Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

I haven't been that cold outside in a long time. That was awesome! Now i'll stay inside for 72 hours, lol. I like the sound of crunchy grass in the morning.

[Tireman4]

Of some concern still is the possibility of additional precipitation on Friday
(most likely in the form of snow!?). Model soundings still hinting
at this as another disturbance moves across/embedded within the SW
flow aloft. While available moisture will be the main drawback...a
look at the current WV imagery and all The Mess near the western mexi-
can coast does give pause.

Maybe the Canadian was not on crack after all!!!

[jasons2k]

Jeff's update 6:48 AM:

Arctic Front entering SE TX

Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 900pm tonight to 900am Sunday for all SE TX counties.

Preparations for this cold event should be completed as soon as possible.

Discussion:

Arctic boundary racing SE at 20-30mph this morning and is currently along a line from near Del Rio to just north of College Station. Boundary should reach the coast by mid morning and clear the outer waters by noon. Widespread rainfall has developed over SE TX…much more than was expected and heavier. Additionally, drizzle and freezing drizzle has developed behind the arctic front over N TX and some of the ASOS stations are reporting light snow. Models did not handle the rainfall with this event very well at all and this gives me pause for Friday…see below. Very strong N winds of 20-30mph with gust to 40mph will be common behind the front this afternoon with wind chills falling into the teens. Winds will stay up overnight leading to wind chills in the low teens and single digits on Friday morning. Strong N winds will also drive water levels down to around 2 feet below normal in the inland bays by Friday. Rainfall should end from N to S around noon today before any freezing surface temperatures arrive into our region…may be close from College Station to Huntsville. Profiles do not support sleet until later this afternoon and at that point the moisture should be well off the coast however would not rule out an ice pellet or two before noon N of I-10.

Will maintain the onset of freezing/sub-freezing temperatures across our northern counties by early afternoon and then to I-10 by early evening and the coast by midnight. Will not see highs rise back above freezing until Saturday afternoon along and N of US 59 and likely Sunday over our northern counties. With all the rainfall this morning, it may be hard to get everything dry before the onset of freezing temperatures. Extremely dry air mass and strong north winds should help dry things up, but I would expect a few puddles to remain and turn to ice this evening and overnight…not only on bridges and overpasses but also surface streets given the very cold surface temperatures forecasted. Extreme caution should be used at any locations that appear wet on any concrete surface through Sunday and on all bridges and overpasses. TXDOT did treat the bridges yesterday with the anti-ice agent so this should help this afternoon into this evening if it is not washed off from the heavier rainfall occurring right now. Will have to see at that point if the dry air and north winds have done their thing and dried the pavement.

Friday:

Models continue to show a disturbance moving across the region. Air mass is forecast to be very dry at the surface with dewpoints falling into the single digits. Models are not showing much if any QPF over the region as moisture is based in the mid levels with anything falling evaporating prior to reaching the surface. However, a look at water vapor images shows an impressive plume of moisture pulling NE from Baja this morning and the fact that the models were too dry this morning does perk my interest. Within such arctic cold domes it does not take much moisture to produce precipitation. For now will continue a cloudy but dry forecast for Friday with temperatures holding near freezing all day. Will watch guidance closely for any signs of better moisture with this system and water vapor/obs for similar indications. Forecast soundings are completely frozen after midnight this evening so anything that falls and reaches the ground on Friday would be snow.

Weekend:

Skies clear Friday evening as massive 1050mb arctic high noses into TX. Winds will weaken and with very low dewpoints widespread teens can be expect both Saturday and Sunday mornings (see lows below). Many locations along and N of I-10 will remain at or below freezing from this evening through midday Sunday or roughly for about 60 hours. Will likely see another freeze Monday morning as the arctic high only slowly gives ground…feel models will be too fast in modifying this air mass given how dry it will be and how large the arctic high is and this may cause some issues as the next system approaches early next week.
Preparations:

Final preparations for this extended cold event should be completed this morning. Remember that anything wet will be frozen by tomorrow morning, so make sure the sprinkler systems are shut off to prevent ice development on surface streets and sidewalks. It is possible that many subdivision “lakes” will develop a layer of ice especially in areas where the surface temperatures does not rise above freezing until Saturday or Sunday along with many cattle stock ponds.

Forecast Lows:

North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty

Friday: 20-23

Saturday: 17-19

Sunday: 16-18

Monday: 26-29

North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land

Friday: 25-27

Saturday: 20-22

Sunday: 20-23

Monday: 29-30

Galveston Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 28-30

Saturday: 27-29

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 32-34

Matagorda Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 29-31

Saturday: 27-29

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 32-36


Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):

Friday: 25-27

Saturday: 21-23

Sunday: 22-24

Monday: 29-32

[HockeyTx82]

No work today, UNT is closed.

Strange, the roads look ok around town. I wonder if the closure is because of the cold. I know that having UNT, TWU open would cause a huge power drawl on the city and seeing as the students are not back yet perhaps they closed to help save power consumption? IF that is the case then I suspect I will be home tomorrow as well because the high temp tomorrow is the same for today. We shall see.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

[cperez1594]

Question. I am from the Rio Grande Valley. I see there is a abundant amount of moisture near Mexico moving northeast. Is there any chance that we might get some prec. later tonight. They have us near freezing tonight. Any thought?

[srainhoutx]

Question. I am from the Rio Grande Valley. I see there is a abundant amount of moisture near Mexico moving northeast. Is there any chance that we might get some prec. later tonight. They have us near freezing tonight. Any thought?

We will have to wait and see. Guidance has struggled with the airmass in many different ways. Let's see what the NWS says as well as the 12Z runs. Maybe some further refinement in the "finer details" near the lunch hour.

[wxgirl69]

I live in Deer Park and it's 8:50 am and it still is not that cold yet.. I am experiencing the occasional wind gusts.

[Portastorm]

I live in Deer Park and it's 8:50 am and it still is not that cold yet.. I am experiencing the occasional wind gusts.

Don't worry ... it's coming. The real cold air hits about two hours after the wind starts.

As of 9 am, its now 25 in the Hill Country (Fredericksburg), 30 in Round Rock, 32 here in downtown Austin but surrounding areas just outside the city are now in the upper 20s. Again, it was 53 degrees at 4 am so you get an idea how quickly the bottom is falling out.

No freezing drizzle or anything though. Just low clouds and gusty north winds.

[iorange55]

Lol I love how Evan Andrews fox 4 meteorologist was talking about how it should only be cold rain next week all morning he said that. Then at the end of the newscast he said "then again it is 6-7 days out, and this has been the winter to forget"

[wxgirl69]

I live in Deer Park and it's 8:50 am and it still is not that cold yet.. I am experiencing the occasional wind gusts.

Don't worry ... it's coming. The real cold air hits about two hours after the wind starts.

As of 9 am, its now 25 in the Hill Country (Fredericksburg), 30 in Round Rock, 32 here in downtown Austin but surrounding areas just outside the city are now in the upper 20s. Again, it was 53 degrees at 4 am so you get an idea how quickly the bottom is falling out.

No freezing drizzle or anything though. Just low clouds and gusty north winds.

Yeah... It's going to get cold... Now lets just wait and see what that East Pacific moisture is going to do...

[srainhoutx]

NAM has longer lasting cold and perhaps a hint of Upper Level Energy from the secondary Vort Max on Saturday. I suspect we will see below freezing temps for at least 72 hours N of I-10.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[rkbjunior]

I live in Deer Park and it's 8:50 am and it still is not that cold yet.. I am experiencing the occasional wind gusts.

Don't worry ... it's coming. The real cold air hits about two hours after the wind starts.

As of 9 am, its now 25 in the Hill Country (Fredericksburg), 30 in Round Rock, 32 here in downtown Austin but surrounding areas just outside the city are now in the upper 20s. Again, it was 53 degrees at 4 am so you get an idea how quickly the bottom is falling out.

No freezing drizzle or anything though. Just low clouds and gusty north winds.

The weatherbug station across the street from where my kids go to school in Georgetown is at 24.7. It's dropped 5 degrees since I left the house at 7:00.

[Portastorm]

rkbjunior, I believe it given the way temps have dropped around here since I got up at 5:15 a.m.

Given what temps we see upstream towards San Angelo/Abilene ... we could drop into the lower and mid 20s by afternoon. Wow!

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to keep an eye out W. There are a couple of features that are note worthy. Surface Low reflection near S CA/AZ and several Upper Air disturbances moving E. What has been raising eyebrows are these features. When you see HGX and other Pro Mets mention that it gives them "pause", we need to be aware that there is something afoot. I am not saying it will snow, so let me make that perfectly clear. But, as you know I have pointed out the GGEM for many days and sometimes 'every dog has his day' via various guidance. That's why we use "all the tools in the toolbox" Here's the WV Imagery. Judge for your self. Regardless, it's going to be very cold and very windy with extremely low wind chills.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[Texas Snowman]

Little freezing drizzle overnight in the Denison/Sherman area. Some slick bridges and roadways produced some accidents this morning.

Now partly cloudy and a little airish outside - 19 degrees in Denison at the moment. Wood burning stove is getting a good workout today for sure!

[srainhoutx]

HPC Prelim Extended Disco...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
859 AM EST THU JAN 07 2010

VALID 12Z MON JAN 11 2010 - 12Z THU JAN 14 2010

...PRELIM UPDATE....

NEW 00Z/07 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS CLEARLY AGREE ON THE NRN
STREAM OF WESTERLIES BECOMING DOMINANT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NRN STREAM DOMINANCE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CONUS/SRN CANADA TUE
DAY 5 AND BEYOND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO
WORK FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE CHILLY ERN PORTION OF THE
LOWER 48.

THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE E COAST. WE
WERE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE COULD IMPROVE THE UPDATED FORECAST BY
BLENDING ANY NEW DATA INTO THE EARLIER GRAPHICS SO WE LEFT THE
EARLY PRELIM GRAPHIC AS IS. THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
BELOW.

ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE FEATURE
REACHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF
THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION BELOW NORMAL INTO DAY 5.
THEREAFTER...A BREAK IS THE COLD SPELL IS POSSIBLE AS HEIGHTS ARE
FCST TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHERE ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND DAY 5
AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. ON DAYS 6-7...THE ECMWF
AND CMC WERE LARGELY SIMILAR WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM REACHING FROM
SRN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM SFC DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE ATLC
COAST EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5 WITH
CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SERN STATES.

A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD TO THE ROCKIES...WITH WARMER
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK
PACIFIC IMPULSES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
INTO CALIFORNIA BY DAY 5. THIS ENERGY IS FCST TO CONTINUE INLAND
DURING DAYS 6-7...RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER NM/TX. THE 00Z GFS/CMC ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEFS MEAN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

HEDGE/FLOOD

[wxman22]

Euro is starting to back away from the event it was showing early next week and the gfs has even started to back away from it's fantasy storm late next week not liking the trends COULD just be a cold rain.

[Ntxw]

GFS has been quite boring regarding snow as of late

[Portastorm]

Some breaks in the overcast now ... temps at or below freezing across the entire Austin metro area as of 11 a.m.

[txagwxman]

Balmy 38.3 in Tomball yawn.