Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gatorcane]

A lot of very cold artic air is pooling in northern Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are showing this air plunging south then southeast over the Eastern 2/3 of the United States starting next weekend into early next week. If these models are correct, we could see some extremely and dangerously cold air for much of the Midwest and New England areas. As of now Texas looks to miss the core of the arctic air though.

[TexasF6]

Not so fast on Texas missing the air, as the Siberian part of the North Asian continent is cooling and that air is poised to cross into Alaska and seep down the Lee of the Rockies and feed us colder weather! Just my two shillings worth! #SnowInAustin #ReturnOfThePortastormHappened

[Portastorm]

0z GFS has a much different look than its 12z run. Actually the 0z run looks more like the 12z Euro. Warmer for Texas with a minimal wintry weather threat. It's also much slower with the Baja low. Nothing like consistency.

[stormlover2013]

12z euro was pretty cold for texas at the 216 and 240 hr

[somethingfunny]

We have virtually no consistency here. That there will be a system next weekend is consistent. The rest... it's all over the place. Most model runs are not showing a snowstorm for the major cities, a few are. I'd side with the most over the few.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sounds like I have not missed much by not model watched this weekend as There send to be not run to run consistency yet in the models. Right now the only thing I know to do is to forecast it to be similar to the other events this winter with a cold, steady rain for most.

[wxman57]

Overnight model runs are a bit less cold for TX next weekend. The flow just isn't right for major cold down here. The Polar jet continues to flow into central British Columbia from the southwest, as the deep upper low remains over the Gulf of Alaska through 2 weeks. There is cold air in Canada, but not western Canada, where it needs to be to reach Texas. Looks cold for the Great Lakes & Northeast U.S. over the next few weeks, but nothing too noteworthy here.

6Z GFS has temps in the mid 70s to near 80 in Dallas-Ft Worth this coming week. Euro is forecasting temps down into the low 40s there next weekend.

Houston:


Dallas-Ft Worth:

[weatherdude1108]

EWX is hinting at a possible phasing of systems late week.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN ON
THURSDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOIST RETURN GULF FLOW...WILL
INCREASE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDCOVER. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PROGRESSION OF A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVEN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE NOT OF GREAT ASSISTANCE WITH CUTOFF LOWS...SHOWING QUITE A
SPREAD...THAT MAY NOT EVEN COVER THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION. [b]ANOTHER
ISSUE WILL BE PHASING OF THIS LOW WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST BET IS TO STICK WITH A STEADY
TREND TOWARD THE MOST LIKELY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO RESULT.
SPECIFICALLY...THAT WILL BE FOR CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS... LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF...AND A SWING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS PLANNING GOES...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE
BEST COMPLETED BY THURSDAY THIS NEXT WEEK TO AVOID RAIN/COLD.

&[/b]

[TexasF6]

Just took in Joe Bastardi's wxcast? Yeah. Its coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The blocking is supposed to go into March? Parts of TEXAS have snow on the ground in MARCH? Cooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! April may be COLD too?????

[hriverajr]

I would take everything Bastardi says with a grain of salt.

[Portastorm]

Just took in Joe Bastardi's wxcast? Yeah. Its coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The blocking is supposed to go into March? Parts of TEXAS have snow on the ground in MARCH? Cooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! April may be COLD too?????

Well, most of us here hope Joe is right.

Meanwhile the op and ensemble runs from both the GFS and Euro from 0z and 6z are not encouraging if we want to see a winter storm in Texas next weekend. Indeed the upper air pattern takes the coldest air to the eastern third of the nation. I'm not ready to give up the ghost though ... not quite yet. But if the progged pattern doesn't change by Tuesday, we all might want to calibrate our expectations.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Just took in Joe Bastardi's wxcast? Yeah. Its coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The blocking is supposed to go into March? Parts of TEXAS have snow on the ground in MARCH? Cooooooool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! April may be COLD too?????

Well, most of us here hope Joe is right.

Meanwhile the op and ensemble runs from both the GFS and Euro from 0z and 6z are not encouraging if we want to see a winter storm in Texas next weekend. Indeed the upper air pattern takes the coldest air to the eastern third of the nation. I'm not ready to give up the ghost though ... not quite yet. But if the progged pattern doesn't change by Tuesday, we all might want to calibrate our expectations.

Porta, are you thinking that the models switching back to bringing the coldest air into Texas is even a slight possibility? Seems to me,as has been said before, that the pattern this season has been to deliver the coldest air to the east. Why would it change now?

[Portastorm]

Well I'm not going to lie - I'm no longer very optimistic about next weekend. However, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, there is a misperception that the coldest air this winter has been to our northeast. In fact, the greatest departure from normal temps in January have been in Texas ... more so than the Great Lakes/Northeast. We're all cranky about it because the I-35 corridor hasn't experienced anything but mostly cold rain. But it's been plenty cold here.

I'm reminded of the GFS' propensity for latching on to something at long range, losing it at mid range, then getting it back at short range. As much as I bow frequently to King Euro, it had been fallible this winter. Combine that with the PNA predicted to go positive and the AO negative and ... wallah! ... why I'm thinking something "fun" for Texas next weekend isn't off the table yet.

If 10 was "most likely" and 1 was "no hope" ... I'd put our current chances at 3. My two pesos.

[hriverajr]

:uarrow:

Well I'm not going to lie - I'm no longer very optimistic about next weekend. However, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, there is a misperception that the coldest air this winter has been to our northeast. In fact, the greatest departure from normal temps in January have been in Texas ... more so than the Great Lakes/Northeast. We're all cranky about it because the I-35 corridor hasn't experienced anything but mostly cold rain. But it's been plenty cold here.

I'm reminded of the GFS' propensity for latching on to something at long range, losing it at mid range, then getting it back at short range. As much as I bow frequently to King Euro, it had been fallible this winter. Combine that with the PNA predicted to go positive and the AO negative and ... wallah! ... why I'm thinking something "fun" for Texas next weekend isn't off the table yet.

If 10 was "most likely" and 1 was "no hope" ... I'd put our current chances at 3. My two pesos.

Yes as I had mentioned before the greatest negative temperature anomalies have been over Texas. Yes the latest model runs are not looking very good if you want cold weather and snow in Texas, Just looked quickly at 12z GFS very disappointing. Wxman 57 will be crowing soon.

[Ralph's Weather]

I agree with the current discussion. This winter's cold has been down the Plains. That doesn't mean an individual trough won't be east though just like we had a west based trough earlier this winter.

[ndale]

It is interesting that Porta said those of us along the I35 corridor are "cranky". Yes, actually I am way past cranky because I am a warm weather person that likes temps in the 70s/80s and I hate cold rain. I tolerate the cold in winter for a possible snow which I really like but if it isn't going to snow I am ready for warm weather where the rain we get, which we really need, is at least a tolerable temp.

Sorry for the rant but after saying that I will still try to be patient a little longer for any possible snow.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

Well I'm not going to lie - I'm no longer very optimistic about next weekend. However, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, there is a misperception that the coldest air this winter has been to our northeast. In fact, the greatest departure from normal temps in January have been in Texas ... more so than the Great Lakes/Northeast. We're all cranky about it because the I-35 corridor hasn't experienced anything but mostly cold rain. But it's been plenty cold here.

I'm reminded of the GFS' propensity for latching on to something at long range, losing it at mid range, then getting it back at short range. As much as I bow frequently to King Euro, it had been fallible this winter. Combine that with the PNA predicted to go positive and the AO negative and ... wallah! ... why I'm thinking something "fun" for Texas next weekend isn't off the table yet.

If 10 was "most likely" and 1 was "no hope" ... I'd put our current chances at 3. My two pesos.

I'm still in the 50/50 camp on next weekend.....knowing the GFS bias towards being too progressive with strong/cold troughs, I'm still thinking the West Coast Ridge will hold together better than what the GFS is now showing - it flattens the ridge by slamming the energy into the Canadian NW Pacific Coast. It's the typical blimp the GFS has in during this time frame, we see it every winter. Just check out the Canadian - its still holding the ridge in/phasing the two jets, bringing a major winter storm into the southern plains next weekend - just as the GFS was showing yesterday.

The West Coast Ridge has HUGE implications for the North American pattern moving forward over the next few weeks....if it doesn't hold together than the Baja system will get stuck underneath the main jet and will lead to more of a ridge building into the Rockies - forcing most of the Cold air into the Northeast and not the Plains. Still too early to know either way but pay attention to the NW Pacific, it's the key to this Pattern coming up

EDIT: And just like that the 12Z Euro is going towards the Canadian - not quite there yet with the phasing solution but getting closer. Follow the GFS at your own risk - this is it's typical crazy phase

[wxman57]

I'd like to point out that the cold anomalies over Texas over the past month aren't because of very cold air plunging down the Plains. The cold anomalies are due mostly to cooler-than-normal highs due to the persistent clouds & rain. In order to get really cold in Texas there needs to be cold air in western Canada. The current and projected pattern doesn't indicate any extreme cold into western Canada. When Bastardi says "the cold is coming", I'm sure he's talking about his house and the northeast U.S., not Texas.

[hriverajr]

With Bastardi for the most part, weather especially in the Winter does not exist west of the Mississippi

[gatorcane]

Bastardi is most definitely commenting on the cold air coming for the Northeast United States as both the GFS and ECMWF are screaming MAJOR cold straight from the north pole starting the first week in February. Some of the temps these models are showing are mind boggling though the latest GFS run has backed off a smidge some on how cold it will get though still brutally cold.