Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 23.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 41.

EXTENDED MODELS AREA COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WITH FRONT LATE MON...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MON
NT. THIS WILL GIVE US A QUICK SWIFT CHANCE FOR SOME CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND COLDER AIR REALLY GETS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE A PREP FOR THE ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR NEXT UPPER
LOBE TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE WED INTO EARLY THUR. COLUMN BECOME
VERY COLD AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN FUTURE RUNS AND
CONTINUITY BUT COULD BE A DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
C AL WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A COLD COLUMN OF AIR. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO MONITOR.

[MississippiWx]

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 23.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 41.

EXTENDED MODELS AREA COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WITH FRONT LATE MON...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MON
NT. THIS WILL GIVE US A QUICK SWIFT CHANCE FOR SOME CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND COLDER AIR REALLY GETS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE A PREP FOR THE ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR NEXT UPPER
LOBE TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE WED INTO EARLY THUR. COLUMN BECOME
VERY COLD AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IN FUTURE RUNS AND
CONTINUITY BUT COULD BE A DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
C AL WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A COLD COLUMN OF AIR. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO MONITOR.

Yeah, we have a 40% chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday next week here in Hattiesburg.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And I am sure we will have just plain old rain if anything. Lately weather forecasting around here has not been to good. I am pretty tired of chasing these deep south winter fantasies. I think I'm ready to fast toward a couple of months and follow some severe storms then jump into hurricane season

[BigB0882]

I have a feeling Baton Rouge area will once again be the line between snow and rain. Oh well, we do live right on the ocean and we did have an amazing event in Dec 2008! Those are probably once every 10 year snow events, so I guess we can't expect too much!

[BigB0882]

Freezing drizzle has begun at my house. At least I think, everything says we are at 32 but my car earlier said 36 I am assuming A) I can't trust my car thermometer and B) I was getting fast food so I was in the middle of a concrete jungle. This drizzle should last more than 2 minutes.

[Jag95]

I don't think I've ever seen a winter where Birmingham and Jackson had snow in the forecast this many times.

[BigB0882]

Getting a little ice forming on metal surfaces. Taking a little to freeze. Weather.com shows us getting to above freezing around 4am. If they are still off on temps like they have been then I suppose we could still be freezing until about 8 or so.

[Huckster]

Drizzle over here, starting to see some light glaze forming mainly on the fences and bushes and some on the vehicles. Nothing on the roads. No icicles yet.

[Brent]

I don't think I've ever seen a winter where Birmingham and Jackson had snow in the forecast this many times.

LOL, yeah really. I'm about 90 miles ESE of Birmingham and have gotten a grand total of a light dusting though. (On Christmas however, lol).

Wednesday looks like huge potential to me for somebody. If it is huge and it's north of me I'm going to see it.

[BigB0882]

The rain is coming down at a good pace. Good thing we are SUPPOSED to get above freezing rather soon or we could have a huge ice problem on our hands. I wonder if it may have slipped above freezing at my place because I noticed less ice on the metal of the trampoline. It is either above freezing or the heavier rain has melted the thin ice on top of the metal.

[Kennethb]

The rain is coming down at a good pace. Good thing we are SUPPOSED to get above freezing rather soon or we could have a huge ice problem on our hands. I wonder if it may have slipped above freezing at my place because I noticed less ice on the metal of the trampoline. It is either above freezing or the heavier rain has melted the thin ice on top of the metal.

Temperatures have risen above 33 in BR proper. Folks further north and west are still near freezing and dealing with some freezing rain. Temps should very slowly warm here in BR and the 32 degree line move slowly north and west.

As the event moves on, next week is looking very cold. There appears to be a chance of wintry precip down south. Exactly where is still in the details to be determined.

[Lane]

I don't think I've ever seen a winter where Birmingham and Jackson had snow in the forecast this many times.

LOL, yeah really. I'm about 90 miles ESE of Birmingham and have gotten a grand total of a light dusting though. (On Christmas however, lol).

Wednesday looks like huge potential to me for somebody. If it is huge and it's north of me I'm going to see it.

I too will be headed north Brent! This looks like it will be one of the last chances, I wont miss this next go round.

[stormy70]

On the way to my grandmother's house this morning it started to rain with sleet mixed in. I am across the street from Mobile Bay in Fairhope. Was not expecting that at all. Strange too because the radar was showing just rain.

[Ynotndalton]

You can come to my house man.. i'm up here in dalton, Ga.. on the tenn border in NW ga.. looks like we might be in the sweet spot for next week along with N alabama.

[Pearl River]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011


806 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

...LIGHT FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AROUND THE AREA...

DURING THE PAST HOUR SEVERAL REPORTING SITES INCLUDING LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT...HAMMOND AND SLIDELL HAVE REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. IN SLIDELL
VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AT
TIMES. A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION ALONG AREA ROADWAYS THIS
MORNING AS AREA STREETS ARE WET FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED.

[hcane27]

Strangest weather I have seen in quite some time ..... it is 35 degrees .... with lightning , thunder , sleet , and snow .... go figure

[hcane27]

oops ... Satsuma , AL .... 20 miles north of Mobile

[Jag95]

oops ... Satsuma , AL .... 20 miles north of Mobile

That's the same line of precip that caused the light snow in New Orleans. Check out the red on the radar. Weird.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Ynotndalton]

This is from the Tenn Valley forecaster at firsthand weather.. posted this morning about the storm next week.............................................................................

I regret to have to forecast such bone-chilling deadly temperatures and such a massive super-storm blizzard but here it goes. Sometime beginning around Wednesday next week a major winter storm will develop. I am already going to call this a SUPER STORM! I haven’t had time to look into this very much as I have just discovered it, but right now in Middle Tennessee I am forecasting 5-10 inches! I usually am conservative on my forecasts and wait until a few days away to up my accumulations but that forecast is reasonable for this area! Those amounts could be more! Blizzard conditions for the first time in HISTORY could develop across the area of Tennessee and surrounding areas. Temperatures will plummet and be BRUTAL across the area. I pray and hope that this is not the case but Temperatures could be highs around 5 or 0 degrees FAHRENHEIT on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday! Lows could be around NEGATIVE TEN and wind chills NEGATIVE 20s and 30s! Take this to heed everyone! That’s all. More on this tomorrow. Good night.

Josh Sigafoose

[carolina_73]

The 12Z GFS shows a weaker storm