Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Both the GFS and ECMWF try to develop that low and bring it right up Texas next week, ECMWF is a little stronger with it, but it's small I imagine they're not handling it well. Still think there will be something next week.

[Ntxw]

I wonder if the ridge moving eastward will have any warming effects on that potential storm. Idk just not feeling it sigh

[txagwxman]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

[iorange55]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

Guess we shall see.

[double D]

It has warmed to 37 here in Austin under sunny skies. I honestly didn't think we would go above freezing today after dropping to 31 this morning.

[iorange55]

It has warmed to 37 here in Austin under sunny skies. I honestly didn't think we would go above freezing today after dropping to 31 this morning.

Yeah sun is the big player in that, but you'll drop pretty fast once the sun sets.

[Ntxw]

It warmed up from 23 this morning from 28 but by all means doesn't feel like it with the wind

[gboudx]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

Larry Cosgrove has mentioned a "January thaw" a couple times in his updates. Here's a little snippet of it:

A warming trend of sorts will commence early next week, in what appears to be a relatively brief "January Thaw" pattern. A significant winter storm will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in about eight days (courtesy of our nemesis, the subtropical jet stream). This disturbance will put an end to our moderation and may even provide some frozen precipitation for Houstonians, too, after a drenching rain.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

[Tejas89]

Not "feeling" it from NWS or elsewhere as far as the next couple of weeks. DFW forecast has us well above freezing by the time any precip arrives. AO forecasts I've seen on here suggest a respite from any arctic intrusions in the short term.

I'm wondering about February this year. Historically a bigger month for snow... colder pattern this season, and trusty el nino. hmmm.

[wxman57]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

Yeah, though the models do indicate precip across Texas next week, they also indicate southerly winds and air too warm for anything but rain.

[txagwxman]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

Guess we shall see.

No it will take a break. All models are leaning warmer Midwest next week, with cutoff low across Mexico/W. Texas. Cool rain here though, but the Arctic air is GONE next week.

[Portastorm]

Alright guys (wxman57 and txagwxman) ... no need to rub it in!

What a waste today of a perfectly, good Arctic front.

[Ntxw]

That's the thing Portastorm it's too good and too cold we generally only see good winter storms when it's barely marginal

[iorange55]

Winter taking a big break next week, just cool rain here in Texas late next week

Guess we shall see.

No it will take a break. All models are leaning warmer Midwest next week, with cutoff low across Mexico/W. Texas. Cool rain here though, but the Arctic air is GONE next week.

They're trending warmer than they were a day, or two ago if they continue to do so over the weeknd then the hopes quickly fade. I'm not confident in saying anything defiantly will or will not happen when it's 5-6-7 days out and just a day or two ago the models were a little different than they are now. Plus there doesn't exactly have to be Arctic air in place for there to be winter precip up here in the Dallas area.

[wxgirl69]

[quote="Portastorm"]Alright guys (wxman57 and txagwxman) ... no need to rub it in!

What a waste today of a perfectly, good Arctic front. [/quot

I totally agree.. It is a darn shame that we can not get any moisture with this Artic air.. May be another 14 years....

AAARRRGGGHHH!!!

[srainhoutx]

The "January Thaw" will probably last about a week or so. Then the AO and NAO look to tank again after mid January and will probably see a +PNA as well. Remember our best chances of snow usually come in February in TX. Enjoy the "warm up" because it may not be all that warm.

[gboudx]

That's the thing Portastorm it's too good and too cold we generally only see good winter storms when it's barely marginal

That's when it's fun. When we get to hear about ground temps being too warm for it to stick and all that jazz.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST THU JAN 07 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 10 2010 - 12Z THU JAN 14 2010

...FINAL UPDATE....

THE MEAN PATTERN SHOWS A SURGE OF PACIFIC WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO
MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE
WRN PORTION OF THE CONUS BY TUE DAY 5. THESE PACIFIC
WESTERLIES...ALONG WITH A FLATTENING TREND ALREADY OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...PORTEND A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THAT HAVE GOVERNED THE NATION E OF THE ROCKIES DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF 2010. A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED DAY 6...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATING
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. 00Z/07 ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS CLEARLY AGREED ON THE NRN STREAM OF WESTERLIES
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NRN STREAM DOMINANCE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN
CANADA TUE DAY 5 AND BEYOND.
HOWEVER IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO RECKON THAT THE SRN STREAM OF
WESTERLIES IS DEAD. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES by WED DAY 6 MAY BE
AFFECTING SRN TX/LA/CA...AND THESE FEATURES ARE PROBLEMATIC.
EARLIER...THE 00Z/07 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE
E COAST.


NEW 12Z MODELS SUPPORT OUR EARLIER FORECAST REASONING. THE NEW
12Z/07 GFS HAS BACKED OFF HAVING AS MUCH ARCTIC ENERGY PUSHING
INTO NEW ENG BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A TREND SUPPORTED BY THE
12Z/07 UKMET/CANADIAN. THE 12Z ECMWF HANGS ONT0 A BIT MORE ENERGY
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY/CANADIAN MARITIMES TUE/WED...MOSTLY
OUT OF THE CONUS. OTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS SHOW
GOOD CLUSTERING THRU 00Z/12 IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS...BUT
AGREEMENT GOES DOWNHILL RAPIDLY BEYOND THAT TIME. MODELS STRUGGLE
TO RESOLVE THE SHEARING APART OF THE UPPER TROF CROSSING THE SERN
STATES TUE....AND OTHER SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM THEREAFTER.

...HIGHLIGHTS...

THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE
ON THE QUIET SIDE. STORMINESS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO AFFECT THE ERN STATES.
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE WEST COAST MAY SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BY TUE AS PACIFIC WESTERLIES BATHE THE ENTIRE
COAST FROM WA TO CA. AN AREA TO WATCH FOR OVERRUNNING PCPN WILL BE
THE GULF COAST REGION AROUND WED FROM THE ILL DEFINED EFFECTS OF
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.

FLOOD

[Tejas89]

The "January Thaw" will probably last about a week or so. Then the AO and NAO look to tank again after mid January and will probably see a +PNA as well. Remember our best chances of snow usually come in February in TX. Enjoy the "warm up" because it may not be all that warm.

I've been trying to remember big weather events in DFW in January and it all keeps going back to December, February, and March storms. Particularly the sleet storms we used to get in the 80's and 90's. January is always so bone dry.

Agreed this winter looks to keep us in a relative icebox compared to the 00's regardless of any warm-ups.

[southerngale]

Snow is showing up on radar in West Central Texas.



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