Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JayDT]

So these 7 day forecasts are probably gonna be trending a little colder based on these 12z model runs right?

[Ntxw]

So these 7 day forecasts are probably gonna be trending a little colder based on these 12z model runs right?

Likely so. Euro suites is probably what kept them conservative. That has bellied up

[gboudx]

Meanwhile a balmy 37F in DFW as of 1pm. This heat wave coming to an end soon folks!

Good. We’re driving back from Nola today and it was insanely hot in the 50s and 60s. Looking forward to some cooler weather.

[JayDT]

So these 7 day forecasts are probably gonna be trending a little colder based on these 12z model runs right?

Likely so. Euro suites is probably what kept them conservative. That has bellied up

I felt like they were putting a lot more weight on the Euro than they usually do.. I was actually really surprised about that. I mean I know the Euro is usually the more reliable one but they were just depending too much on it for this weekend and next week’s forecast

[Ntxw]

So these 7 day forecasts are probably gonna be trending a little colder based on these 12z model runs right?

Likely so. Euro suites is probably what kept them conservative. That has bellied up

I felt like they were putting a lot more weight on the Euro than they usually do.. I was actually really surprised about that. I mean I know the Euro is usually the more reliable one but they were just depending too much on it for this weekend and next week’s forecast

Hindsight is 20/20 but really as orangeblood said the GFS was the consistent model. Euro was waffling a few times. It has not been the same quality for our region since recent updates. Overdoing qpf, blowing up storms that aren't there in the northeast etc.

[bubba hotep]

Since the 00z runs on the 26th the Euro has come down about 15 degrees and the GFS had come up 10 degrees for the coldest day DFW during the upcoming cold snap. This feels like the point were the GFS fumbles it and keeps trending warmer and then in the end the "Euro Nailed It" crowd comes out.

[bubba hotep]

Likely so. Euro suites is probably what kept them conservative. That has bellied up

I felt like they were putting a lot more weight on the Euro than they usually do.. I was actually really surprised about that. I mean I know the Euro is usually the more reliable one but they were just depending too much on it for this weekend and next week’s forecast

Hindsight is 20/20 but really as orangeblood said the GFS was the consistent model. Euro was waffling a few times. It has not been the same quality for our region since recent updates. Overdoing qpf, blowing up storms that aren't there in the northeast etc.

The GFS, up to this point, has done better with the Pacific setup. This is surprising as it has been complicated with things getting kicked off last week with the jet extension and bombing low in the far east.

[Ntxw]

As long as the models still show 1050+hp, I'm not too worried about surface temps. With a cold source region at minimum its highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. Thats all you can ask for in a winter outbreak. I am hopefull we get some snow out of it even if a little

[Rgv20]

12zJMA has a 1060+ High in South Eastern Montana by New Years Day and by Tuesday Morning has 850mb temperatures below freezing for the entire state of Texas It is looking very likely that we are looking at a potent Arctic Outbreak to receive 2018!

[Ralph's Weather]

Thankfully we are within a day of being able to stop relying on the global models. If a 1050mb high comes crosses the Canadian border with -20s to -40s and snow cover in between then we will see single digits and teens.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM is up next. We are about in range to Saturday night frame at the end of that model. GFS has the 1050+hp working by then.

[Ntxw]

End of Euro has a massive -EPO Alaskan block. What the GFS started showing last night

[bubba hotep]

End of Euro has a massive -EPO Alaskan block. What the GFS started showing last night

With a big system in Pacific NW about to crash down in the SW with cold building in WCAN. Eventually, they'll get the timing right for a big Texas winter storm. Right lol

[Ntxw]

NAM has 1054mb in Canada (not yet into the US) with snow breaking out in Oklahoma leading edge of cold front. Similar to Euro with cold air damming into the Rockies front range. 850s looks more advanced than GFS

[losf1981]

NAM has 1054mb in Canada (not yet into the US) with snow breaking out in Oklahoma leading edge of cold front. Similar to Euro with cold air damming into the Rockies front range. 850s looks more advanced than GFS

tired of those okies getting all the snow!!

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

Longer-term models have begun to come toward an agreement
regarding the next cold outburst to ring in the new year. Models
are similar in bringing the next cold front through the region
right around midnight Sunday night, with an abrupt wind shift to
the north and plunging temperatures. EC has intensified the
surface high moving into the central plains, relative to previous
runs, while the GFS has backed off slightly on the high-intensity
surface high strength. This brings the model consensus closer to a
significant cold snap sweeping into Deep South Texas Monday
through Wednesday. Have pulled highs and lows downward Monday
through Wednesday, but not to an extreme amount as the main model
output is noting currently. This will put low temperatures for
Monday night/early Tuesday morning right around freezing for the
ranchlands and down to the mid 30s along the river. Models are
also in agreement of stalling the remnants of the front just
offshore and transitioning to another coastal trough. This will
keep northerly winds going across the region through Wednesday,
with cold temperatures and a slight chance for light rain, mainly
offshore.

[gpsnowman]

We are in business with the cold and in my opinion cold is never wasted. I love it considering in 6 months we will be praying for cold. But man, I want to see some snow, even if it is just a dusting. Or sleet, no freezing rain. Some moisture seems to be in the works so we shall see. Either way a cold NYE and cold NYD are looking good. Might just have to purchase a bottle of liquid gold for NYD to keep me warm for football.
..

[sphelps8681]

How is looking for SE Texas?

[Rgv20]

18zGFS has a 1053mb high in northern Montana by Saturday late night....1056mb by Sunday Morning.


EDIT: 18zGFS has a 1056mb high in Nebraska by Noon New Years day Going back a couple of runs back, the weakest I could find at this same time frame is 1052mb. Amazing consistency from the GFS

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/
/Saturday through Wednesday/
Saturday should start out with morning lows near 40, which are
expected to be the warmest temperatures until Wednesday afternoon.
The arctic front is currently expected to move south of the Red
River during the afternoon hours, with winds slowly shifting to
the north and northeast through the rest of the day. While the
winds will become north, they won`t immediately begin to increase.
The coldest air and the strongest winds will lag behind the
initial wind shift by about 10-12 hours, leading to near steady
temperatures on New Years Eve (day) in the 30s. With the front and
the cold air surge, there will be a slight chance of some rain
across the entire area, with widespread drizzle being a more
likely outcome.

By New Year`s Eve night, temperatures will continue to drop into
the 20s and upper teens in the rural areas. Midnight temperatures
will be in the mid-upper 20s, with north winds around 15 mph,
leading to wind chill readings between 10 and 20. There remains a
chance for light rain, drizzle or freezing drizzle on New Year`s
Eve as well. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is extremely difficult to
pinpoint, so continue to monitor the forecast through the weekend
for refinements of this forecast.

The main challenges with this forecast concern the precipitation
potential. Over the past day, the GFS and ECMWF have become a bit
more consistent with each other, yet still have some differences.
The ensemble mean GFS is quite similar to the ECMWF and have
tailored the extended portion of this forecast closely to this
solution. Have decent confidence in the temperature forecast, yet
have quite low confidence in the precipitation forecast. Forecast
soundings from nearly every model solution suggests there will be
a shallow (around 5,000 feet) dome of saturated cold air at the
surface, with an impressive dry inversion above this on New Year`s
Eve. This would suggest the most likely widespread precipitation
type would be drizzle/freezing drizzle, instead of light rain or
snow. Have kept the PoPs relatively low, in the 20-30% range, due
to lack of certainty. Unfortunately, whether or not the
precipitation will cause issues (which it would if temperatures
are below 30) remains to be seen. I wish we could tell for sure,
yet at this point, it is merely something to watch.

Fox

I'm beating the Arctic front is into the DFW area early Saturday morning with temps into the mid 30's by early afternoon.