Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensembles looking nice as well

[BigB0882]

Liking those GFS ensembles. Would like the freeze line to go a little further south but it does dip below Baton Rouge by 144 hours and since it is on top of Baton Rouge in 136, I imagine it would be all snow in the 144 hour image.

ETA: 00z looks much further North with snow, maybe even nothing for MS/AL in this run. Not sure why, warmer temps?

[Brent]

Latest BMX forecast for me:

Wednesday Night...Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow in the evening...then chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday...Colder. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the mid 30s.

WOW, check out Huntsville's forecast!!!!!!!!

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 17.

[Metalicwx220]

Then the 6z gfs snow depth has the snow to far north with warmer temperatures.

[MississippiWx]

Woke up to a surprise dusting of snow here this morning! It was snowing when I went to sleep, but I figured it wouldn't last long. Apparently it lasted just long enough. I'll take it!

[Metalicwx220]

LUcky ..................I woke up to a layer of fog and drizzle with mild 57 degrees. Been like this for two days and Im lovin it.

[vbhoutex]

LUcky ..................I woke up to a layer of fog and drizzle with mild 57 degrees. Been like this for two days and Im lovin it.

That sounds nice and warm to us here in Houston!!

[Brent]

BMX this morning:

THIS SYSTEM CLEARS BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARING
DOWN ON US FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. ONE WET AND THE OTHER
SNOWY. TODAYS 00Z RUNS AND GFS 06Z RUN ARE SUGGESTING A CLOSER TREND
WITH SNOW THE MAIN PLAYER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE PEGGING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING RIGHT ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THAT 32 DEGREE LINE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
I-59 AND THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SELMA TO
LAFAYETTE BY 6Z. BY 12Z...THE WET BULB ZERO LINE MAY BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY A FORECAST THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND POINTS NORTH.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BITTER ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER INTO
THE AREA...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. FEEL
AS THOUGH NUMERICAL MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIODS. IF WE DO GET ANY SNOW COVER
FROM THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. STAY TUNED AS THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE MANY
TURNS AND SWERVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

My forecast:

Wednesday Night...Snow or rain likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Thursday...Colder...cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Thursday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 14. Wind chill readings around 2 below.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Wind chill readings around zero.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-071200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
620 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THIS
SOLUTION...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE
COLDER AIR IS STILL QUESTIONABLE...AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. HARD FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.

$$

[TideJoe]

Woke up to a surprise dusting of snow here this morning! It was snowing when I went to sleep, but I figured it wouldn't last long. Apparently it lasted just long enough. I'll take it!

I noticed that too.... looked out the window and the roof and elevated surfaces had snow on them.

[timNms]

Woke up to a surprise dusting of snow here this morning! It was snowing when I went to sleep, but I figured it wouldn't last long. Apparently it lasted just long enough. I'll take it!

I got up around 5:30 this morning and was surprised to see the rooftops and vehicles covered with a dusting of snow. I'm hoping we get more than that with the mid-week system.
NWS in Jackson is saying areas north of I20 may see light snow Sunday night.

[tugreenie]

We had flurries last night too.They started about 10:00 pm and were still falling when I went to bed at 1:00 am. Nice to see falling but I am praying we get some real snow this week. I think this will be my last shot of this winter to see some. I live just south of I-10 south of Kiln.

[Brent]

From Memphis:

IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TAKE A STAB AT SPECIFIC TOTALS...BUT MOST OF OUR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT

From Huntsville:

WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR A SNOW PACK AND AN ARCTIC HIGH
MOVING OVHD ON FRI AND SAT MORNING...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS APPEAR
POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. IN FACT...LOWS BELOW ZERO APPEAR POSSIBLE IN
OUR NORMAL COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN
THE FCST JUST YET.

[Brent]

Huge possibly historic hit in N MS/AL/GA/Southern TN/Upstate SC/Western NC(like Jan 9-10th or bigger). Over an inch of QPF, all snow north of I-20.

Below that it's borderline

[Lane]

Starting to trend the wrong way for the deep south. I already requested thurs and friday off and will be up somewhere in the Tenn Valley to hopefully see some snow fall.

[Metalicwx220]

Been drizzling all day with wind and I like it. Another round of heavier rains.

[BigB0882]

I would say the 12z GFS is better than the 00z for the deep south but not by a lot. We need the L to track further South, I am guessing. My GFS text output says we get a whopping .02 of snow.

Ivanhater, if you get a chance can you post the ensembles?

[Metalicwx220]

I would say the 12z GFS is better than the 00z for the deep south but not by a lot. We need the L to track further South, I am guessing. My GFS text output says we get a whopping .02 of snow.

Ivanhater, if you get a chance can you post the ensembles?

Holy cow baton rouge would be shutdown from .02 snow. LOL

[Metalicwx220]

Huge possibly historic hit in N MS/AL/GA/Southern TN/Upstate SC/Western NC(like Jan 9-10th or bigger). Over an inch of QPF, all snow north of I-20.

Below that it's borderline

Bullcrap run trend further south and I will like a foot of snow.

[Brent]

[Metalicwx220]

Looks like the rain will continue through the night.