Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

A true arctic airmass has a higher chance of suppressing a system and scouring moisture too though. Just goes to show what a delicate balance you need for a high end winter storm in Texas.

Except that did not happen in February 2021. Heavy snow fell in Austin when temperatures were below 10°. Some still believe in the ancient but false rule of thumb "too cold to snow."

On the contrary, that's exactly what happened in DFW in Feb 2021.

A few inches fell and it stuck around forever, but it was far from a "high-end winter storm" snow total-wise.

[Iceresistance]

Did ICON go in the right direction?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXiPX.png

[rwfromkansas]

A true arctic airmass has a higher chance of suppressing a system and scouring moisture too though. Just goes to show what a delicate balance you need for a high end winter storm in Texas.

Except that did not happen in February 2021. Heavy snow fell in Austin when temperatures were below 10°. Some still believe in the ancient but false rule of thumb "too cold to snow."

On the contrary, that's exactly what happened in DFW in Feb 2021.

A few inches fell and it stuck around forever, but it was far from a "high-end winter storm" snow total-wise.

I remember a few runs with high-end amounts, and it faded. Like this. But, it was cold and enough to cover the ground decently, so I was fine with it aside from the power issues many faced.

[Edwards Limestone]

EWX quite bearish now down here regarding wintry stuff. No icing for 35 corridor through Friday, very low chances in the highest elevations in the NE Hill Country.

We will gladly take the cold rain instead, hopefully the QPF performs.

[Quixotic]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it said here that the precipitation would lower temps at the surface?

For the most part. There’s sometimes a substantial nose that warms precip to rain and if you’re just below freezing, when it hits the surface, it releases heat and can raise temps above freezing. It’s kinda rare but it was a problem for a couple of storms in 2014-2015.

Heavy rain passing through a warm, moist layer drags some of the warmth to the surface. Lighter rain tends to evaporate in dry air, which lowers surface temperatures.

Yep. Which was the case in the storms I mentioned. It was 28, started raining and temp rose to 32. Latent heat release is the term IIRC.

[cheezyWXguy]

For the most part. There’s sometimes a substantial nose that warms precip to rain and if you’re just below freezing, when it hits the surface, it releases heat and can raise temps above freezing. It’s kinda rare but it was a problem for a couple of storms in 2014-2015.

Heavy rain passing through a warm, moist layer drags some of the warmth to the surface. Lighter rain tends to evaporate in dry air, which lowers surface temperatures.

Yep. Which was the case in the storms I mentioned. It was 28, started raining and temp rose to 32. Latent heat release is the term IIRC.

Living in Texas my whole life it seems like events like that are a dime a dozen. I don’t think that’s what we’re dealing with now though. The potential warm nose is only a degree or so above the surface temps from what I’ve seen on recent models. The setups I can recall where this was a huge issue involved much warmer, moist air, around 5-10F above freezing, overrunning a very shallow sub freezing arctic airmass.

[Brent]

Wowsers there's a map of Arkansas on Facebook with 8-10 inches possible

[Ntxw]

GFS is definition of living on the edge. That line is rain or snow little inbetween. One side is good snow other is cold rain.

[katheria]

This storm system has really shown the correlation of our current weather models and a magic 8 ball.

Magic 8 ball says we will get lots of snow on Thursday without a doubt lol

[wxman22]

The GFS came in more potent with snowfall.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS says, "We so back!"

[gpsnowman]

00z GFS says, "We so back!"

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025010800/066/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Excellent trends today. Subtle at times but there nonetheless. Better than yesterday. Euro awaits.

[txtwister78]

I agree with Txtwister78. We have marginal cold air and there will be winners and losers. There is with every winter event, but a true arctic airmass would most likely get more people in the game. Waa can destroy winter hopes for sure lol

A true arctic airmass has a higher chance of suppressing a system and scouring moisture too though. Just goes to show what a delicate balance you need for a high end winter storm in Texas.

Not when you have systems like that coming out of the SW (Baja). That is typically a big-ticket event when you can get the southern branch involved as opposed to relying on just some impulse riding the arctic boundary where yes moisture can be more limited. These type of setups have brought big snowstorms in the past. The issue if you want more winter weather is when you have minimal cold and you have to rely strictly on one source for it, then it becomes more complicated as you're seeing today. So no this was a good setup in certain aspects but as I've stated before, to get big winter weather events you typically need more than one to align.

[Ntxw]

00z GFS says, "We so back!"

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025010800/066/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Excellent trends today. Subtle at times but there nonetheless. Better than yesterday. Euro awaits.

Brings back some Feb 2010 vibes where we lived right on the edge. That transition was just south of I-20 barely. We were reading the NWS and Wxman57 tell us the warm air above on that morning was going to cut off the totals but it never happened that day. About as edgy as it got!

[JDawg512]

EWX quite bearish now down here regarding wintry stuff. No icing for 35 corridor through Friday, very low chances in the highest elevations in the NE Hill Country.

We will gladly take the cold rain instead, hopefully the QPF performs.

I am sooo ready for it! That's my kind of winter storm.

[BradKingK]

WPC has been highlighting the I20 corridor of E TX today while NWS has been shying away from it. Kinda interesting difference of opinion here. If the colder models verify Tyler to Longview may have the most severe impacts of anywhere as this is where sleet/snow would be maximized.

My Jeep is ready. Community service projects will be all over the place.

[Ntxw]

Ok who broke the Canadian and RGEM? Not running.

[bubba hotep]

Ok who broke the Canadian and RGEM? Not running.

I heard they both showed 20"+ for DFW, so they pulled them offline!

[gpsnowman]

00z GFS says, "We so back!"

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025010800/066/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Excellent trends today. Subtle at times but there nonetheless. Better than yesterday. Euro awaits.

Brings back some Feb 2010 vibes where we lived right on the edge. That transition was just south of I-20 barely. We were reading the NWS and Wxman57 tell us the warm air above on that morning was going to cut off the totals but it never happened that day. About as edgy as it got!

Truly an amazing snowstorm. And this set up is certainly giving out Feb 2010 vibes. Someone is going to be chilled to the bone with cold rain and someone 2 miles north will have inches of heavy flakey snow. I hope I'm the latter.

[JDawg512]

Oh I forgot to mention that it hasn't gotten below freezing here at the Rain Cave so far, or if it did, it wasn't long enough to freeze plants that typically die back in freezes. So still waiting for a true freeze here.