Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

Joe Bastardi has about as much credibility as anyone on this predominately amateur forum over the past two winters. His winter forecast maps from start of winter are almost the complete opposite of what has actually verified so far...he grasping for straws like the rest of us!!

[Ptarmigan]

From Joey B:

"@BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10."

Hmmmmmmm, if the forecast is true, February could be cold like in 2010.

[GaryHughes]

I completely agree with Ntwx and Portastorm ... go ahead and cash that check, it ain't over till the fat lady sings!

That Snowy weather we all love (weatherman57 is a closet cold lover) is coming back for one more slow dance!

[wxman57]

I believe Bastardi is talking about more cold for New England, not Texas. And even then it's unlikely they'll see anything like they've seen for the past week in terms of cold. All long-range guidance points to a considerable warm-up across most of the U.S. in the coming weeks. The pattern is changing away from one that would bring cold Canadian air southward into the U.S. (By the way, I don't like cold but I do like snow.)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I believe Bastardi is talking about more cold for New England, not Texas. And even then it's unlikely they'll see anything like they've seen for the past week in terms of cold. All long-range guidance points to a considerable warm-up across most of the U.S. in the coming weeks. The pattern is changing away from one that would bring cold Canadian air southward into the U.S. (By the way, I don't like cold but I do like snow.)

I'm guessing by the above that we won't be seeing this again this winter??? (ever so hopeful here)

[wxman57]

I'm guessing by the above that we won't be seeing this again this winter??? (ever so hopeful here)

Everything is pointing to an influx of much warmer Pacific air into British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan in the coming weeks. This would benefit both of us.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm guessing by the above that we won't be seeing this again this winter??? (ever so hopeful here)

Everything is pointing to an influx of much warmer Pacific air into British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan in the coming weeks. This would benefit both of us.

sending you a frozen kiss Wxman57!!!!! ;D

Thank you and now I can inform my ever so curious co-workers of the above. This winter they started asking me what I read here and have been impressed, though not happy, with the accuracy.

There will be HUGE smiles at work today.

[Big O]

I believe Bastardi is talking about more cold for New England, not Texas. And even then it's unlikely they'll see anything like they've seen for the past week in terms of cold. All long-range guidance points to a considerable warm-up across most of the U.S. in the coming weeks. The pattern is changing away from one that would bring cold Canadian air southward into the U.S. (By the way, I don't like cold but I do like snow.)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Actually, JB is talking about middle February to early March, which is beyond the 8-10 day pattern you posted. Moreover, he believes it will be coast to coast cold, which is supported by the MJO's progged movement into phases 2-3.

[wxman57]

I believe Bastardi is talking about more cold for New England, not Texas. And even then it's unlikely they'll see anything like they've seen for the past week in terms of cold. All long-range guidance points to a considerable warm-up across most of the U.S. in the coming weeks. The pattern is changing away from one that would bring cold Canadian air southward into the U.S. (By the way, I don't like cold but I do like snow.)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Actually, JB is talking about middle February to early March, which is beyond the 8-10 day pattern you posted. Moreover, he believes it will be coast to coast cold, which is supported by the MJO's progged movement into phases 2-3.

We'll see about that. He's quite biased toward cold weather, though I'm somewhat biased toward warm weather.

Meanwhile, the warming temps up north over the next few weeks should put a dent in that snowcover map of the U.S.

[Portastorm]

I don't know about that snowcover issue, sir. With the models and MJO forecasts showing an active southern stream in the weeks ahead, it is going to have to be real warm to our north to keep this precipitation as rain only. Then again, I am biased towards the colder solutions.

[orangeblood]

GFS and its Ensembles look like they're garbage at this time, I would strongly advise not to pay attention to them until they figure out the MJO progression. Just look at the latest GFS Ensemble MJO forecast compared to the Euro....

GFS


Euro


Not sure how you can even put a decent forecast together beyond 4-5 days with differences like the one shown above...

[Ntxw]

GFS and its Ensembles look like they're garbage at this time, I would strongly advise not to pay attention to them until they figure out the MJO progression. Just look at the latest GFS Ensemble MJO forecast compared to the Euro....


Not sure how you can even put a decent forecast together beyond 4-5 days with differences like the one shown above...

Yup, it has tried to put shortwaves all over the place especially the system in week 2. The Atlantic is changing, its going to jam the pattern so I don't expect them to be of good use with storms

[horselattitudesfarm]

Fascinating study from Scripps Institute of Oceanography

"Study finds energy use in cities has global climate effects:

Researchers find that heat given off by metropolitan areas can lead to continental-scale winter warming in high latitudes

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. ⎯ The heat generated by everyday energy consumption in metropolitan areas is significant enough to influence the character of major atmospheric circulation systems, including the jet stream during winter months, and cause continental-scale surface warming in high latitudes, according to a trio of climate researchers that includes Ming Cai, a professor in Florida State University's Department of Meteorology.

Led by Guang Zhang, a research meteorologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, the scientists report in the journal Nature Climate Change that waste heat released in major cities in the Northern Hemisphere causes as much as 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F) of continental-scale winter warming in high latitudes of the North America and Eurasian continents. They added that this effect helps to explain the disparity between actual observed warming in the last half-century and the amount of warming predicted by computer models that only include anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols.

he authors report that the influence of urban heat can widen the jet stream at the extratropics, or area outside the tropics. They add that the heating is not uniform. Partially counterbalancing it, the changes in major atmospheric systems cool areas of Europe by as much as 1 degree C, with much of the temperature decrease occurring in the fall."

I'd be curious how this affects Texas weather. I don't think the models account for this. Just another example of the 'butterfly effect'.

[wxman57]

Lots of 70s forecast for Houston highs over the next 2 weeks. I prefer to believe the models even when they're not forecasting bitter cold. Everything I see points to a warm-up. MJO signal looks weak, and then it may be only an indicator of increasing precip chances down south not cold weather. I see a lot of biking in my future over the next 2 weeks. I'm off to release more butterflies in my back yard...

[Tireman4]

Lots of 70s forecast for Houston highs over the next 2 weeks. I prefer to believe the models even when they're not forecasting bitter cold. Everything I see points to a warm-up. MJO signal looks weak, and then it may be only an indicator of increasing precip chances down south not cold weather. I see a lot of biking in my future over the next 2 weeks. I'm off to release more butterflies in my back yard...

Someone must stop this man. He is pushing the Earth closer to the Sun. He has killed off Winter for lower Texas. Next thing you know, it will be 100 in January. I cannot take it anymore. Do you not have any powers left in your Weather Ball, Porta? Has the Dark Lord of Summer taken completely over? Will the Astros ever get to .500? Aiigghhhh

[wxman57]

100 degrees in January, now there's an idea! I saw that Corpus Christi hit a record 90 degrees yesterday. The article I saw showed people at the beach enjoying the warm weather. Key word - enjoying. I'll bet that no one is on the beach there today enjoying the mid 60s temps and 30+ mph northwest winds, nor did I notice any coverage of people in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. enjoying the recent bitter cold. People hate cold weather - they enjoy warm weather.

New GFS shows a gradual warm-up over the next 7-10 days then another front similar to last night's. However, the air in its source region should have warmed considerably by then. I'm thinking I may not have gone warm enough in my prediction for 34 degrees as the coldest Bush Airport would see in February.

[Portastorm]

Lots of 70s forecast for Houston highs over the next 2 weeks. I prefer to believe the models even when they're not forecasting bitter cold. Everything I see points to a warm-up. MJO signal looks weak, and then it may be only an indicator of increasing precip chances down south not cold weather. I see a lot of biking in my future over the next 2 weeks. I'm off to release more butterflies in my back yard...

Someone must stop this man. He is pushing the Earth closer to the Sun. He has killed off Winter for lower Texas. Next thing you know, it will be 100 in January. I cannot take it anymore. Do you not have any powers left in your Weather Ball, Porta? Has the Dark Lord of Summer taken completely over? Will the Astros ever get to .500? Aiigghhhh

It is true that this man has ruled the roost for the better part of two consecutive "winters." The PWC is doing everything it can and researching new methods of drawing winter weather to the state. Even the Grey Goose consumption levels have been cut dramatically!

[Ntxw]

I see porta had a handle on la la land gfs. Send wxman to dallas tireman, its 50 and the wind is howling 30-40mph from the north. Can't keep my steering wheel straight

[weatherdude1108]

I gotta laugh to keep from crying ... I'm watching rainfall on radar move its way to the north and northeast of Austin. Once again we have a frontal passage with no rain. I'd say we got nothing but we did get an outflow boundary with wind gusts. Ooooo ... exciting.

I'm telling you folks, it won't be long now before Austin is known as the "Gateway to the Chihuahuan Desert."

I feel your pain down here in SA Porta. Unfortunately we missed out on this one. I hope this pattern doesn't continue through the spring. The long range models look promising for us who missed out this time though.

The line of storms literally exploded once it passed I-35. Portions of northeast and east Travis County will see some rain ... not much but some. But most of the metro area here got nothing. I hope you're right STS about down the road.[/quote]


All I got were sprinkles in my neck of the woods. They evaporated as fast as they fell. But, the storm indicator down arrow on my weather station was blinking prior to the sprinkles! First time it blinked I got three inches. Second time, got three sprinkles. Two for two!
Seriously though, I'm enjoying the cooler weather today, but this is a bad situation we're in water-wise.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Portastorm]

OK, so it is the GFS. OK, so it is the GFS beyond 300 hours. OK, so it is the GFS predicting weather two weeks from now. But what the heck, it's all we got. Yes that is a 1040mb-plus high coming down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains!!

Look, enjoy, get excited. Winter shall return to Texas in February!!



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