Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

FWIW, here's my take on the last few pages:

Porta, Ntxw, etc: likely pattern change is coming, winter will likely come back to Texas in some form, keep your fingers crossed.

Heat Miser: Everyone above is wrong, nothing extreme or abnormal is in the cards, go ahead and cancel winter.

No, I see a pattern change as well - away from mild temps back to normal winter temps. I think that some want cold so badly that they're looking for any hint of potential extreme cold/snow. And there might be a chance that I hate cold so much that I look for the warmth in the model runs. Perhaps a little of both.

PS: And remember, I'm just talking about THIS month - not February.

[srainhoutx]

No, I see a pattern change as well - away from mild temps back to normal winter temps. I think that some want cold so badly that they're looking for any hint of potential extreme cold/snow. And there might be a chance that I hate cold so much that I look for the warmth in the model runs. Perhaps a little of both.

The frost was so heavy this morning here in NW Harris County the grass was even covered with it. Second heaviest frost of the winter season from where I sit.

[wxman57]

No, I see a pattern change as well - away from mild temps back to normal winter temps. I think that some want cold so badly that they're looking for any hint of potential extreme cold/snow. And there might be a chance that I hate cold so much that I look for the warmth in the model runs. Perhaps a little of both.

The frost was so heavy this morning here in NW Harris County the grass was even covered with it. Second heaviest frost of the winter season from where I sit.

Glad I don't live up in the northern U.S. (north of I-10) like you.

[Kludge]

JB tweet from earlier this afternoon regarding 10-15 day weather:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled


Now he wasn't specific as to who should prepare, but he is giving credence to those on this board seeing a significant pattern change toward near-record cold for much of the central/eastern CONUS.

[MississippiWx]

You guys must be just off the edge of the cold shots coming in the rest of this week and into next week. Euro/GFS look promising for persistent troughing/cool to cold weather in the Eastern part of the country. We are supposed to be back down into the low 20s a couple more times this week. Cold winter so far here in South MS!

[wxman57]

JB tweet from earlier this afternoon regarding 10-15 day weather:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparation Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled


Now he wasn't specific as to who should prepare, but he is giving credence to those on this board seeing a significant pattern change toward near-record cold for much of the central/eastern CONUS.

Saw that, he's definitely a "cold-mongerer". But I think he's mainly talking about the northern MS Valley (Minnesota), Ohio Valley and east, not Texas, at least as far as power outages and pipe-busting cold. I remain the "warm-mongerer".

Nice winter day across central to SE TX. Sunny and temps in the low 70s. That's about as cold as winter should get.

Just saw this tweet by JB:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous

I wonder where he's seeing those ensembles out to day 15? They're only out to 84hrs on WeatherBELL's site.

[Big O]

JB Tweet: "I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous."

I can't wait to see them. They are rolling in now. I wonder where the cold is centered.

[Tireman4]

Saw that, he's definitely a "cold-mongerer". But I think he's mainly talking about the northern MS Valley (Minnesota), Ohio Valley and east, not Texas, at least as far as power outages and pipe-busting cold. I remain the "warm-mongerer".

Nice winter day across central to SE TX. Sunny and temps in the low 70s. That's about as cold as winter should get.

Speaking of cold-mongering, are you going skiing this year?

[wxman57]

JB Tweet: "I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous."

I can't wait to see them. They are rolling in now. I wonder where the cold is centered.

Do you subscribe to WeatherBELL premium? I do and I only see the ensembles out to 72hrs. Where does he see them so soon?

[wxman57]

Speaking of cold-mongering, are you going skiing this year?

Not this year. Still nursing a twisted knee and don't have anyone to go skiing with.

2009 at WinterPark Colorado.

[wxman57]

My tongue-in-cheek modification of Accuweather's winter forecast isn't turning out so well:

[orangeblood]

Anyone see the 12Z Euro EPO day 9-10 forecast ???? Incredible - 6.9 index....if that doesn't raise an eyebrow wxman57, I don't know what will

[Tireman4]

Speaking of cold-mongering, are you going skiing this year?

Not this year. Still nursing a twisted knee and don't have anyone to go skiing with.

2009 at WinterPark Colorado.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/meskiing.JPG

Look, its Bode Miller!!!

[Portastorm]

Figures. His ski jacket is RED.



Warm-mongerer, Heat Miser ... at least he's consistent.

[Big O]

Wxman57, I am a subscriber and at this time only out through hour 144. At hour 144, ensemble mean has strong ridge popping up over NW Canada and Alaska.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow:

Figures. His ski jacket is RED.



Warm-mongerer, Heat Miser ... at least he's consistent.

At least mine is BLUE!

[Portastorm]

Now, there's a man we can all trust!!

[orangeblood]

JB Tweet: "I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15. Outrageous."

I can't wait to see them. They are rolling in now. I wonder where the cold is centered.

He's not playing around, Euro Control run is off the charts - popping a 1055 HP over the Yukon at day 10 and sending pieces out, 5 day mean temps of some 30-40 deg below normal across the Northern and Central Plains in the 11-15 day range

[wxman57]

Wxman57, I am a subscriber and at this time only out through hour 144. At hour 144, ensemble mean has strong ridge popping up over NW Canada and Alaska.

I'm looking at the Euro emsembles 850mb temperature anomaly maps (out to 15 days). The center of the cold is over the Great Lakes. Texas is near or above normal in all maps beyond 10 days. Quite a bit above normal temps in NW Canada in the extended range.

The EC ensembles control run has considerably above-normal temps at 850mb across Texas. The cold enters Montana then moves east across Minnesota to the Great Lakes and New England in days 10-15. Coldest appears to reside over Wisconsin.

[orangeblood]

Wxman57, I am a subscriber and at this time only out through hour 144. At hour 144, ensemble mean has strong ridge popping up over NW Canada and Alaska.

I'm looking at the Euro emsembles 850mb temperature anomaly maps (out to 15 days). The center of the cold is over the Great Lakes. Texas is near or above normal in all maps beyond 10 days. Quite a bit above normal temps in NW Canada in the extended range.

The EC ensembles control run has considerably above-normal temps at 850mb across Texas. The cold enters Montana then moves east across Minnesota to the Great Lakes and New England in days 10-15. Coldest appears to reside over Wisconsin.

Not according to what I'm looking at (Euro Control Run), which has the center of the 5 day mean cold in the 10-15 centered over Eastern Montana, North Dakota into Minnesota. Just slightly east of what was forecast by the GFS in the 10-15 day for the early December cold snap but this time with MUCH Colder anomalies - which is saying something considering the normals for this time of year.

Here is a copy of the forecast in late November for the 5 day temp mean - just a little further west of what is currently projected on the EC: