FW NWS DISCUSSION...one of the most aggressive long range forecasts I've seen out of them re: winter weather
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday onward/
Key Messages:
(1) Below normal temperatures will continue through the week, with
much below normal to near record low temperatures possible by the
weekend. Dangerously cold wind chill factors will be possible by
Sunday.
(2) There will be multiple chances at frozen precipitation, with
the best chances looking to be Wednesday night, Thursday, and
Saturday. The amounts and degree of impacts are highly uncertain
at this time.
(3) There will certainly be changes to the forecast over the next
several days, but now is the time to review plans for very cold
weather.
Morning surface analysis shows a large Arctic air mass across the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, though the southern edge of this
air mass remains to our north at this time. The Arctic air mass
should overspread our region later tonight as a cold front moves
south (see short-term forecast discussion).
Successive shots of cold air can be expected through the next
several days. The first will arrive early Wednesday morning. Some
precipitation is expected to develop near and behind the cold
front. Some light freezing rain may be possible across our
northwestern counties, but surface temperatures should be warm
enough (i.e. above 30 F) to prevent significant accumulations.
Cold air advection will continue through the day Wednesday, with
freezing temperatures forecast across much of North Texas by
Thursday morning. With ascent increasing across the region in
response to a digging shortwave trough aloft, another round of
precipitation is forecast. Given the typical shallow nature of
these Arctic cold fronts, the dominant precipitation types should
be freezing rain and/or sleet where temperatures fall below
freezing. The good news is that the forecast models indicate light
QPF, which should limit ice accumulations to no more than a few
hundredths of an inch. The probability of accumulating freezing
rain will increase the farther northwest one goes.
By the weekend, another strong push of cold air is forecast across
the Southern Plains, with the cold front arriving on Saturday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show much below normal temperatures through
the weekend, but vary significantly with regards to just how cold
it gets. The GFS is much colder than the ECMWF and indicates
temperatures that would be among the coldest we have seen here in
decades. Specifically, the GFS is forecasting low temperatures by
Sunday morning to be near 0 F (and possibly even sub-zero near the
Red River). If this came to fruition, it would be the coldest
temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989 (and the
coldest temperatures in North Texas in my lifetime!). The ECMWF is
not as cold, but still rather chilly. The ECMWF shows
temperatures on Sunday morning bottoming out in the upper teens to
lower 20s, which while still cold, is not quite as remarkable as
the GFS. The official forecast is colder than the ECMWF, but is
much warmer than the GFS`s extremely cold temperatures. It should
be stressed that while there is a wide range of possible outcomes
ranging from near 0 F to the mid 20s, either way, we are looking
to have the coldest temperatures of the winter so far by this
weekend and into early next week. Even in the warmer solutions,
precautions will need to be taken to protect people, plants, pets,
and pipes. Furthermore, additional rounds of frozen precipitation
will be possible with the initial cold front passage on Saturday,
then again by Monday as another upper-level shortwave trough
moves through. Right now, the models are all over the place with
regards to amounts, so the message for now is some amount of
frozen precipitation looks likely across the region on Saturday
and possibly again on Monday, but amounts are highly uncertain at
this time.
Godwin
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
