Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

12z European is a good bit farther to the south and east and more in line with what it showed a couple of days ago. That's a good trend! 12z GFS was slightly better and the 12z ensembles still look great!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would say the 12z GFS is better than the 00z for the deep south but not by a lot. We need the L to track further South, I am guessing. My GFS text output says we get a whopping .02 of snow.

Ivanhater, if you get a chance can you post the ensembles?

Holy cow baton rouge would be shutdown from .02 snow. LOL

You say that jokingly but more than likely these idiots around here would shut the city down. Probably would if the forecast was even showing a chance of snow.

[BigB0882]

If we can begin trending further South NOW that would be great. This is a weird one to watch because it seems like it is coming so soon. We were all watching this past week's event for what felt like a month!

[Agua]

We had flurries last night too.They started about 10:00 pm and were still falling when I went to bed at 1:00 am. Nice to see falling but I am praying we get some real snow this week. I think this will be my last shot of this winter to see some. I live just south of I-10 south of Kiln.

Ain't gonna happen.

[Metalicwx220]

If we can begin trending further South NOW that would be great. This is a weird one to watch because it seems like it is coming so soon. We were all watching this past week's event for what felt like a month!

YA yall were tracking it for almost 3 weeks. remember this. I saved it

[BigB0882]

LOL, even more proof that long range snow maps are a joke.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY IMPACT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO THE VALLEY BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Brent]

Hmmmmm, this is for MONDAY, not Wednesday

[BigB0882]

I noticed temps dip back into 40's for the high on Monday. Guess it is a short blast before the bigger front on Wed.

[Brent]

A few days ago the GFS had a huge clipper Monday with a decent snow here, then it trended warmer towards nothing and now I'm not sure. NWS still has 40's and rain but it looks like temps will crash Mon Afternoon/Evening here. Might be a close call.

[Metalicwx220]

We need a super trend for monday.... One day i picture coastal georgia florida and south carolina will see a snowstorms and the deep south would not be involved and I will gloat. haha We were close in january when coastal carolinas saw the surprise blizzard.

[Brent]

Huntsville this afternoon:

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AFTER A PERIOD OF BENIGN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND COLD BUT DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A VERY
INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE BUT RELATIVELY WEAK
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX...IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. WITH ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION/LIFT AND GRADUAL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL LIKELY SPELL TROUBLE IN THE FORM OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
AT THIS JUNCTURE TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN ANY
OF THE PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AGREEMENT ON
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA DO RAISE CONFIDENCE THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE AND THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IS A GOOD BET.

[Kennethb]

If there was ever going to be a surprise for the deep south, this is the week.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, 12z GFS and Euro Ensembles look great

[Metalicwx220]

Yeah after this week.... the freezing line wants to vacate to the place with the bacon.

[Metalicwx220]

I Hope the 12z ensembles you posted above come to par. We unfortunately would be on what i assume is the freezing line.

[icicle]

From Memphis NWS...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. HAVE CHOSEN THE LATEST EURO SOLUTION ON
THE MIDWEEK STORM AS IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
ALL SNOW...WITH THE AREA REMAINING NORTH OF BOTH THE 2840
1000-700MB THICKNESS LINE AND THE 0 DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM. EURO
ALSO SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS
REGION MEANING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER THE AREA. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THE THREAT FOR
WARNING CRITERIA OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT HWO. ARCTIC AIR WITH
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE COLDEST THIS
WINTER SEASON BY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME BREAKING
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE AREA CAN RADIATE OUT.

[BigB0882]

That has to trend a little colder. Baton Rouge is exactly where it was this past week with freezing line being directly over us. Just a little colder will make me feel better.

[Ivanhater]

18z DGEX looking mighty fine as well

[Metalicwx220]

Just a little further south. LMAO XD! Someone should change the thread name to 'mid to late week wintry blast or somethin.'