Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

A friend of my wife said she was getting snow this afternoon. I think she is in the Hemphill area of Deep E TX.

[orangeblood]

The day wouldn't be complete without it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bvb5v8FCIAAMqTd.png

Don't hate on the Cat 5's, this board would be non-existent without them!!

[orangeblood]

Sorry heat miser, but there is nothing warm or even normal about the Upper Air Pattern depicted by both the Euro Ensembles and GFS....straight out of the Arctic Circle with the Ridge building into Alaska and Northwest Canada.

Euro ENS


GFS ENS

[Brent]

Weatherbug has me with a frozen mix Sun 2/1 and Mon 2/2 with highs in the mid 40s, lows 32/33

[orangeblood]

Hey wxman57, at your earliest convenience, please post your meteograms for the 00Z GFS run....you'll love the results


Some of those Euro Ensemble members don't look too crazy after all


Check out the GFS snowfall map across the US over the next 10 days....

[Portastorm]

Hey wxman57, at your earliest convenience, please post your meteograms for the 00Z GFS run....you'll love the results

Heh ... heh ... oh he's gonna love that run!

I know I do.

[Brent]

Hey wxman57, at your earliest convenience, please post your meteograms for the 00Z GFS run....you'll love the results


Some of those Euro Ensemble members don't look too crazy after all
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_34.png

Hold me.

Did that just happen

[orangeblood]

Pretty remarkable frontal passage, freezing line is advancing quicker then I can remember through the state right as the massive subtropical moisture plume is riding up and over the cold Arctic HP. It's a setup that's been on the table, some of the ensembles have showing it for days now. The HP is originating in the Arctic Circle with nothing but barbed wire between it and the Gulf Coast given the Upper Level Flow - Which contrary to what our resident heat miser is claiming is cross-polar flow

The timing has to be right but given a 1059 Arctic HP rushing south out of Alberta with a subtropical system lurking in Mexico, the players are on the field

[Ralph's Weather]

That would be incredible. We have been teased so much this winter with heavy rain and temps the 30s that you would figure we would get lucky at some point. We have over a week left on this roller coaster of model runs so I am not gonna get to excited overt official runs though I like the consistency of most runs showing a winter storm at that time.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Pretty remarkable frontal passage, freezing line is advancing quicker then I can remember through the state right as the massive subtropical moisture plume is riding up and over the cold Arctic HP. It's a setup that's been on the table, some of the ensembles have showing it for days now. The HP is originating in the Arctic Circle with nothing but barbed wire between it and the Gulf Coast given the Upper Level Flow

It is a dream scenario that rarely is seen in this region.

[Brent]

I do like how consistent the idea of a storm is... the signals are like screaming for something... I'm not ruling anything out at this point though... been burned so much in this blasted winter, but I know this storm has been there since it was 384 hours out and I laughed at it then... and we're almost halfway through the 384 hours and it's still there.

And we deserve a good blizzard for all this 32-33 and rain we've put up with.

[orangeblood]

A balmy 8 Deg F for DFW on Feb. 2 showing up on the GFS

[Brent]

A balmy 8 Deg F for DFW on Feb. 2 showing up on the GFS

Nice.

[Brent]

Ensembles look sweet too:

[Rgv20]

0z GFS temperature forecast for Monday Morning for the Dallas area Sorry Porta I have been really busy at work and home! I haven't posted as much as I would like!

[Brent]

LOL, I think the GFS has lost its mind... I think...

Even a little snow would be a mess with temps that cold

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD and SHV are already mentioning the winter storm next weekend.

[wxman57]

The GFS is just playing with you guys. It came to its senses by the next run. Euro still has temps in the 40s for Super Bowl weekend. Interesting that the same 00Z run that has such cold weather in Dallas keeps it north of Houston.

Make-Believe GFS Run from 00Z:


More Realistic Run from 06Z:


Same 00Z Run for Houston

[gpsnowman]

I'm trying to temper my expectations for the Super Bowl storm but I can't help but get a little excited. Like Brent mentioned in another post it is the consistency that has my interest. And now the NWS has chatter about it. Hmmmm.

[gpsnowman]

Orangeblood, if that GFS precip map verified, all the winter stress and frustration would disappear in an instant. Fingers crossed.