txtwister78 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.
As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.
Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful
It's also par for the course quite frankly with regional offices 4-5 days out of an "event". I've never once seen a forecast or an AFD that wasn't "conservative" with temp forecast or discussion (winter precip & accumulation) when mentioning winter weather here in TX in the medium range. Forecasters (fair or not) I think are more worried about a bust in the other direction when in reality I've always argued for the latter (make sure the public is prepared for the worst), however when you're sitting in that seat and with the experience they have along with analogs/data they're combing through, tough to over think/critique it. Much easier to do that here. Deceit pretty strong though.
Well said!