But the locals calling it the coldest air of the season aren’t at fault and neither is anyone else but Mother Nature. There’s plenty of indications that things are getting better. This weekend wasn’t supposed to be the marquee event of the season—it was just supposed to be a precursor of things to come with our pattern changing. Look at Canada—it’s very cold. Look at the models—sure, they’re wildly inconsistent, but you can’t deny the ensembles all agreeing on cold, and they’re showing multiple bouts of potential winter storms. The pattern hasn’t even fully shifted yet...just give it time and patience. As it has been said prior on here...these things aren’t overnight. Just have patience and don’t give up. And if you do, I can’t stop you, but don’t bring us down with you—I’m still hopeful!

[Ralph's Weather]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086337314291355648

Ok so source region? The cold just appears out of no where? Looks to be to east for us, not coming from western Canada, right? Just thinking as to what wxman57 has been saying of late. Other then Twitter followers why would this be something to post, most likely a model run that will flip torch next run. Change my mind.

Wxman57 is cherry picking his cold source. Sure west-central Canada is the preferable spot for cold to dive into Texas, due to the natural westerly flow of the hemispheric patterns. However it IS cold up in Canada, centered around Hudson Bay. It will remain so. The very cold runs, pushes this lobe of cold when the mass is shoved south-southwest-ish. The runs that are less cold is when it naturally flows southeastward. There is no torch, we've yet to see a torch this winter.

Below is the GFS initialization this morning.

https://images2.imgbox.com/81/ee/HiXGKVo1_o.png

THis is the source region to follow going after the weekend. It will modify more than if it was out of WC Canada but that is cold enough to still keep us plenty cold enough for snow even after it takes circuitous path to get here. And when the waves come their orientation will actually be better to pull up Pacific moisture than a straight N/S push. From Hudson Bay to N Plains to NM to grab some moisture offers some fun potential. I do not expect many severe cold mornings but all we need is 20s and even 30s for snow. A few low teens is always nice to reset the weed and bug populations though.

[Rgv20]

Come on its January! Toasty afternoon in the RGV...wxman57 would enjoy this temperature down here....

[sphelps8681]

Don't want to take away the hopes of the Dallas folks but what are the chances that East Tx north of Beaumont might get in on a little action. We are always so excited around here since we don't always see much if any of the white stuff.

[Tireman4]

Come on its January! Toasty afternoon in the RGV...wxman57 would enjoy this temperature down here....

http://i67.tinypic.com/16hupdv.jpg

Who do you think is in charge down there? LOL

[spencer817]

Come on its January! Toasty afternoon in the RGV...wxman57 would enjoy this temperature down here....

http://i67.tinypic.com/16hupdv.jpg

Who do you think is in charge down there? LOL

I think he hates DFW the most out of any area! LOL

[Tejas89]

Please can we stop hyping up this less than winter...Sunday we went from 35/27 to 50/37 in Dfw with no snow...everytime its a bust...4th time this winter.....I'm so over this. We literally have to start taking these models with a grain of salt untill the event is at least 12 hours out. All major arctic intrusions are always southeast or east coast. Let's just accept our climate in the south is not what it once was ten years ago. I'm over it!! It's hard to even predict arctic airmasses now...smh...yet the locals on social media are calling saturday the coldest air of the season. False...

El Nino, La Nina, La Nada... doesn't matter. We don't get the extreme arctic air as often anymore. Exceptions occur, of course, but the change in frequency is remarkable. I saw some discussion of Dungan and Taft earlier in this thread, and they had a harder job back then forecasting true blue northers that are so rare nowadays. We're talking 60's to 10's/20's type fronts, and then staying there for a few days. Those fronts would often be accompanied by a significant sleet or ice event.

North Texas most certainly does not get the winter sleet and ice storms it used to see, not the threat or frequency of such... and that's been the case for a while now.