Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

Check out snow depth across Texas from Hour 312 (12z GFS) onward. Some people in central, northeast, and southeast Texas are going to be happy and will certainly hope this verifies.

North East Texas meaning along and east of I-35?

[Big O]

Check out snow depth across Texas from Hour 312 (12z GFS) onward. Some people in central, northeast, and southeast Texas are going to be happy and will certainly hope this verifies.

North East Texas meaning along and east of I-35?

Yes, for the most part.

[dhweather]

And 2 feet over Little Rock.

NOTE: This is the GFS at 384 hours, and very likely not to be accurate.

[dhweather]

Ryan Maue tweets

Arctic air has to go somewhere -- and it will take its time doing so. Day 11 shows 50°F below normal temps expanding

[aggiecutter]

And 2 feet over Little Rock.

NOTE: This is the GFS at 384 hours, and very likely not to be accurate.

That is a foot of snow for Texarkana. However, I don't anything for scenic southwest Austin.

[Tejas89]

OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.

I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.

Hey sorry Porta. Grounded was not the right word, just pointing out that pro mets are not "feeling it" yet.. (or aren't saying).

I wouldn't read these threads if I didn't find value in everyone's model interpretations. keep up the good work.

[texas1836]

And 2 feet over Little Rock.

NOTE: This is the GFS at 384 hours, and very likely not to be accurate.

There's still time for that 2 feet to switch over to McKinney. I'm paying veeeeeery close attention.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro backs up 12Z GFS, showing Major Arctic outbreak coming into the central US next weekend with some 30-40 deg F below normal temps. 1054 HP building in NW Canada around day 8-9 with another one on it's heels at day 10

[ronyan]

Ryan Maue tweets

Arctic air has to go somewhere -- and it will take its time doing so. Day 11 shows 50°F below normal temps expanding

Wow, 50F below normal in the dead of winter? Those are some frigid temps showing up in North/South Dakota.

[Big O]

12Z Euro backs up 12Z GFS, showing Major Arctic outbreak coming into the central US next weekend with some 30-40 deg F below normal temps. 1054 HP building in NW Canada around day 8-9 with another one on it's heels at day 10

Absolutely correct. By Day 10, there is textbook cross-polar flow/McFarland Signature with a broad based/bowl-shaped trough across central and eastern CONUS.

By hour 192, there is a 1053.6 high pressure cell over northwestern Canada. At hour 204, the HP has strengthened to 1054.2 and is moving south/southeast. By hour 240, the HP has "weakened" to 1041 mb, but it is over the northern U.S. Plains. At the same time, another impressive HP has developed over NW Canada poised to head south as well.

By hour 240, the Alaskan Ridge/-EP0 has extended far north into the arctic and linked with the central Russian ridge, thereby allowing air from Eurasia to be pumped into North America. Given this bridging of ridges, cold could be locked into place for an extended period of time if the model is correct.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I find it interesting our resident heat miser has been MIA for a few hours.

Does Qanatas fly directly from Intercontinental to the Land Down Under where they are having to suspend the Australian Open due to extreme heat? Sounds like that might be the place for him to go... Or maybe he is already on his way down there to sip adult beverages with the Kangaroos and Koala Bears.

[Ntxw]

Holey Moley 12z Euro, that is something isn't it?

[ronyan]

Meteograms have started to reflect the progged 500mb pattern. They can't be trusted at this range but currently they are more in line with a shot of arctic air into TX rather than it staying NE of us.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Holey Moley 12z Euro, that is something isn't it?

Details for us who can't get graphs and charts right now.

[Ntxw]

Holey Moley 12z Euro, that is something isn't it?

Details for us who can't get graphs and charts right now.

I'm at work so I can't post graphics but it is falling in line with the GFS that a pattern change is indeed occuring and dumps the motherlode of cold into the US.

The -EPO goes crazy

[gpsnowman]

What do the temps look like in Siberia and NW Canada? I wonder if they have been getting colder as the days pass?

[Portastorm]

OK, I'm posting now as a member and not as a moderator. I take issue with the suggestion that my posts or the posts of others who believe a pattern change is in the offing are posts that are not grounded or not based in fact. They are. We reference indices, model runs, other sources, etc. It's not wish-casting at all. None of us are making this stuff up. It's taking factual data and information and speculating on that information. So to suggest that our posts are not "grounded" is inaccurate at best and insulting at worst. Sorry but that's how I see it.

I see the comment Fort Worth made -- "FOR NOW THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JANUARY." -- and I find it quite surprising. Especially coming from the office where the great Dennis Cavanaugh works. I don't know what NWS Fort Worth defines as a "major signal" but there are plenty of suggestions and signals which do suggest a pattern shift. I would disagree with their assessment.

Hey sorry Porta. Grounded was not the right word, just pointing out that pro mets are not "feeling it" yet.. (or aren't saying).

I wouldn't read these threads if I didn't find value in everyone's model interpretations. keep up the good work.

Understood. It's all good. I have taken my Xanax since then and have calmed down.

Glad you continue to find value here. Don't worry, I won't snap again ... I'm about to embark on a self-imposed exile and hope to come back as the original Mr. Smile face. I don't see any exciting weather ahead anyhow ... I mean, no major signals for a pattern shift or anything like that.

[Rgv20]

Would not mind something comparable to the Arctic Outbreak of Feb 2011!

[Tireman4]

This will be an interesting couple of weeks coming up. ( Thank you Mr. Obvious..) )

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see the discordance within the 12z GFS individual ensemble members today. Very little consensus. Tells me the model is struggling with the period 10-15 days out. Also tells me that even though we all loved seeing that 12z GFS op run, we should take it with a grain of salt. The ensemble mean for the 12z GFS shows almost normal air temps for Texas in that same period ... I suppose that is a balance of all the extremes within its own members.