Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3661 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:36 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.


Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful


It's also par for the course quite frankly with regional offices 4-5 days out of an "event". I've never once seen a forecast or an AFD that wasn't "conservative" with temp forecast or discussion (winter precip & accumulation) when mentioning winter weather here in TX in the medium range. Forecasters (fair or not) I think are more worried about a bust in the other direction when in reality I've always argued for the latter (make sure the public is prepared for the worst), however when you're sitting in that seat and with the experience they have along with analogs/data they're combing through, tough to over think/critique it. Much easier to do that here. Deceit pretty strong though.



Well said!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3662 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:47 pm

NWS offices also have to coordinate, work with other NOAA offices etc. Far different from TV folks etc.

I think probably tomorrow they will start ramping up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3663 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:53 pm

When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I'm having a very hard time believing this.

It's even crazier than the insane 12z runs! I don't know when this storm will hit the ceiling!

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3664 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png

Goodness that map is insane. Unreal. 11 inches of total accumulation is very hard to imagine. Looks like 17 close to Tarrant county. Holy moly.
Last edited by gpsnowman on Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3665 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I'm having a very hard time believing this.

It's even crazier than the insane 12z runs! I don't know when this storm will hit the ceiling!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png


Yeah I'm in disbelief at some of these runs today :double:

I'm legit wondering what the ceiling is
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3666 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:57 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png

Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3667 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png

Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.


GFS is getting close. Also with that much sleet falling per the model, you have to think you're going to see a much faster transition to snow across N TX should that verify.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3668 Postby gboudx » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:01 pm

With that much sleet, how deep is the warm nose and how warm?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3669 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:03 pm

I'm warning the school officials about this, it's looking to be a very dangerous & very serious situation for next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3670 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:07 pm

gboudx wrote:With that much sleet, how deep is the warm nose and how warm?


950-850mb is a few degrees above freezing, maybe 2 thousand feet's worth of non-freezing. Surface is thoroughly cold below 20F. Trend though is eroding the warm nose per run, likely better seeing cold air movement.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3671 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png

Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.


It's funny because I was just reading about 2011 the other day and then here we are maybe... :lol: :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3672 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:When the Sleet totals are also included with the snowfall. Jeez, I having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_27.png

Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.

Oh yes I remember that one. Nearly 10 year old me loved jumping in the huge snowdrifts around my house :lol:
That was also the biggest snowstorm I remember in this area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3673 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:12 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.

Oh yes I remember that one. Nearly 10 year old me loved jumping in the huge snowdrifts around my house :lol:
That was also the biggest snowstorm I remember in this area.


I used to go absolutely crazy with that one, the 2nd biggest winter storm I've dealt with (Biggest was the 2009 Christmas Blizzard)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3674 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:22 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Goodness that map is insane. Unreal.


Shows the wild overrunning/convective nature. As Bubba noted a few times, you get the cold a little deeper than modeled and it can be historic snowfall. 2011 first storm blitzed Oklahoma in similar fashion with a blizzard.

Oh yes I remember that one. Nearly 10 year old me loved jumping in the huge snowdrifts around my house :lol:
That was also the biggest snowstorm I remember in this area.


It's still the record in Tulsa I believe 14 inches

And from what I read they didn't expect that much til the last minute
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3675 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:27 pm

Wow the 18z GFS was a thing of beauty. 18z GEFS is looking great too. I'll be happy with 6-8" We just need something here it's too dang dry. Starting to wonder if folks along I-70 may miss out though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3676 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:50 pm

For those interested on WB, Joe Bastardi spends a good deal of time in the Saturday Summary video (free access for the public on that) addressing Texas (10:35 mark on) regarding the potential winter storm threat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3677 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:55 pm

This is exactly what I want to see for QPF GEFS, mean is around 0.75 and heavily clustered between 0.6" and 1.0" so it's not a few high end members upping the mean. There are a few low end members still so that potential is there, but it's less now. I only have to hope the GEFS is correct right now lol.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3678 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:58 pm

SouthernMet wrote:

I hate to be the one to say it - but this is looking much worse for DFW precipitation/impacts wise than Feb 21. Models are all in agreement on some insane QPF falling with temps in the teens/low 20’s. What made last year so bad was the 2 weeks of sub freezing temps. The way it’s looking now we will stay below freezing for atleast 5 days and potentially longer.


Great post! Last Feb was extreme cold and snow and although power outages, still drivable roads….you add in impassable roads with power outages, that is a true recipe for disaster. I agree with this, the potential is there to rival and playing it down is not the way to go with this IMHO. Need to give people plenty of lead time for something this extreme on the table

Majority of these QPF outputs are in sub-freezing air
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3679 Postby dhweather » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:07 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.


Cold trend is good. Negative tilt is nice. Don’t like how much faster it is however. GFS is about to start so not long to wait.


This cannot be emphasized enough - this will make a significant difference in precipitation amounts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3680 Postby dhweather » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:15 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.


Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful


Considering all the things that have to happen just right for us to get snow/sleet/freezing rain, particularly in the middle of a drought, I'd say it is about right.

Some possible scenarios:

1) Warm nose occurs and we get all rain

2) Stronger high, temps drop more than expected and dry the column up, we get no/light precip

3) Positive tilt instead of negative, no gulf moisture, much lighter precip

Put yourself in their shoes - you start the chicken little routine five days out and any of these happen - credibility takes a huge hit in the public eye. Before you start up that kind of weather talk with 7 million people, make sure your confidence is high. They don't do this for severe weather events five days out, they shouldn't for winter weather events either, IMHO. If you've ever worked in emergency management, you don't want the public prematurely riled up.
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