Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ynotndalton]

Ya i noticed that.. will need to watch for a trend or just a flip flop

[Brent]

BMX this morning

THE NEXT BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AND THE AIR MASS
TO FOLLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SYSTEM EVOLVING A BIT
DIFFERENTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER STREAMS INVOLVED. TIMING HAS
BEEN AN ISSUE THE PAST FEW RUNS BUT THE MODELS APPEAR A BIT CLOSER
TODAY WITH A WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING APPEARANCE. THE ECMWF
HAS A SOUTHERN INFLUENCE WHERE TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS. THEN POSSIBLY
A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW. THE GFS HAS THE COLDER AIR CLOSER AND
WOULD INDICATE RAIN WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE FEASIBLE WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME.
WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH
MODELS DO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER AND IT HAS NOT REALLY
MATERIALIZED. THIS CHANCE LOOKS BETTER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ORIENTATION. BUT AT THIS TIME...TOOK A MIX OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
HPC...ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED AS ENSEMBLE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE STILL HIGH. THIS COULD BE A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH
ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD OF IT. STAY TUNED.

and conservative FFC already has this!

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[carolina_73]

00Z


12Z...Hopefully it's a hiccup

[northjaxpro]

12 GFS run for 168 hr shows an absolute bomb (958 mb Low) off the New England coast. A 1038 mb Arctic High pressure builds in behind the storm ushering in very cold air for the entire Eastern CONUS.

[Brent]

I wouldn't worry about one run of the GFS(it's very erratic in this timeframe). Just watch for trends when you're 5 days out... I'm more worried about it being too warm than there being no storm, and the 12z still shows a decent warning criteria snow here, so it could be worse.

[Vortex]

It should be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro continues to trend towards the GFS...00z GFS completely bombs off the New England coast...Anything remotely close and we would certainly have a snowcane...

[northjaxpro]

It should be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro continues to trends towards the GFS...00z GFS completely bombs off the New England coast...Anything remotely closely and we would certainly have a snowcane...

Yeah, it is just something to monitor for a consensus with the models for the next few days. Nothing wouldn't surprise me with regards to this next system coming down the pike next week. This has been such an unbelievably record shattering cold and snowy winter for many areas.

The way it has been, the odds favoring another mega storm to happen again are fairly decent.

[BigB0882]

I just went to weather.com and it lists the past 24 hours as having .38 of liquid precip and 1.2 inches of snow! Man, sucks to have missed that inch of snow. Must have been the fasting melting snow ever.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-051800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1225 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...DUE TO COMPUTER MODEL UNCERTAINTIES RELATED
TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.

$$

61

Never seen that so far out!

[Ynotndalton]

brent whats the new emcwf look like for next week.. i don't know where to access it.

[stormy70]

From the NWS for Mobile, AL (Fairhope)
One product issued by NWS for: Fairhope AL
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST 32 DEGREES AREA WIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE...SO THE THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
AREA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE AREA DUE TO A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...THEN
SETTLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS TO ALABAMA
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AS THE
PRECIP ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AGAIN CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

[Metalicwx220]

Your image I see above is a box with an X.LOL XD

[Metalicwx220]

Im guessing and I know tht next week storm was a fluke. No more snow in the forecst.

[Ivanhater]

Ya'll might like the 12z GFS Ensemble

[BigB0882]

The 18z GFS I refuse to believe. It would be too much to have the snow/freezing line stop right at Baton Rouge again. I'm starting to wonder what I did to piss off Mother Nature so much? I can't get caught up in that, though, it is too far out and the 12z Ensembles certainly look a lot better.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[Lane]

I am pullng for the 12z that Ivan posted. That would make this cold winter all worth it!!

[GTStorm]

18z GFS

that one has a little bit of something over Savannah.

Clearly it is wrong. Expect moderation trend to begin immediately.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The 18z GFS I refuse to believe. It would be too much to have the snow/freezing line stop right at Baton Rouge again. I'm starting to wonder what I did to piss off Mother Nature so much? I can't get caught up in that, though, it is too far out and the 12z Ensembles certainly look a lot better.

Best thing to do is not even watch it. You should know it will be wrong and will not get anything other than rain. Hell we had a thunderstorm come through this morning around 4-4:30. A lot of wind and lightning, thunder shook the house and woke us up. That was nowhere in the forecast. Also got a lot more rain as well. My backyard is like a soaked sponge. Just step in it and water comes out the ground all around your foot. Cant even walk in it with tennis shoes on. I have pretty much given up on these horrible winter forecast and just looking forward to summer.

[Kennethb]

Today, February 4th is the anniversary of the 1st of 2 1988 snows here in Baton Rouge. When it does not snow much, you can remember specific snows. There were several interesting things about the 1988 snows. The previous measurable snow for Baton Rouge had occurred in 1973, another year when we had 2 snows. We had several instances of snows between those 1973 and 1988, but they were traces only. The second 1973 snow was a surprise just as the 2 1988 snows. The first 1988 snow was 3.2 inches, one of the biggest since the early 1900's. It began on the Thursday before (February 3) when we precipitation began around 5:00 that evening with some ice pellets that quickly turned to rain. It must have rained all night because it was very wet the next day. It rained that morning while I was at work. Around 11:30 we went to the Cracker Barrell near the Perkins Road Overpass when we saw these big slush flakes landing on the windshield. It snowed off and on all day, but did not accummulate yet. The ground was very wet and the snow not consistent. By 5 or so it became mostly snow. It later around 7-8 starting coming down as heavy wet flakes with thunder snow. The next day dawned cold, white with blue skies with a 20% chance of freezing rain on Sunday. Saturday night the temperature dropped to 22 under clear skies. Then came the optimum situation where high clouds began moving in at dawn. The crude radar on TV showed a mass of snow over SW LA and West Central LA moving east. This was a purely upper air system. While the system began to loose some steam as the day wore on, the clouds thickened and around 9:30 light snow began to fall. Light to moderate, fluffy dry snow fell for about 2-3 hours. The was the first and only time I can remember a system beginning and ending as snow. While no measurable snow was reported at the airport, I being on the south part of the parish we had about 1/2 and inch. This a dream couple of days of which it would be nice to have again. There was no Internet those days. Though we had TWC, it was still in its infancy. So there was no model fantasies or frustrations. Just two surprises that almost seem like a dream, as were those early December snows in 2008 and 2009.