Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman57]

That appears to be virga. Dew points are quite low in the area (-2 to 5 deg). Precipitation appears to be aloft and sublimating before reaching the ground.

Snow is showing up on radar in West Central Texas.

Direct link

[txagwxman]

That appears to be virga. Dew points are quite low in the area (-2 to 5 deg). Precipitation appears to be aloft and sublimating before reaching the ground.

Snow is showing up on radar in West Central Texas.

Direct link

That is all we will get tomorrow VIRGA...atmosphere too dry...what a bust on the sleet today...plus NWS said Tomball to freezing by 2PM, it is 39F here at 3:30PM and sunny.

[southerngale]

Ah, ok. Thanks. Darn virga. I thought some folks might be getting a nice surprise.

[Tejas89]

DFW got about 7 degrees warmer today than expected after frontal passage.. 31F now. Wonder if we'll reach those cratered lows they were calling for now. I smell 17-18 instead of lower teens, and warmer tomorrow than forecast. Oh well, a good hard freeze to be sure. Never discount a Texas sun to warm things up a little!!

[Ntxw]

Idk, the same reason it warmed up more than expected could be the reason it cools down just as fast (should the winds let up any) shows how dry the air really is and can go extreme either way. Less moderation of temps warm or cold.

Edit: Sun angle is low and now back down into the 20s

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CST THU JAN 7 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145-081200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WC.Y.0001.100108T0600Z-100108T1600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
947 PM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES...
REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT CST AND 10 AM CST FRIDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO
15 DEGREES ACROSS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA. THE VERY COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN FRIGID WIND CHILLS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS RANGING BETWEEN
ZERO TO FIVE BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
THE COLD MAY RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...WEAR A
HEAVY COAT...HAT AND GLOVES.

[srainhoutx]

The only location I can find reporting -sn at this hour is one of my favorite little nearby ski areas Ruidoso, NM. KHOU Meteorologist Gene Norman continues to suggest flurries tomorrrow afternoon and evening in Houston. Midland/Odessa conitues to suggest the Upper Trough Axis will produce at least an inch in their CWA.

[vbhoutex]

The only location I can find reporting -sn at this hour is one of my favorite little nearby ski areas Ruidoso, NM. KHOU Meteorologist Gene Norman continues to suggest flurries tomorrrow afternoon and evening in Houston. Midland/Odessa conitues to suggest the Upper Trough Axis will produce at least an inch in their CWA.

Could get interesting. Is there anything we can do to wet up the lower layers like turn on our sprinklers? Currently 28.5f and steadily falling. Looks like my call for 22f-24f here at my house is a good bet. We may see temps in the metro area a good deak closer to 20f than predicted.

[srainhoutx]

The only location I can find reporting -sn at this hour is one of my favorite little nearby ski areas Ruidoso, NM. KHOU Meteorologist Gene Norman continues to suggest flurries tomorrrow afternoon and evening in Houston. Midland/Odessa conitues to suggest the Upper Trough Axis will produce at least an inch in their CWA.

Could get interesting. Is there anything we can do to wet up the lower layers like turn on our sprinklers? :cheesy: Currently 28.5f and steadily falling. Looks like my call for 22f-24f here at my house is a good bet. We may see temps in the metro area a good deak closer to 20f than predicted.

Well, I could turn on the 400,000 BTU Heater on the Hot Tub and put some steam in the air, but my gas bill is going to be high enough as is.

[wxman22]

GFS looks interesting....

[srainhoutx]

GFS looks interesting....

Fit well with the reloading of the Arctic Regions and the return of a -AO, -NAO regime the ensembles are suggesting Don.

[iorange55]

This is fun watching the wind chill here. Last time I looked it was 20 here with a wind chill of 8

[vbhoutex]

That definitely bears watching!

[LaBreeze]

GFS looks interesting....

Fit well with the reloading of the Arctic Regions and the return of a -AO, -NAO regime the ensembles are suggesting Don.

Not sure what all this is about. Must not be very reliable, I guessing.

[TrekkerCC]

Fit well with the reloading of the Arctic Regions and the return of a -AO, -NAO regime the ensembles are suggesting Don

The only problem is that the really cold air is gone by late week. At the surface, GFS is showing the 0C line way far away from Texas. Even the Euro is showing the 540mb line way up at the Canadian-US Border when the disturbance starts moving eastward. The Euro does appear that it is showing a similar pattern to the GFS (slower than the GFS and the upper low closes off on the Euro in Mexico and moves SW to NE - while the GFS is more west to east and closes off the upper low in Texas ), but I think it is much harder for an event to happen unless we have another arctic front passage late next week. We would have to rely on evaporative cooling again (*plus if the column at the lower levels is almost saturated when the event begins - we wont have much,if any, evaporative cooling) , since the whole column will probably not be frozen. If this disturbance came through next Monday or Tuesday like the models were showing earlier this week, then I think we would have a distinct winter weather event. With a late week event, I think we are getting into a situation where everything has to go right for it to be a real winter storm.

(Edit: To clarify a point)

[southerngale]

Wow. Some areas have already received a few inches of snow!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2010

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITHIN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW UNTIL 8 AM CST...OR 7 AM MST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT 2 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS QUICKLY FALLEN ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY FROM
ARTESIA...TO HOBBS...TO SEMINOLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SNOWFALL
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE BANDS OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO PLAINS...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AT 2 AM CST.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ASOS AND LOCAL WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS
INDICATE THAT WET-BULB COOLING IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AS DEWPOINTS ARE QUICKLY RISING INTO THE TEENS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SAME ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. THE BAND
SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTH/EAST WITH TIME...SO WE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF A GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK... ORLA...MIDLAND/ODESSA...GARDEN CITY
LINE UNTIL 8 AM CST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES COULD QUICKLY OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIER BANDS. WE WILL EVALUATE TO SEE IF THIS ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE REGULAR FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS REGION...AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS
MORNING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...AND THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

NMZ027-028-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-058>062-258-081800-
/O.EXT.KMAF.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100108T1800Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-ANDREWS-
MARTIN-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-
MIDLAND-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...HOBBS...
LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...SEMINOLE...LAMESA...ANDREWS...
STANTON...PECOS...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...
MIDLAND...PINE SPRINGS
449 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2010 /349 AM MST FRI JAN 8 2010/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM
MST/ TODAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEA...
GAINES...DAWSON...ANDREWS...MARTIN...LOVING...WINKLER...ECTOR...
MIDLAND...AND REEVES COUNTY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST...OR
11 AM MST.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THIS MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

[wxman22]

Fit well with the reloading of the Arctic Regions and the return of a -AO, -NAO regime the ensembles are suggesting Don

The only problem is that the really cold air is gone by late week. At the surface, GFS is showing the 0C line way far away from Texas. Even the Euro is showing the 540mb line way up at the Canadian-US Border when the disturbance starts moving eastward. The Euro does appear that it is showing a similar pattern to the GFS (slower than the GFS and the upper low closes off on the Euro in Mexico and moves SW to NE - while the GFS is more west to east and closes off the upper low in Texas ), but I think it is much harder for an event to happen unless we have another arctic front passage late next week. We would have to rely on evaporative cooling again (*plus if the column at the lower levels is almost saturated when the event begins - we wont have much,if any, evaporative cooling) , since the whole column will probably not be frozen. If this disturbance came through next Monday or Tuesday like the models were showing earlier this week, then I think we would have a distinct winter weather event. With a late week event, I think we are getting into a situation where everything has to go right for it to be a real winter storm.

(Edit: To clarify a point)

But you're forgetting one thing,Cold Core Low

[srainhoutx]

Fit well with the reloading of the Arctic Regions and the return of a -AO, -NAO regime the ensembles are suggesting Don

The only problem is that the really cold air is gone by late week. At the surface, GFS is showing the 0C line way far away from Texas. Even the Euro is showing the 540mb line way up at the Canadian-US Border when the disturbance starts moving eastward. The Euro does appear that it is showing a similar pattern to the GFS (slower than the GFS and the upper low closes off on the Euro in Mexico and moves SW to NE - while the GFS is more west to east and closes off the upper low in Texas ), but I think it is much harder for an event to happen unless we have another arctic front passage late next week. We would have to rely on evaporative cooling again (*plus if the column at the lower levels is almost saturated when the event begins - we wont have much,if any, evaporative cooling) , since the whole column will probably not be frozen. If this disturbance came through next Monday or Tuesday like the models were showing earlier this week, then I think we would have a distinct winter weather event. With a late week event, I think we are getting into a situation where everything has to go right for it to be a real winter storm.

(Edit: To clarify a point)

But you're forgetting one thing,Cold Core Low

HPC Prelim Extended Disco...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
325 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2010

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 12 2010 - 12Z FRI JAN 15 2010

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SIMILAR WITH THE PRIMARY
FEATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
EAST COAST ON DAYS 3/4...PROVIDING MORE POLAR AIR BEFORE
MODERATING CONDITIONS REACH EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THE
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX SLIDES
SOUTHEAST AND SENDS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BY
DAY 5.

MODELS SUPPORT LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE REACHES INTO CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5. THIS ENERGY
WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS.
BY DAY 7...12Z/FRI...ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A STRONG
SFC SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO....AS AN AMPLIFIED
SRN STREAM TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. WITH
THE GFS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE MODELS...AND THE ECMWF
SLOWEST...FOLLOWED THE COMPROMISE POSITION ON THE CMC GLOBAL AND
GEFS MEAN.

HEDGE

[srainhoutx]

I'll repost the Morning e-mail from Jeff in the TX Winter Topic...

Massive arctic high pressure cells continues to build southward into TX.



Wind chills currently in the low to mid teens with air temperatures below freezing



Hard Freeze Warning remains in effect and being met at several locations.



Discussion:

Fairly uncomfortable outside this morning with strong N winds of 15-25mph continuing and temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s. Wind chills range from 11 at Sugar Land to 14 at Galveston, to 15 at Victoria. 600am temperatures ranged from 23 at Conroe to 29 at Galveston, 25 at Sugar Land, and 27 at Victoria. The entire area is at or below freezing at this time and the temperatures will continue to fall of the next 2-3 hours given strong cold air advection in place and very cold upstream air mass.



Up top the base of the long wave trough will combine with an active sub-tropical jet to thicken a layer of high and mid level clouds today. Radar returns over W and C TX this morning are not reaching the ground given an extremely dry sub-cloud layer with dewpoints from 0-15 over much of the area…do not see much if any chance of snow today with this disturbance as everything will evaporate before reaching the surface. Thickening clouds will help reduce the already low January sun angle and heating ability. Will see temperatures bottom out in the next 2-3 hours and then begin a very slow rise. Area in the mid 20’s or those along and N of US 59 will not likely get above freezing today. Most of this location fell below freezing at 900pm last night…and would not expect most of these areas to get above freezing until some point Saturday afternoon.



Coldest night will be tonight as arctic high builds into TX and skies clear allowing decent radiational cooling conditions. With extremely low dewpoints and afternoon highs at or below freezing over much of the area…the upper teens look likely along and N of US 59. Arctic high will begin to shift eastward Saturday, so Sunday morning will average a few degrees warmer than Saturday morning…but it will still be in the upper teens to low 20’s over much of the region…see forecasted lows below.



Arctic high moves eastward early next week and SE winds return. Gulf is getting a good work over at the moment with howling N winds all the way to the Yucatan, so it will take some time to bring moisture back to the area…first weather system Tues/Wed looks moisture starved with a much more potent event shaping up for late next week. At this time temperatures should moderate back into the 30-50’s for lows and highs so will go with everything liquid at this time for both events.



Mornings lows as of 600am:



College Station: 24

Huntsville: 22

Brenham: 25

Conroe: 23

IAH: 26

Hobby: 26

Sugar Land: 25

Wharton: 29

Galveston: 29 (First time below 30 since 1996)

Angleton: 27

Bay City: 29

Palacios: 28

Victoria: 27

Port Lavaca: 30

Giddings: 24

Austin: 24

Waco: 20

DFW: 17



Forecast Lows this weekend:



North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty

Saturday: 17-19

Sunday: 17-20

Monday: 26-29



North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land

Saturday: 19-21

Sunday: 19-23

Monday: 27-30



Galveston Bay region and coastline:

Saturday: 25-27

Sunday: 26-30

Monday: 32-34



Matagorda Bay region and coastline:

Saturday: 25-27

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 33-36



Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):

Saturday: 22-24

Sunday: 22-25

Monday: 29-32