Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Metalicwx220]

lol 384 hour gfs snow depth has most of the 2/3 u.s snow pack gone and portland and seattle's turn for winter weather or i should say the northwest with the whole state of washington and oregon in snow. I think that is about 12 inches in portland

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

18z DGEX for next week

[Metalicwx220]

18z DGEX for next week

HOLY GOD!!!!!!!!!!! SHIFT a little southeast.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS continues to advertise the potential for snow/flurries across n/nw Florida Wednesday night/Thursday next week with the potential of yet another snowstorm along the mid-atlantic with very cold air overspreading the entire east coast/FL...

H+162

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Radar showing some Snow return in Gulf Shores

[TideJoe]

18z DGEX for next week

8-10 inches for me...... too bad this is just another forecast 8 days out. Those rarely come close to fruition.

[Ivanhater]

But they sometimes do and that is why most of us are here....the chase.

[vbhoutex]

Radar showing some Snow return in Gulf Shores

Cold pocket? LOL

[BigB0882]

Looks like we might be getting more precip slowly coming on shore. BTR has been in a dry pocket most of the day.

[Kennethb]

Yes, as the upper feature approaches from the SW, I expect a wider area of precip of over south LA later tonight.

[BigB0882]

I hate to radar watch so closely but I am starting to wonder if Baton Rouge will see anything? The moisture keeps moving to our East or is staying off to our West. It is like we are in the middle of two different systems that are both moving away from us. Very odd.

[Kennethb]

I hate to radar watch so closely but I am starting to wonder if Baton Rouge will see anything? The moisture keeps moving to our East or is staying off to our West. It is like we are in the middle of two different systems that are both moving away from us. Very odd.

I expect that we will get some freezing rain later as the precip increases. Too, I expect that we will warm early in the morning to just above freezing, while points north and west get, for south LA, a decent icing.

[MississippiWx]

Getting a good bit of freezing rain here in Hattiesburg right now. Our NWS pushed back the arrival of warmer air to about 3AM or so, but they said they really don't know because the models have handled this system poorly. Moderate band of precip streaming in from the SW out of Louisiana should keep freezing rain in the area a while longer.

[MississippiWx]

00z GFS is BRUTALLY cold for the Central Gulf Coast States, eastward. The -20C isotherm makes it all the way down to Northern MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA. And yes, it still shows wrap around snow with the system that brings down this cold air. If the low tracks farther to the south and east, a big snowstorm could occur for a lot of the South. Hope trends go that way in the coming days.

[BigB0882]

Good trends, I also hope the Low can go further South. Or maybe after the temps set in we can have a Low pop up in the Gulf?

[MississippiWx]

Good trends, I also hope the Low can go further South. Or maybe after the temps set in we can have a Low pop up in the Gulf?

It's possible. For that to happen, though, we need some energy to lag behind the Arctic blast in the form of a cut-off low for example. You don't have to look any further than the event we are experiencing currently to see the setup we would need. With the deep cold air farther east, all soundings would be supportive of snow.

However, this entire event is still 6-7 days away. It's still possible that the models trend back the way they were before today. A fairly strong arctic front will precede that storm anyway, so it's going to depend on its track since cold air will be around.

[PTrackerLA]

I have no problem if next weeks system coats the entire south and Gulf coast with snow. I think we would all collectively be ready for spring the following week. We're bracing for up to a half inch of ice accumulation overnight and tomorrow morning and I can't believe we have another respectable looking shot of winter weather around here next week. I mean December and January were COLD by our standards, and look how February is starting off. Looks like ANOTHER East Coast blizzard too. This winter is really incredible.

[MississippiWx]

I have no problem if next weeks system coats the entire south and Gulf coast with snow. I think we would all collectively be ready for spring the following week. We're bracing for up to a half inch of ice accumulation overnight and tomorrow morning and I can't believe we have another respectable looking shot of winter weather around here next week. I mean December and January were COLD by our standards, and look how February is starting off. Looks like ANOTHER East Coast blizzard too. This winter is really incredible.

The possible blast next weekend has indications of being the Grande Finale. Models are showing signals of a major pattern change with more of a true La Nina pattern setting up across the nation. However, models have performed extremely bad in the long term this winter when it comes to pattern changes. January and February were *supposed* to be warmer for the Eastern US. Temps have consistently been below normal so far in 2011 in the East. The only exception has been Florida (especially Central to Southern) where mostly average temps have existed.

As we all know, this winter has been anything but normal.

[BigB0882]

After next week I will be more than ready for typical La Nina weather!