Texas Winter 2014-2015

[hriverajr]

Orangeblood, if that GFS precip map verified, all the winter stress and frustration would disappear in an instant. Fingers crossed.

Other than some runs that are occasionally warmer, It has been fairly consistent. I have not been able to check anything in detail. Someone is being quite the scrooge. ...lol

[Tireman4]

Well, if the Lord of Summer says no way, I guess I will have to believe him. Sigh. You know he is just nails on forecasts. Oh wait, which one will make the forecast...? Snow Guy or Heat Miser? LOL....

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS is back to phasing the northern and subtropical jet to the west of us. With big HP dome diving south this is a recipe for winter weather in Texas. Feb is cold blast/snow ciimo for Texas. For DFW the snowiest day, snowiest month, and coldest temperature reading is all in Feb! As always where and how is question. What I take from the models is the runs (even euro) have trended away from sitting and cutting off the low in the Baja and closer to bringing it out. Better chance for a phase this way. Interesting days ahead.

[Portastorm]

Silly wxman57 ... paying attention to surface features and focusing on meteograms for an event 7-8 days out! A wise sage once told me to pay more attention to the 500mb prognostications until you're just 3-4 days away from a possible event. So, let's look at the Euro, the GFS, and the CMC for Super Bowl Sunday. The 500mb maps:

Here is the Euro, followed by the CMC, and the GFS:







As you can see, the pattern is very similar with a huge, cold low over the Hudson Bay and high pressure arcing southward from Alaska/North Pole down into the nation's midsection. The Euro seems to have a stronger high centered a little more inland than the others and, thus, projects the coldest air to our northeast. The GFS does not and takes it our way. The CMC is kind of in the middle. Going to be interesting to watch how it all unfolds, but this one has potential to be a big ticket item for us in Texas. Will it be one of dhweather's "Cat 5 in the Gulf" storms or a legit chance for us to see wintry weather? Stay tuned!

[Brent]

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS is back to phasing the northern and subtropical jet to the west of us. With big HP dome diving south this is a recipe for winter weather in Texas. Feb is cold blast/snow ciimo for Texas. For DFW the snowiest day, snowiest month, and coldest temperature reading is all in Feb! As always where and how is question. What I take from the models is the runs (even euro) have trended away from sitting and cutting off the low in the Baja and closer to bringing it out. Better chance for a phase this way. Interesting days ahead.

Big differences though in the 500mb pattern from the 12z GFS and the 0z GFS. The former is much warmer at the surface for Texas on Super Bowl Sunday due to the northern stream features. It elongates the low pressure more west to east and is a bit further northeast than the north-to-south looking low pressure on the 0z run ... also centered further west. I'm sure the models will struggle with both stream features until we get closer but differences in both will have large consequences in terms of how the surface features are progged.

[Ntxw]

Big differences though in the 500mb pattern from the 12z GFS and the 0z GFS. The former is much warmer at the surface for Texas on Super Bowl Sunday due to the northern stream features. It elongates the low pressure more west to east and is a bit further northeast than the north-to-south looking low pressure on the 0z run ... also centered further west. I'm sure the models will struggle with both stream features until we get closer but differences in both will have large consequences in terms of how the surface features are progged.

It's definitely better than 6Z where the northern stream completely outruns the STJ and just bleak. As long as the two interact I like the look. Details as you've mentioned can be worked out midweek.

[orangeblood]

Time to start monitoring the source regions for next weekends Arctic Front....most of this air will originate in Alaska and the Arctic Circle, Alaska temps are currently running 25-40 Deg F below normal at this time. Considering how borderline temps have been all season long, the strength of the Arctic HP is one of the most vital components....

[wxman57]

The problem with that 500mb pattern, Portastorm, is that giant upper low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping relatively warm Pacific air into western Canada. To get really cold across Texas that upper low needs to be replaced by a big ridge, which would direct the jet northward across western Alaska then to the Pole before turning southward.

Here's a DFW meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Nice cold rain Super Bowl weekend.

[orangeblood]

That's not necessarily true wxman57 if your source region is already 25-40 Deg F below normal at this time, that air coming down is not warm by any means.

12Z Canadian going towards the GFS idea of phasing both the northern and southern jets.....next up the Euro

[Brent]

The problem with that 500mb pattern, Portastorm, is that giant upper low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping relatively warm Pacific air into western Canada. To get really cold across Texas that upper low needs to be replaced by a big ridge, which would direct the jet northward across western Alaska then to the Pole before turning southward.

Here's a DFW meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Nice cold rain Super Bowl weekend.

Nope. I forbid cold rain. We've exceeded our quota this winter.

[Ntxw]

And if you can get HP to dive due south, with the trof at the base in the SW some of that eastern cold (source region being Canadian Archipelago where it is currently 40-50F below zero) can be pulled back. This occurred recently last March where the 500mb flow was meager and there was an Aleutian low doing as the heat miser is portraying and ultimately called for the end of winter in which he lost the infamous bet setting off the hijinks. It can be done, the key is to phase the two branches and the lower heights will allow cold to rush back.

[orangeblood]

And if you can get HP to dive due south, with the trof at the base in the SW some of that eastern cold (source region being Canadian Archipelago where it is currently 40-50F below zero) can be pulled back. This occurred recently last March where the 500mb flow was meager and there was an Aleutian low doing as the heat miser is portraying and ultimately called for the end of winter in which he last the infamous bet setting off the hijinks. It can be done.

Check out the 12Z GFS Control run and the ensembles, going to this exact scenario....western ridge looks perfectly aligned along the West Coast for a major arctic outbreak into the southern plains

[aggiecutter]

The problem with that 500mb pattern, Portastorm, is that giant upper low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping relatively warm Pacific air into western Canada. To get really cold across Texas that upper low needs to be replaced by a big ridge, which would direct the jet northward across western Alaska then to the Pole before turning southward.

Here's a DFW meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Nice cold rain Super Bowl weekend.

The pattern for the winter has been east coast trough, with Texas getting glancing blows of cold air. Another big nor'easter is set for early next week and the following weekend for the northeast. Most of Texas will probably see nothing more than a cold rain. It looks to me the same pattern will continue.

[Brent]

[Stormnut]

20% humidity and rain?! Lol

[South Texas Storms]

Lol Storm Watch Dallas is run by a kid who just entered college and isn't even studying meteorology.

[Brent]

Does WFAA know he uses their graphics? Lol

[hriverajr]

The problem with that 500mb pattern, Portastorm, is that giant upper low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping relatively warm Pacific air into western Canada. To get really cold across Texas that upper low needs to be replaced by a big ridge, which would direct the jet northward across western Alaska then to the Pole before turning southward.

Here's a DFW meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Nice cold rain Super Bowl weekend.

The pattern for the winter has been east coast trough, with Texas getting glancing blows of cold air. Another big nor'easter is set for early next week and the following weekend for the northeast. Most of Texas will probably see nothing more than a cold rain. It looks to me the same pattern will continue.

Actually from January 1-22, the greatest negative temperature anomalies have been in Texas. If some of the models come to pass, this would be the first time in the heart of winter that severe cold affects the east coast.

[utweather]

Impressive snow clouds last week.
In the "C"Olden days that would have been a good storm, 6 inches plus area-wide with very little solar melt.