Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3721 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:45 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will say this after a couple of close calls with winter storms on the guidance (ensembles are still tilting in the right direction) that the upcoming pattern that lasts thru Jan 30th is your more typical winter cold snaps. Big trough with each storm pulling a little more cold air with them. Not the big huge dumps we have set our minds to thinking is the standard (rare). Definitely positive and excited at winter storm prospects!


Not only the coming next 1-2 weeks but this Strat Warm event is making the prospects for remainder of winter look even better.

Jan 24-25th event looks good on the Ensembles particularly with the fresh snow pack to the north, system is likely colder than modeled
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674000000/1674626400-qrmcdQva2VI.png


I'll be hugging the 00z EPS b/c the OPs are trending more progressive with that system.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3722 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:47 am

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will say this after a couple of close calls with winter storms on the guidance (ensembles are still tilting in the right direction) that the upcoming pattern that lasts thru Jan 30th is your more typical winter cold snaps. Big trough with each storm pulling a little more cold air with them. Not the big huge dumps we have set our minds to thinking is the standard (rare). Definitely positive and excited at winter storm prospects!


Not only the coming next 1-2 weeks but this Strat Warm event is making the prospects for remainder of winter look even better.

Jan 24-25th event looks good on the Ensembles particularly with the fresh snow pack to the north, system is likely colder than modeled
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674000000/1674626400-qrmcdQva2VI.png


I'll be hugging the 00z EPS b/c the OPs are trending more progressive with that system.

12z CMC looks really good too, with a massive -NAO block and -EPO.

Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gem_z500a_namer_fh144-240.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3723 Postby dpep4 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:31 pm

Tornadoes in east Texas and southern AR.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3724 Postby dpep4 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:32 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:I honestly love the warm weather in January


As do 99% of Texans. It's been awesome.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3725 Postby Sambucol » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:50 pm

Pow Ponder Polar Vortex
https://youtu.be/1RPzSZdbZ3M
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3726 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:52 pm

Sambucol wrote:Pow Ponder Polar Vortex
[youtube]https://youtu.be/1RPzSZdbZ3M[/youtube]


Fixed the video for you ;)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3727 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Not only the coming next 1-2 weeks but this Strat Warm event is making the prospects for remainder of winter look even better.

Jan 24-25th event looks good on the Ensembles particularly with the fresh snow pack to the north, system is likely colder than modeled
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674000000/1674626400-qrmcdQva2VI.png


I'll be hugging the 00z EPS b/c the OPs are trending more progressive with that system.

12z CMC looks really good too, with a massive -NAO block and -EPO.

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gem_z500a_namer_fh144-240.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/gem_z500a_namer_fh144-240.gif


I like that there is some rebuilding of the cold out west rather than just rushing east. That's my main worry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3728 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:54 pm

dpep4 wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:I honestly love the warm weather in January


As do 99% of Texans. It's been awesome.


Walking the dog in the morning has been great.

I just wish we have a little more seasonable weather of say 50-60s. I don't mind a little warm-up after that cold Christmas period. But, it's time to get some winter again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3729 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:26 pm

99% of Texans? Lol, no.

100% of my running crew and close friends prefer Winter in Winter over Late Spring in Winter.
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#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3730 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:36 pm

Well, that would leave a mark.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3731 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:49 pm



Indeed! :yow:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3732 Postby harp » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:51 pm

That’s why I’m pulling for you folks in SE Texas. Many times what you get, we in S Louisiana get the next day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3733 Postby Gotwood » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:06 pm


Please for the love of all that’s holy let this come to pass.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3734 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:11 pm


Holy crap that is a week out. The Euro would quickly regain "King" status if that verified.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3735 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:14 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1615780555165171712


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3736 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:21 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will say this after a couple of close calls with winter storms on the guidance (ensembles are still tilting in the right direction) that the upcoming pattern that lasts thru Jan 30th is your more typical winter cold snaps. Big trough with each storm pulling a little more cold air with them. Not the big huge dumps we have set our minds to thinking is the standard (rare). Definitely positive and excited at winter storm prospects!


Not only the coming next 1-2 weeks but this Strat Warm event is making the prospects for remainder of winter look even better.

Jan 24-25th event looks good on the Ensembles particularly with the fresh snow pack to the north, system is likely colder than modeled
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674000000/1674626400-qrmcdQva2VI.png


I'll be hugging the 00z EPS b/c the OPs are trending more progressive with that system.


12z Euro stops trending progressive and actually pulls the system back to the Big Bend from the 00z location along the TX/LA border.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3737 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:30 pm

Also, pretty good agreement b/w the 12z CMC and the Euro

Image

Image

Then the 12z GFS... Hopefully, it trends back at 18z

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3738 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:33 pm

It's pretty marginal but a well modeled system for days now.

1. How strong will the system be coming out?
2. How cold is the surface?
3. What orientation?

Need the stars to align. Would like to see a better HP show up to the north.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3739 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's pretty marginal but a well modeled system for days now.

1. How strong will the system be coming out?
2. How cold is the surface?
3. What orientation?

Need the stars to align. Would like to see a better HP show up to the north.


All important questions and the difference really between what the 12z just put out vs what could end up being just a good rain event. Not that we couldn't use both. ENS not bad so definitely something to watch over the next few days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3740 Postby ATXAG95 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:42 pm

Ugh. A bunch of us are supposed to leave Austin for Dallas next Wednesday. I would hate to get stuck on the road.
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