Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3681 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:27 pm

dhweather wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.


Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful


Considering all the things that have to happen just right for us to get snow/sleet/freezing rain, particularly in the middle of a drought, I'd say it is about right.

Some possible scenarios:

1) Warm nose occurs and we get all rain

2) Stronger high, temps drop more than expected and dry the column up, we get no/light precip

3) Positive tilt instead of negative, no gulf moisture, much lighter precip

Put yourself in their shoes - you start the chicken little routine five days out and any of these happen - credibility takes a huge hit in the public eye. Before you start up that kind of weather talk with 7 million people, make sure your confidence is high. They don't do this for severe weather events five days out, they shouldn't for winter weather events either, IMHO. If you've ever worked in emergency management, you don't want the public prematurely riled up.


These scenarios are indeed possible, not very likely though, but still possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3682 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:28 pm

FW did update some time after the 18z suite. How many images of empty shelves will we get the next few days?

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1487583017090625540


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3683 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:30 pm

NWS-Norman does have a higher chance, but maybe their blend of models is keeping the uncertainly higher since it's 4-5 days out?

 https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1487543957433331717


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3684 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:34 pm

I agree with the idea that there are uncertainties but re. Scenario 1, that’s off the table. No way it’s all rain. It’s gonna change. In fact I bet by the time we are here Wednesday, a lot of the current icing forecasts change to snow for N Texas. EPS 18z now up to 1.3” for metroplex.

B) this isn’t a wish cast. I don’t live in Dallas :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3685 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:38 pm

Haris wrote:I agree with the idea that there are uncertainties but re. Scenario 1, that’s off the table. No way it’s all rain. It’s gonna change. In fact I bet by the time we are here Wednesday, a lot of the current icing forecasts change to snow for N Texas. EPS 18z now up to 1.3” for metroplex.

B) this isn’t a wish cast. I don’t live in Dallas :lol:


I think so too, based on what I'm seeing from ens and strong CAA. I bet the icing will shift south with time. Where the front slows and 850s don't catch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3686 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:40 pm

I think by Monday we should have a better handle on this with HI-RES models coming into play. My guess is that's when you're going to see things really ramp up communication/state messaging wise should trends continue (perhaps as early as tomorrow), but having said all that, I think people can and definitely should prepare without having to be told to do so by any agency (social media is definitely active on this topic already). Obviously not everyone is tied into the weather as we are (I get that), but I think the messaging will increase as confidence continues to increase.

I get the overall concern (particularly in the N & W TX area where models are quite bullish right now) but I don't think that's lost on anyone who understands the potential hazards/impact of winter weather (especially in the south). Overall, I do agree there is no such thing as over preparedness and so hopefully folks like us are getting the word out to friends/family and that's all you can do. Just my final .02. on this topic.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3687 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:43 pm

dhweather wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.


Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful


Considering all the things that have to happen just right for us to get snow/sleet/freezing rain, particularly in the middle of a drought, I'd say it is about right.

Some possible scenarios:

1) Warm nose occurs and we get all rain

2) Stronger high, temps drop more than expected and dry the column up, we get no/light precip

3) Positive tilt instead of negative, no gulf moisture, much lighter precip

Put yourself in their shoes - you start the chicken little routine five days out and any of these happen - credibility takes a huge hit in the public eye. Before you start up that kind of weather talk with 7 million people, make sure your confidence is high. They don't do this for severe weather events five days out, they shouldn't for winter weather events either, IMHO. If you've ever worked in emergency management, you don't want the public prematurely riled up.


Out of the 75-100 plus ensemble interations we have, less than 5% show what you’re referring to….like Ntxw said, it’s like they’re pulling the “low” probability statement out of thin air because non of the most valuable tools at their disposal are claiming that. I’m not saying it can’t happen (your scenarios) but if you side with caution literally every single time (even though 95% of your output says significant impact event), what’s the point in forecasting anything beyond 3 days ? We had the same discussions last Feb re: conservative public forecasts and then ERCOT happened partly due to lack of planning ahead (even though some of our most trustworthy models we’re screaming extreme). I partly understand a conservative snow forecast but this is a crippling ice scenario which is vastly different
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3688 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:47 pm

Brent wrote:One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon :double:

https://i.ibb.co/8K71xsf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-20.png


Brent, that graphic shows the precip occurring from 12Z-18Z - Thursday morning, not afternoon. To see the afternoon precip, check the 00Z graphic, which is vastly different, indicating that the precip ends prior to noon Thursday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3689 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:52 pm

Jennifer Dunn Is now on shift tonight at the FWD office. She was promoted to warning coordination meteorologist a year or two ago but I always liked her forecasts. Her husband also works in that office. Ted Ryan ( Science and Operations Officer) is also on shift with her. I don’t know if this was regularly scheduled, but they have Management on shift tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3690 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:54 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Jennifer Dunn Is now on shift tonight at the FWD office. She was promoted to warning coordination meteorologist a year or two ago but I always liked her forecasts. Her husband also works in that office. Ted Ryan ( Science and Operations Officer) is also on shift with her. I don’t know if this was regularly scheduled, but they have Management on shift tonight.


Good to know, thanks Texas Snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3691 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:57 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Jennifer Dunn Is now on shift tonight at the FWD office. She was promoted to warning coordination meteorologist a year or two ago but I always liked her forecasts. Her husband also works in that office. Ted Ryan ( Science and Operations Officer) is also on shift with her. I don’t know if this was regularly scheduled, but they have Management on shift tonight.


She was actually promoted while I volunteered there during the Summer of 2018. WCM's don't typically work nightshifts, but it happens (someone may be sick). She's a brilliant lady, got to work with her a bit when she was still a forecaster and got to interview her last year for a grad school project. Same goes for Ted, one of the smartest guys I know. Everyone at the Fort Worth office was great in general, same goes for everyone here in Wichita.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3692 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:06 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:Jennifer Dunn Is now on shift tonight at the FWD office. She was promoted to warning coordination meteorologist a year or two ago but I always liked her forecasts. Her husband also works in that office. Ted Ryan ( Science and Operations Officer) is also on shift with her. I don’t know if this was regularly scheduled, but they have Management on shift tonight.


She was actually promoted while I volunteered there during the Summer of 2018.
oh my time flies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3693 Postby Golf7270 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:09 pm

TheProfessor wrote:This is exactly what I want to see for QPF GEFS, mean is around 0.75 and heavily clustered between 0.6" and 1.0" so it's not a few high end members upping the mean. There are a few low end members still so that potential is there, but it's less now. I only have to hope the GEFS is correct right now lol.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/gZ9MGLn/GEFS-QPF.png [/url]

Hi professor. Could you post or check the 18zgefs for kjbr which is jonesboro ar and see how much qpf for my area and how much would be frozen? Thanks in advance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3694 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:18 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Jennifer Dunn Is now on shift tonight at the FWD office. She was promoted to warning coordination meteorologist a year or two ago but I always liked her forecasts. Her husband also works in that office. Ted Ryan ( Science and Operations Officer) is also on shift with her. I don’t know if this was regularly scheduled, but they have Management on shift tonight.


Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3695 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:27 pm

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3696 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:28 pm

Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3697 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:29 pm

18z EPS (First noted on WX Infinity) has 1-1.5 inches of Mean Snowfall for DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3698 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:31 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.


But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3699 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:34 pm

orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.


But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?


Could it be the NWS Blend of Models that is only seeable from Pivotal Weather Plus?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3700 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:36 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.


But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?


Could it be the NWS Blend of Models that is only seeable from Pivotal Weather Plus?


Here the latest NBM output, like the rest, getting really aggressive with QPF

Image
Snowfall
Image
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