Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

00z NAM 12k much warmer, icy mix for north texas

Shoot not even a mix for the most part just straight rain. Guess it’s drinking again.

[Ntxw]

00z NAM 12k much warmer, icy mix for north texas

That ~800mb on the NAM is a couple of degrees warmer than the HRRR.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z NAM 12k much warmer, icy mix for north texas

Secondary shortwave doesn’t drop south fast enough to phase properly with the main system, similar to but not quite as bad as the 6z nam run. Nam is still very inconsistent with this.

[Iceresistance]

18z models were too warm??

 https://x.com/KATVJames/status/1876739234372980761

[Gotwood]

18z models were too warm??

 https://x.com/KATVJames/status/1876739234372980761

Think some cloud cover kept it from maxing in some areas but I still hit my anticipated high for my area.

[bubba hotep]

00z NAMs sucked for DFW

[snownado]

18z models were too warm??

 https://x.com/KATVJames/status/1876739234372980761

Think some cloud cover kept it from maxing in some areas but I still hit my anticipated high for my area.

That is correct.

The tweet is from a TV met in Arkansas (Little Rock), large parts of which were socked in low clouds much of the day

[SnowintheFalls]

This storm system has really shown the correlation of our current weather models and a magic 8 ball.

[Quixotic]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it said here that the precipitation would lower temps at the surface?

For the most part. There’s sometimes a substantial nose that warms precip to rain and if you’re just below freezing, when it hits the surface, it releases heat and can raise temps above freezing. It’s kinda rare but it was a problem for a couple of storms in 2014-2015.

[wxman22]

0z WRF NSSL. This forecast is a nightmare for precip types, i feel for the meteorologist in this situation. It seem like every model has a different interpretation of the precip types with this event.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

A true arctic airmass has a higher chance of suppressing a system and scouring moisture too though. Just goes to show what a delicate balance you need for a high end winter storm in Texas.

[Throckmorton]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it said here that the precipitation would lower temps at the surface?

For the most part. There’s sometimes a substantial nose that warms precip to rain and if you’re just below freezing, when it hits the surface, it releases heat and can raise temps above freezing. It’s kinda rare but it was a problem for a couple of storms in 2014-2015.

Heavy rain passing through a warm, moist layer drags some of the warmth to the surface. Lighter rain tends to evaporate in dry air, which lowers surface temperatures.

[Throckmorton]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

A true arctic airmass has a higher chance of suppressing a system and scouring moisture too though. Just goes to show what a delicate balance you need for a high end winter storm in Texas.

Except that did not happen in February 2021. Heavy snow fell in Austin when temperatures were below 10°. Some still believe in the ancient but false rule of thumb "too cold to snow."

[Texas Snow]

I feel we should throw out 2021 in comparison to pretty much anything else.

[Ralph's Weather]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

But then again the heaviest snows are almost always with marginal temps.

[Texas Snow]

Just looking at precip maps, icon backed more snow into DFW over last run

[bubba hotep]

00z ICON pretty good for the Northern Burbs and points NE

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

But then again the heaviest snows are almost always with marginal temps.

I should have said with a -pna and arctic airmass, we typically get stalled fronts due to a se ridge and typically they can be big winter storms. No temp concerns just type usually

[wxman22]

ICON