Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Harp.1]

You guys are getting close to nowcasting

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV sut way back on their forecast. Not sure I follow why looking at current data.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I will say that i DO think we will see snow in the Wichita Falls area Thursday. But how much is the question. It could be anything from just a few flurries to 1-3 inches of snow. I will like to see more data before completely leaning one way or the other.

Thanks for the WF specific info!

Definitely not looking good for measurable snow for us. We are too far NW this go around.

I think we will get some. To me this is a nowcasting event.

[Quixotic]

And then depression set in…..

You're behind, my friend. It's already trended back the right direction. Almost like a bug got into the system and corrupted all of the model runs at once.

ha! Yes. It’s kinda my way of saying I’m out on this event. I’m no met but I am a long time weenie.

[TropicalTundra]

Precip again on radar over Abilene. As Quixotic said though probably Virga since it’s dry

[Quixotic]

Precip again on radar over Abilene. As Quixotic said though probably Virga since it’s dry

Yep. Had same signature over my area this morning and it was virga very high up.

[gpsnowman]

Without Joe Bastardi we never would have heard the phrase "bathtub slosh theory". That still makes me giggle.

[Fifty Rock]

Precip again on radar over Abilene. As Quixotic said though probably Virga since it’s dry

Yep. Had same signature over my area this morning and it was virga very high up.

I’m about 30 miles Northeast of Abilene and right under the return and seeing very small flurries

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18767 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18767 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Ntxw]

WPC snow discussion this afternoon. Snipped the part for our region.

..Southern Plains and Southeast...
Days 2-3...

A potent positively tilted longwave trough containing plentiful
upper level energy from an aforementioned upper level low will
support a very strong upper level jet that stretches from West
Texas east through the Carolinas. Surface cyclogenesis will occur
Thursday night near the Gulf near the TX/LA border in the RER of
that jet, which will bed southward, thus maximizing the upper level
divergence over Louisiana. A plume of Gulf moisture will inject
into the low with maximum PWATs along the Texas Gulf Coast rising
to around 1.75 inches. While that level of moisture doesn't move
too far inland, a large fraction of it will, providing ample
moisture for the developing surface low. The associated low level
jet will advect much of that moisture up the Lower Mississippi
Valley.

Meanwhile, an Arctic air mass will be in place over the Central
Plains and Mid-South, resulting in a strong temperature gradient
which will both increase the forcing as well as lift that moisture
and effectively wring it out, resulting in widespread wintry
precipitation starting in TX/OK and spreading east as far as the
Appalachians by Friday evening. A tight temperature gradient on the
north and west side of the low will promote a similarly tight
gradient in precipitation amounts and in the areas where the cold
air at the surface is shallow, an area of freezing rain/sleet will
develop from east central Texas over northern Louisiana and into
central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, with widespread snow
north of that from north-central Texas east through the Tennessee
Valley. There will be some overlap with the snowfall footprint
from this most recent winter storm, but much of the greatest
impacts will be south of there. Thus, for many this will be a very
impactful snowfall event and the first winter storm of the season
for areas such as Dallas-Fort Worth north and east through the
Ozarks and into the Memphis and Nashville metro areas.

WPC probabilities for Major to locally Extreme impacts extend from
the DFW Metroplex area north and east to the Ozarks, with a thin
stripe of extreme impacts from snow and ice along the Sabine River
from Tyler and Longview, TX east to north and east of Shreveport
and
Monroe, LA. Just south of that stripe, moderate impacts from ice
are possible form central Texas north and west of Austin and San
Antonio to these same areas of east-central Texas and far northern
Louisiana. Expect considerable to substantial disruptions of daily
life. Travel is not advised.

The updated set of Key Messages are linked below.

Wegman

[AubreyStorm]

Via Denton County Office of Emergency Management

Is your home winter ready?

Take steps NOW to prepare your home and keep your family safe!

If you plan to use a fireplace or space heater, be extremely careful and follow the manufacturer’s instructions.

Wrap exposed pipes and let faucets drip during freezing temps to avoid burst pipes.

Make sure your smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are working. Change the batteries if needed.

Stock up on flashlights, batteries, blankets, and non-perishable food

Keep a winter emergency kit with essentials like water, first-aid supplies, and extra blankets.

[Quicksilver17]

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/1876783942126186772?s=46&t=t6uaykdJhHy0_m1NXPw4Cg

https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18767 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Oh so close to the coast!

[wxman22]

The 0z HRRR shows a potent winter storm. And shows the continues backbuilding to the west that some of the other models are showing.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HRRR says game on!

[Quixotic]

Precip again on radar over Abilene. As Quixotic said though probably Virga since it’s dry

Yep. Had same signature over my area this morning and it was virga very high up.

I’m about 30 miles Northeast of Abilene and right under the return and seeing very small flurries

Awesome. Means the column is cold all the way up. Seeing much stronger stream coming into western parts of NTX right now. Fingers crossed.

[Ntxw]

The 0z HRRR shows a potent winter storm. And shows the continues backbuilding to the west that some of the other models are showing.

https://i.ibb.co/HzXcTZh/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/NKvfDKX/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-10.png

850s cools as the upper disturbances crosses by, warms a bit as the precip weakens, at least along I-20. Looks mostly snow row of counties above.

[Ralph's Weather]

WPC has been highlighting the I20 corridor of E TX today while NWS has been shying away from it. Kinda interesting difference of opinion here. If the colder models verify Tyler to Longview may have the most severe impacts of anywhere as this is where sleet/snow would be maximized.

[Brandon8181]

The 0z HRRR shows a potent winter storm. And shows the continues backbuilding to the west that some of the other models are showing.

https://i.ibb.co/HzXcTZh/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/NKvfDKX/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-10.png

https://i.ibb.co/Dp8sHnw/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-12.png

Thats actually a very nice run by the HRRR and includes most across north Texas

[Gotwood]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it said here that the precipitation would lower temps at the surface?

[Brandon8181]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it said here that the precipitation would lower temps at the surface?

That’s correct, even if temperatures at surface level are above freezing, if the dynamics are in place for winter precipitation and it falls it will cool temperatures at lower levels.