Texas Winter 2012-2013

[txprog]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

If this is true, it would be DFW's earliest last freeze ever on record. Quite a feat that would be!

Yes, I have thought about this too. Record is, what, Feb 5 during the just downright awful winter of 1999/2000?

As they say, we shall see. Our friend, the very amiable Mr. Cosgrove, says, as we know, that winter is done, so maybe a record is possible. But he, I don't think, has had a good season. The cold was always going to come, but it never came the way he seemed to predict. Still lots of time for night at 32 or below.

Oh, this is my first, and maybe last post, this season. But I am a daily reader and enjoy the lively discussiom immensely!

[GaryHughes]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

The year or the season? We'll probably get a freeze by late November or sometime in December.

Touche!

[vbhoutex]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

If this is true, it would be DFW's earliest last freeze ever on record. Quite a feat that would be!

Yes, I have thought about this too. Record is, what, Feb 5 during the just downright awful winter of 1999/2000?

As they say, we shall see. Our friend, the very amiable Mr. Cosgrove, says, as we know, that winter is done, so maybe a record is possible. But he, I don't think, has had a good season. The cold was always going to come, but it never came the way he seemed to predict. Still lots of time for night at 32 or below.

Oh, this is my first, and maybe last post, this season. But I am a daily reader and enjoy the lively discussiom immensely!

Don't be such a stranger!! The more the merrier!!!

[dhweather]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

The year or the season? We'll probably get a freeze by late November or sometime in December.

I should have said season to be safe, but I honestly fear a strengthening la nina this summer and fall, which might lead us to a repeat of last winter, the infamous non-winter. Downright depressing.

[Ntxw]

Here's a little historical look on ENSO. Based on all the cases I have found there has never been a Nina/Nina/Neutral then another Nina. All of the neutrals were either another neutral or a Nino. This year's indices actually are not that favorable for good La Nina development except it is the cold PDO (not as cold as last year's PDO). But then again every double dip Nina was always followed by a Nino or third Nina which we did not get last fall so anything can happen!

And I know it's been thrown around but we are not currently in La Nina

[Texas Snowman]

Bastardi: "@BigJoeBastardi: GFS ensembles not playing around saying Feb worst month of the winter for much of nation.Clipper madness, then: http://t.co/CBGxQWiq.

[cycloneye]

The nail in the coffin to winter? Phil says yes as he didn't see shadow that means an early spring.

http://www.weather.com/family-kids/pets ... s-20130202

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa.— Cheers erupted in Punxsutawney, Pa., Saturday morning, as one of the most famous groundhogs made a prediction for an early spring.

Furry little Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning. Legend says if the groundhog doesn't see a shadow, winter will end early, and spring is just around the corner.

While Phil isn't the only groundhog prognosticator, the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray brought the Pennsylvania rodent even more notoriety.

[wxman57]

I bribed the groundhog with a bushel of apples. Of course he didn't see his shadow.

[Portastorm]

I bribed the groundhog with a bushel of apples. Of course he didn't see his shadow.

I'm not paying any attention to that chubby rodent, although I suspect he is probably right. But that's ok, I believe we still have a little excitement left. Enjoy your week ahead wxman57 ... THE CHANGE is coming in about a week. I predict unpleasant bike riding weather for you in the future.

Wish I had time to elaborate but Mrs. Portastorm has a list of things for the PWC to accomplish today. More tomorrow. Carry on folks and enjoy Saturday!

[Snowman67]

The nail in the coffin to winter? Phil says yes as he didn't see shadow that means an early spring.

http://www.weather.com/family-kids/pets ... s-20130202

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa.— Cheers erupted in Punxsutawney, Pa., Saturday morning, as one of the most famous groundhogs made a prediction for an early spring.

Furry little Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning. Legend says if the groundhog doesn't see a shadow, winter will end early, and spring is just around the corner.

While Phil isn't the only groundhog prognosticator, the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray brought the Pennsylvania rodent even more notoriety.

http://i.imwx.com/common/articles/image ... 50x366.jpg

Anyone up for some bbq'd groundhog?

[NDG]

The nail in the coffin to winter? Phil says yes as he didn't see shadow that means an early spring.

http://www.weather.com/family-kids/pets ... s-20130202

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa.— Cheers erupted in Punxsutawney, Pa., Saturday morning, as one of the most famous groundhogs made a prediction for an early spring.

Furry little Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning. Legend says if the groundhog doesn't see a shadow, winter will end early, and spring is just around the corner.

While Phil isn't the only groundhog prognosticator, the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray brought the Pennsylvania rodent even more notoriety.

http://i.imwx.com/common/articles/image ... 50x366.jpg

I say that is a good forecast by the Groundhog as the pattern seems to change for the eastern US later this month and for Meteorological spring to come right in time.

[Ntxw]

SOI is tanking at -47. Here comes the big storms as there is a very high correlation between a crashing SOI (mid December) of -30 or lower and high impact systems. Keep an eye around Valentines day +-

[gboudx]

Anyone up for some bbq'd groundhog?

It might taste better in a fricassee. I'll start the roux.

[vbhoutex]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

The year or the season? We'll probably get a freeze by late November or sometime in December.

I should have said season to be safe, but I honestly fear a strengthening la nina this summer and fall, which might lead us to a repeat of last winter, the infamous non-winter. Downright depressing.

If that happens SS may find us all at her front door next Winter!

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS sure did drop the cold from Canada in the long range. Looks like things trend colder after the 12th. We'll see!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

If that happens SS may find us all at her front door next Winter!

and how many of *us* would that be?????

[orangeblood]

GFS ensembles agree with the operational...very cold and wet pattern setting up for the country starting around Valentines Day

[Ntxw]

Euro certainly looks like split flow mischief late in it's run

[horselattitudesfarm]

Colder than what? I don't see anything to indicate temps as warm as we saw over the past week or so. While the GFS hinted (sometimes strongly) at a significant discharge of Canadian air southward around mid month, later runs have backed off on that. The general upper-air pattern does look to be transitioning to one that might lead to a more active southern storm track beyond 10 days, but how much cold air will be around at that time?

I'd be happy just to see the active storm track. My farm down in Gonzales is due for a more normal wetter pattern to get the winter ryegrass going. How I'd love to see a thick green carpet of clover and rye covering the place come late march .
P.S.: By the way, in case anyone cares, I'm not a meteorologist either, but love the weather and love learning about how air patterns create it. I am learning alot just lurking here. I am especially interested in how man and other forces might be affecting our climate long-term and how climate has changed in the past (paleoclimate): That is why I post things I find that might affect our weather here in Texas.

[vbhoutex]

If that happens SS may find us all at her front door next Winter!

and how many of *us* would that be?????

How many "cold mongerers" do you see in this thread??