Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

HUN:

THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME WE
ONLY HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO STATE THAT SNOW IS LIKELY AND THAT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGHLY PROBABLE...GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR
MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL WINTER STORM
FOR THIS REGION.


BMX:

THE SURFACE LOW
GENERATED FROM THIS WAVE IS NO LONGER DEEPENING AS IT SHIFTS WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BUT RATHER MAINTAINS ITS INITIAL
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT DO
DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. OVERALL...TRENDS ARE DOWN AND IT IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR.
KEEP IN MIND THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE WORKED
OUT...AND THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A LOWER END
THREAT.

Major disagreement.

[BigB0882]

Is this picture showing ice/snow for all the areas in the purple or does that just mean colder temps and the only ice and snow will be in the areas closer to the ice and snow graphic within the purple?

[Ivanhater]

I'm guessing wintry precip for that map.


Hattiesburg already putting Snow in the forecast.

Wednesday Night: Rain likely before midnight, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[BigB0882]

I will believe it when I see it. I don't think the wintry precip would come all the way to the coast with the temps seeming to be getting warmer with each model run. They don't have anything in the forecast for BTR although they have freezing rain for Beaumont. The track of the Low is really good but the temps haven't been going the right way.

[Brent]

That map is very vague, but I don't think they're implying snow to the coast, just the cold behind it. Even in Central Alabama it looks borderline for snow.

From Nashville, now this looks realistic for the snow area:



Oh and the models have backed WAY off on the cold, looks like upper teens at best here now which is not even the coldest we've been this winter, and BMX is saying "spring-like" by Sunday.

[MississippiWx]

Pretty much everyone south of I-20 in MS and everyone south of Central Alabama can forget about accumulating snows. The model trends are very much against a snow further south than that. We might see some flurries on the backside though. Overall, you can look for winter to bow out after this week and say hello to spring. It has been a very disappointing season for everyone south of I-20 in terms of snowfall. It just wasn't our year. So many chances and so many disappointments. I say good riddance to winter!

[Ivanhater]

I do agree that we have a big warm up coming after this event. Long range GFS looks warm for much of the SE. Many areas will be in the 70's. I can't complain

[BigB0882]

I'm ready for spring, too! I just hate all the wasted cold we had this year. It could have been a great winter but it just didn't come together. It never does down here, haha. Bring on the warmth! I will remember this winter because of this past week. Freezing rain and not getting above freezing for over 24 hours. That is really unusual, even when we get snow events we are up in the 40's by mid afternoon. It is very rare to stay below freezing all day this far south.

[Stormcenter]

Well based on the low's track on the graphic you posted then the wintry weather would be further north. But the track
Ivanhater posted the low tracks further south.

That map is very vague, but I don't think they're implying snow to the coast, just the cold behind it. Even in Central Alabama it looks borderline for snow.

From Nashville, now this looks realistic for the snow area:



Oh and the models have backed WAY off on the cold, looks like upper teens at best here now which is not even the coldest we've been this winter, and BMX is saying "spring-like" by Sunday.

[Brent]

I do agree that we have a big warm up coming after this event. Long range GFS looks warm for much of the SE. Many areas will be in the 70's. I can't complain

After this storm bring it on I say. I'm very likely heading to North Alabama Wed Night to ride out the storm if it still looks good up there.

[BigB0882]

Well based on the low's track on the graphic you posted then the wintry weather would be further north. But the track
Ivanhater posted the low tracks further south.

Yes, the Gulf low is slightly further south on Ivanhaters map. However, the snow in the TN area is, I think, from another Low that is riding through that area at that time. I don't think that snow is from the Low in the Gulf but please correct me if I am wrong.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, 12z Euro Ensemble is really far south with the Gulf low, actually crossing across Tampa. That would take much of Northern Alabama out of the picture, but would be great for South Mississippi and South Alabama.

[BigB0882]

Doesn't the Low tracking further south typically mean colder temps, as well? I guess it pulls down the cold air some? It is such a fine line. Too far south and we wont get any of the precip, but too far north we don't get cold enough. I am not going to get too invested in this but I have a strong feeling this is our last shot for anyone down here so I kind of hopes it works out for someone, if not for me!

[Brent]

Doesn't the Low tracking further south typically mean colder temps, as well? I guess it pulls down the cold air some? It is such a fine line. Too far south and we wont get any of the precip, but too far north we don't get cold enough. I am not going to get too invested in this but I have a strong feeling this is our last shot for anyone down here so I kind of hopes it works out for someone, if not for me!

Yes, generally, you want the low a good ways south of you. The heaviest snow is usually 150-200 miles north of the track(best moisture+usually barely cold enough). Panhandle=good for us. A low over us is good for TN/KY, etc.

[Metalicwx220]

I want to see some wite stuff this week, IF we don't see any, I will look forward to a tropical storm. I can't wait till next winter when they will be issuing snow forecast for the deep south

[Metalicwx220]

Doesn't the Low tracking further south typically mean colder temps, as well? I guess it pulls down the cold air some? It is such a fine line. Too far south and we wont get any of the precip, but too far north we don't get cold enough. I am not going to get too invested in this but I have a strong feeling this is our last shot for anyone down here so I kind of hopes it works out for someone, if not for me!

Yes, generally, you want the low a good ways south of you. The heaviest snow is usually 150-200 miles north of the track(best moisture+usually barely cold enough). Panhandle=good for us. A low over us is good for TN/KY, etc.

Is a low over orlando good for us!???

[Brent]

Doesn't the Low tracking further south typically mean colder temps, as well? I guess it pulls down the cold air some? It is such a fine line. Too far south and we wont get any of the precip, but too far north we don't get cold enough. I am not going to get too invested in this but I have a strong feeling this is our last shot for anyone down here so I kind of hopes it works out for someone, if not for me!

Yes, generally, you want the low a good ways south of you. The heaviest snow is usually 150-200 miles north of the track(best moisture+usually barely cold enough). Panhandle=good for us. A low over us is good for TN/KY, etc.

Is a low over orlando good for us!???

Yes but you also need the cold air to be in place too. It's very hard even here to get both...

[Metalicwx220]

The low needs to blowup in the GOM.

[Brent]

The low needs to blowup in the GOM.

That's usually how it happens here, the low has to be strong enough to pull down cold air(see 1993 for an extreme example, but that was a once a century winter "hurricane" pretty much). We've had numerous snow forecasts bust here because it didn't happen(too warm and was rain usually).

[Kennethb]

Odds favor no wintry precip this upcoming week, though if there were to be a surprise, this is the week.

-AO last year and this year have kept it cold and have kept the early spring flowers in check. The Taiwain Flowering Cherrries which has started blooming a few weeks ago, have come to a stop. There are no azaleas here in Baton Rouge in bloom yet. Just returned from LSU and the Japanese Magnolias have not bloomed yet. Before the spring of 2010 there had been plenty of warm winters to have the azaleas and Japanese Magnolias starting to bloom in January.

The AO has been positive since around February 1st and looks to remain positive for awhile, suggesting the warmup.