Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #3721 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:52 pm

Wow Andy! That picture number 4 is one of coolest looking cloud pix I have seen. That is a tremendous example of virga. It looks to me like the precip was remaining in the form of snow to very low levels, and then simply evaporating. With very low dew points like we have seen the past couple of days the snow can stay in a frozen form at temps far above freezing, but it rapidly gets eaten up by the dry air.

andycottle · #3722 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 12:31 am

Thank you snow wizzard! And actually, that pic number4 you mentioned aboput, was taken from about ceneter of the main Woodinville city area.
-- Andy

snow_wizzard · #3723 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 12:53 am

Oh Boy! I can hardly wait for the fun to begin! The new GFS is quite a bit wetter for this weekend, and then the real fun begins.

It continues to appear as if a very vigorous cold front will come in somewhere around Wednesday / Thursday of next week. It also continues to look like a mass of very cold maritime polar air will sweep in behind that front. Initially I would say 1000 snow levels, and a variety of exciting weather will be in the offing for the latter part of next week. After that two more cold fronts slam through here with little spacing between them. Can you say SNOW for the mountains?

Guest · #3724 Postby **Guest** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 12:55 am

Yeah the huskies lost and played probably the worst game of the season. Didn't have much help from the refs though which were terrible...

Yeah Anthony it is about time you jump off the NWS ship and call for help... TT to the rescue... Amazing how fast you can jump ship. LOL Just messing around.

This weekend is going to be VERY IMPRESSIVE and i can't wait. I can't wait to get up to the mountain here on Sunday it's going to be wild. Beyond the weekend looks WET AND WILD as well as everyone already knows DUHHH.... I am pretty excited.

Guest · #3725 Postby **Guest** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 12:56 am

At least the Sonics won a tight one and are creeping closer to second place in the western conference standings :lol:

andycottle · #3726 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 1:02 am

Good evening all. Viewing tonights latest run of the GFS...tomorrow will be yet another nice day with some sun and clouds at times. Ahhh, but the main weather event will be this weekend when we`ll see moderate wind and heavy rains. We could see as much 2.00" to 2.50" worth of rain over the 24 to 36hr period during the weekend. MM5 model showing the moderately breezy winds starting around the late morning time frame, and continuing through the day, but decreasing by evening time. Some scattered showers follow behind the strong system for Monday into tuesday. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #3727 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:58 am

Many places even in the lowlands could see 3+ inches of rain this weekend.

The new 18Z run of the ETA (NAM) showing precipitation for the upcoming weekend...

WOW.

R-Dub · #3728 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:43 pm

Another dry sunny but dusty day at work today! Still have grit in my eyes :lol:

Currently Partly cloudy with a temp of 54.1 degrees as of 2:40PM

Off to take a look at the models and see what NWS has to say.

R-Dub · #3729 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:52 pm

Once again TT is right on! He did say that NWS would change there tune on Friday!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST THU MAR 24 2005

DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN HEADED FOR THE OLYMPICS TOMORROW. FLOOD WATCH GOING UP FOR MASON COUNTY. WILL ALSO RAIN PRETTY HARD IN THE CASCADES. RAIN HERE TOO OF COURSE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS A SUBTROPICAL TAP AND SHOULD BE A GULLY WASHER. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE COLD AIR GETS IN ON SUNDAY. WILL GO 4-8 INCHES BOTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR WARNING SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. AFTER THE FIREWORKS THIS WEEKEND THERE IS MORE TO COME NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER IMPULSE COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND A STRONGER ONE TUE MORNING. BRIEF RIDGING TUE NIGHT THEN ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ABOUT THU. WET AND COOL. WINDY AT TIMES. BURKE

TT-SEA · #3730 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:58 pm

I was just going to post the same thing!!

This whole thing has been pretty obvious though. I have been watching this system and a massive global pattern change for 2 weeks now and I knew they would catch on at the last possible moment.

Check out the satellite... any questions??

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=sew&area=west&type=ir&size=16

andycottle · #3731 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:19 pm

Yeah Tim...one question. Since this system will have subtropical moisture with coupious amounts of rain and mild temps....think the local Hawains might want come up too the PNW for a day or two? :wink:

-- Andy

andycottle · #3732 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:44 pm

Good afternoon all!

Looking at the latest GFS models this afternoon....this weekend is still on tap for a real soaker as we could see 2.50 to 3.00"+ per the 24 to 36hr time frame. Also, should be moderately windy as the main system comes inland for early tomorrow. And MM5 850MB winds for tomorrow are in a SSW direction at 50 - 60kts with gusts to 70kts with temps of +2 to +4C. Snow level should also drop to around 2000 to 3000 ft as upper level temps and heights take a moderate dive downward for mid-late Sunday.
More showers and breezy winds at times, are in store for Monday - Friday of next week. -- Andy

AnthonyC · #3733 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:08 pm

Say goodbye to the sun for awhile...

Looks like a real soaker this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if most local rivers flooded by Monday. Not too windy with not distinct surface low, but when there's a pineapple express, local high wind is always possible. I guess a change is good.

As for the mountains, next week is their week. FEET of snow should fall the entire week as snow levels remain relatively low...2k. Actually, snow levels could go lower Wednesday night/Thursday morning as an upper level trough settles over the PNW.

The change is finally here...I must say I'm sad to see the sunshine leave. But summer is just around the corner!!

Anthony

Guest · #3734 Postby **Guest** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 8:09 pm

Hi guys!

andycottle · #3735 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 8:43 pm

A partly cloudy day here for the most part, but by late this afternoon skies became kinda overcast. Right now, we have cloudy skies with a temp of 51, humidity 51%, DP 34 and baro 29.88 and steady. My high today was 57 with a low of 38. -- Andy

AnthonyC · #3736 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:27 pm

You know what I want dude?! A nice windstorm...wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. We haven't had a good windstorm in years. Doesn't look like this weekend will offer anything to that degree...though the north sound and coast could have gale force gusts.

Anthony

W13 · #3737 Postby **W13** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:37 pm

AnthonyC wrote:You know what I want dude?! A nice windstorm...wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. We haven't had a good windstorm in years. Doesn't look like this weekend will offer anything to that degree...though the north sound and coast could have gale force gusts.

Anthony

I agree, I have been hoping for a spectacular windstorm for ages now, and everything just haven't come together.

How does it look down south in the Wilammette Valley and North-Central Oregon Cascades? That is where I will be tommorow and some of Sunday. I'm hoping for something exciting besides rain. :wink:

Duke lost. :cry:

Guest · #3738 Postby **Guest** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:51 pm

Excuse me R-dub who said the NWS would change their forecast by friday? If i can recall i posted this....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning BLH forecast not very impressed with NWS this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BRENNAN FORECAST NOT IMPRESSED WITH NWS STORM FORECAST.

MODELS STILL INDICATE A RATHER FREAKIN STORMY WEEKEND BUT NWS CAN'T PULL THEIR HEAD OUT OF A DARK PLACE. NWS IS WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE AND SKEPTICAL 95% OF THE TIME AND CHANGE THEIR MINDS LAST MINUTE BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY KNOW MORE THAN EVERYONE ELSE SO THEY CAN DO WHATEVER THEY WANT. ALSO, THEY ASSUME THAT A SPLIT FLOW IS GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING LIKE IT HAS THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE WINTER. BUT REALLY, THEY ARE JUST SAYING THAT BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED ALL WINTER AND THEY THINK, WELL JEEZ ITS HAPPENED ALOT THIS WINTER WHY DONT WE JUST ASSUME IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN?

HMM WE MAYBE IT COULD CHANGE THIS TIME BUT WE DON'T FEEL LIKE DOING THE RESEARCH AND WHAT NOT TO FIGURE THAT OUT SO WE'LLWAIT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO IT.

"I THINK WE'LL BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE"

MERCER($^&#&^#(**@^$JINKINS!@#!@)@(#%*@#$%@(*%&$&**%

And then TT agreed with me... Just clearing things up.

Guest · #3739 Postby **Guest** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:53 pm

And Anthony the change has been here for over a week now... This week was just a break in the action. This week was just for us to take a breather before the real stuff comes.

TT-SEA · #3740 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:02 pm

Brennan... you are correct on all accounts.

But I have been harping on this pattern change for a long time now!!

It has gone as almost exactly as I thought. Just a little later than I originally thought!!

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