dhweather wrote:orangeblood wrote:Texas Snow wrote:Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.
As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.
Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful
Considering all the things that have to happen just right for us to get snow/sleet/freezing rain, particularly in the middle of a drought, I'd say it is about right.
Some possible scenarios:
1) Warm nose occurs and we get all rain
2) Stronger high, temps drop more than expected and dry the column up, we get no/light precip
3) Positive tilt instead of negative, no gulf moisture, much lighter precip
Put yourself in their shoes - you start the chicken little routine five days out and any of these happen - credibility takes a huge hit in the public eye. Before you start up that kind of weather talk with 7 million people, make sure your confidence is high. They don't do this for severe weather events five days out, they shouldn't for winter weather events either, IMHO. If you've ever worked in emergency management, you don't want the public prematurely riled up.
These scenarios are indeed possible, not very likely though, but still possible.