Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

Man, every run I keep thinking there’s gonna be a step back from the models but it keeps getting more bullish. Insane!

Yeah it's been an unbelievable day to say the least. All these storms recently that had no moisture!! Heck Wednesday night I was staring into a light trying to see snowflakes

[rwfromkansas]

I do hope the speeding up doesn’t become an issue, but that’s the main concern I have. The cold is there. Assuming everything stays similar with speed with only some slowing or speeding up, moisture will be no problem.

Hopefully it will go negative still over TX at least.

The GEFS just keeps ramping it up fast. Just stunning.

I am going to keep watching for updates on the Tim Vasquez Forecast Lab on YouTube. Really good videos explaining what’s happening and why for big weather events.

[Texas Snow]

Man, every run I keep thinking there’s gonna be a step back from the models but it keeps getting more bullish. Insane!

Yeah it's been an unbelievable day to say the least. All these storms recently that had no moisture!! Heck Wednesday night I was staring into a light trying to see snowflakes

Lol I did the same thing and stood out in a 20 minute light sleet shower.

If the frontal timing is is is fast as the NAM may be suggesting I think it could spell major headaches for school districts across DFW.

Imagine you are a superintendent and you wake it up at 6 AM and it’s 42°. There’s no precipitation at all and the roads are dry, but the wind has shifted to the north. The forecasters are telling you the precipitation is coming later in the day and also the temperature will drop below 32 at some point during the day.

Tough call cancel school but also a way worse scenario having an early surprise sleet storm whiteout the roads before parents can even pick up their kids and getting them stuck. Hopefully it’s all more clear cut than that no matter what happens.

[HockeyTx82]

CMC has .5-.75 “ FrRN 1.5-2” Sleet then 4-6” Snow on back end across DFW…that would be a Dallas Stars ice rink/travel killer for several days looking at extended temps

Got my attention.

I was able to skate the streets in Denton in 2011.

[Brent]

Man, every run I keep thinking there’s gonna be a step back from the models but it keeps getting more bullish. Insane!

Yeah it's been an unbelievable day to say the least. All these storms recently that had no moisture!! Heck Wednesday night I was staring into a light trying to see snowflakes

Lol I did the same thing and stood out in a 20 minute light sleet shower

Wednesday night was funny actually I got home had seen nothing and kept checking nothing kept checking nothing. About to give up honestly got hungry and went to get pizza the snow just starts as I'm driving and that was the peak lol. As soon as I got home it was pretty much over I'm laughing about it again and I had forgotten about it since the hype started for this

[Ntxw]

CMC has .5-.75 “ FrRN 1.5-2” Sleet then 4-6” Snow on back end across DFW…that would be a Dallas Stars ice rink/travel killer for several days looking at extended temps

Cmc robs most of Kansas (TheProfessor) of snow. It's also how we can get big snow down here. Trowal would be a thumping of high ratio snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

CMC has .5-.75 “ FrRN 1.5-2” Sleet then 4-6” Snow on back end across DFW…that would be a Dallas Stars ice rink/travel killer for several days looking at extended temps

Cmc robs most of Kansas (TheProfessor) of snow. It's also how we can get big snow down here. Trowal would be a thumping of high ratio snow.

I feel like as we get close the backside precip shield will shrink in coverage but become more intense as the models focus on where the trowel will track. Also gonna be interesting if the trailing wave can bring a fluffy couple inches late Thursday.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not that I take it for much value, but Wunderground is already showing 4-8” Wednesday night into Thursday for the Dallas area

[TropicalTundra]

Man, every run I keep thinking there’s gonna be a step back from the models but it keeps getting more bullish. Insane!

Yeah it's been an unbelievable day to say the least. All these storms recently that had no moisture!! Heck Wednesday night I was staring into a light trying to see snowflakes

Lol I did the same thing and stood out in a 20 minute light sleet shower.

If the frontal timing is is is fast as the NAM may be suggesting I think it could spell major headaches for school districts across DFW.

Imagine you are a superintendent and you wake it up at 6 AM and it’s 42°. There’s no precipitation at all and the roads are dry, but the wind has shifted to the north. The forecasters are telling you the precipitation is coming later in the day and also the temperature will drop below 32 at some point during the day.

Tough call cancel school but also a way worse scenario having an early surprise sleet storm whiteout the roads before parents can even pick up their kids and getting them stuck. Hopefully it’s all more clear cut than that no matter what happens.

That's exactly what the BISD school district did last year lol. Thursday, Feb 11, 2021, the day of the ice storm when the DFW/Fort Worth pileup had already occurred, they stated "Our local staff and superintendents have been closely monitoring the situations on roads. No impacts or weather accumulations have been recorded. Make sure to bundle up before you come to school!!!!" At 6 am. Of course, they started schools in the district without thinking anything would happen and that the storm would dry slot CTX.

Complete opposite. It was complete mayhem to try to get kids back home. They closed all the schools around 12-1 pm while it was still icing and sleeting outside.

Never, EVER, underestimate weather storms when you work for a school district.

[Texas Snow]

Euro holds strong. Slight delay of changeover in DFW but not something that won’t change back and forth over the days (and likely end up faster due to model handling of cold air)

Edit:
Precip may be lasting longer with more snow than prior.

Haven’t seen temps yet. Good run for Dfw

[Ntxw]

Euro holds strong. Slight delay of changeover in DFW but not something that won’t change back and forth over the days (and likely end up faster due to model handling of cold air)

Euro is actually, considering, a fairly quick changeover from rain to sleet to snow for DFW. Cmc-esque,
Despite it being slow with cold air relative to others.

[Brent]

Euro holds strong. Slight delay of changeover in DFW but not something that won’t change back and forth over the days (and likely end up faster due to model handling of cold air)
Precip may be lasting longer.

Yeah it's trying to show that second wave on Thursday. Not as good as the other models but maybe it's getting there

[Haris]

OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected

[txtwister78]

Euro definitely with a much more "manageable" event right now for most of the state precip/temp wise. Big difference between that and GFS/CMC. So, with that we still have some model variability to watch going forward. More snow though.

[Ntxw]

OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected

It ticked up following its 18z ens mean.

[Texas Snow]

One thing I have noticed on Euro and now multiple models is how close that freezing gradient is to DFW when it matters most. This obviously affects those to south and east more, but that SE ridge is something potentially to watch, Really hoping to see a better push through the area.
Maybe I’ve just been snake bit too many times but can’t totally ignore it.

[Ntxw]

One thing I have noticed on Euro and now multiple models is how close that freezing gradient is to DFW when it matters most. This obviously affects those to south and east more, but that SE ridge is something potentially to watch, Really hoping to see a better push through the area.
Maybe I’ve just been snake bit too many times but can’t totally ignore it.

You need that gradient though. Strong convection it generates. We had a good euro day today.

Crazy to think we're not even in nam zone yet. Feels like 48 hrs away but way longer still so many runs.

[txtwister78]

Ahhh the good old unreliable UKMET. Who knows maybe it will hit once and be right?

[TheProfessor]

If it weren't for the GEFS consistently looking impressive (As well as the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), which has done well for our big events) for me I'd be close to giving up on this storm. EFI in particular has been targeting South-central and southeast Kansas along with northern Oklahoma for the last few days for snow. We'll see if it handled the location well.

In other news I went and and looked at the CIPS winter storm analogs and sure enough the 2011 Groundhog day blizzard shows up as the #2 analog. I'd 100% take a copy of that. We got 3-6" of snow with insane drifts in Wichita. East Kansas saw some 18" of snow. Obviously I'd love that but it doesn't seem likely right now.

[opticsguy]

When the models started showing the cold back last Thursday I decided to buy an extra space heater. Guess what, the two Lowe's and home Depot near me (McKinney) had already removed them and replaced the shelves with garden hoses and Roundup.. I did find some basic models at the Sulfur Springs Lowe's.

Was nothing learned last year?