Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

I just took a quick look at the 12z GFS meteogram for Tyler and it shows below freezing temps from the 27th through the end of the run along with some precip. We can wish

[orangeblood]

Interesting to see how discordance within the 12z GFS individual ensemble members today. Very little consensus. Tells me the model is struggling with the period 10-15 days out. Also tells me that even though we all loved seeing that 12z GFS op run, we should take it with a grain of salt. The ensemble mean for the 12z GFS shows almost normal air temps for Texas in that same period ... I suppose that is a balance of all the extremes within its own members.

Yep, this potential extreme pattern is probably very difficult for the individual ensemble members to decipher. This winter has already shown to trend towards the extreme (DFW top 5 for freezes so far this winter) so logic would tend to lead you in that direction.

Anyone checked out the 12Z Euro Control run ? Incredible blocking showing up in the Arctic in the 10-15 day range, some 4 Standard Deviations above normal. Also doesn't weaken the 1054 HP as it moves south like the GFS does

[dhweather]

Interesting to see the discordance within the 12z GFS individual ensemble members today. Very little consensus. Tells me the model is struggling with the period 10-15 days out. Also tells me that even though we all loved seeing that 12z GFS op run, we should take it with a grain of salt. The ensemble mean for the 12z GFS shows almost normal air temps for Texas in that same period ... I suppose that is a balance of all the extremes within its own members.

Well, hope is all we have. I just try to not get my hopes up too high, they usually get shattered when it comes to wintry precip. Maybe next Thursday we'll be talking about a high probability of a significant winter storm. If it's gonna be that cold - below freezing for highs, it better snow!! It's hard enough to get those temps down here!

Or wxman57 will go his his staples easy button for heat and laugh at all of us.

[ravyrn]

Oh, and here's a meteogram for Mesquite from the 00Z GFS - bone dry and above freezing through 192 hours.

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/6168/4ahj.png

If that's the 0Z GFS, the first date/time on the chart should be Jan 15 6PM CST, right? And the title should be WED 15 JAN 6PM CST GFS?

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN QUICKLY THROUGH OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND IT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. THIS NEXT SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL MEAN ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE MLK HOLIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN...BUT STILL NO RAIN LIKELY. THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUILDING IN.

[ravyrn]

I just took a quick look at the 12z GFS meteogram for Tyler and it shows below freezing temps from the 27th through the end of the run along with some precip. We can wish

Yeah, I did one for Jacksonville 30 miles south of you. The extended range looks very interesting on the 12Z GFS.

[Ntxw]

If it was any other winter, we'd probably be less inclined to believe the crazy runs but given it is 2013/2014 the NE Pacific ridging has beaten guidance. It has just experienced the greatest blocking 12 months the region has seen and is ongoing. Question is not if the blocking will happen it is a question of when and how strong.

[dhweather]

Oh, and here's a meteogram for Mesquite from the 00Z GFS - bone dry and above freezing through 192 hours.

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/6168/4ahj.png

If that's the 0Z GFS, the first date/time on the chart should be Jan 15 6PM CST, right? And the title should be WED 15 JAN 6PM CST GFS?

My bad - it was the 12Z.

[dhweather]

Maue tweets

Assuming this height field at 500-mb occurs just as advertised -- where does that 457 dam vortex go next?

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a light freeze across Houston the 27th-28th (and cold daytime highs) and 22F on the 1st of February. European ensembles much warmer, however. I'm still thinking that any significant cold would be delayed until at least the 2nd week of February.

[ravyrn]

Oh, and here's a meteogram for Mesquite from the 00Z GFS - bone dry and above freezing through 192 hours.

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/6168/4ahj.png

If that's the 0Z GFS, the first date/time on the chart should be Jan 15 6PM CST, right? And the title should be WED 15 JAN 6PM CST GFS?

My bad - it was the 12Z.

10-4, I believe you're still off by a day. I believe it should start Jan 16 6AM as opposed to the 17th.

[ravyrn]

On the meteogram that I posted of Jacksonville, TX... what would cause the temps aloft to rise back up near 50F while the temps at the surface remain at or below freezing?

[Ralph's Weather]

On the meteogram that I posted of Jacksonville, TX... what would cause the temps aloft to rise back up near 50F while the temps at the surface remain at or below freezing?

I too am curious about this. At face value that seems to show an ice storm which would be a terrible waste of the cold. Though we all know these kind of details are not important at this range.

[orangeblood]

On the meteogram that I posted of Jacksonville, TX... what would cause the temps aloft to rise back up near 50F while the temps at the surface remain at or below freezing?

I too am curious about this. At face value that seems to show an ice storm which would be a terrible waste of the cold. Though we all know these kind of details are not important at this range.

Probably warm advection just above the extremely dense shallow Arctic Air at the surface.

[BigB0882]

If we do have an outbreak of that kind, I hope it is more prolonged. Hearing that another strong H is on the heels of the first seems to suggest it would be. It also seems this area of cold is much better for Louisiana to take a hit. Not too far east or west. Now, if we could have the cold stick around long enough and bring a giant batch of moisture over top of it, wouldn't that be something? How about a nice coast hugging Low pressure system? All of the gulf coast gets 6+ inches? Deal? Maybe Wxman57's house can be dry slotted?

[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]12Z GFS has a light freeze across Houston the 27th-28th (and cold daytime highs) and 22F on the 1st of February. European ensembles much warmer, however. I'm still thinking that any significant cold would be delayed until at least the 2nd week of February.

Look at the 27th of January. Hummmmmm

[wxman57]

On the meteogram that I posted of Jacksonville, TX... what would cause the temps aloft to rise back up near 50F while the temps at the surface remain at or below freezing?

Easy to explain. A very shallow layer of sub-freezing air pushes south through the area. It only displaces the air near the surface, not up at 5000 ft. That would be a setup for freezing rain, not snow. Of course, assuming the GFS is correct in its 2-week forecast. Euro has nothing of the sort in its run.

[TheProfessor]

If we do have an outbreak of that kind, I hope it is more prolonged. Hearing that another strong H is on the heels of the first seems to suggest it would be. It also seems this area of cold is much better for Louisiana to take a hit. Not too far east or west. Now, if we could have the cold stick around long enough and bring a giant batch of moisture over top of it, wouldn't that be something? How about a nice coast hugging Low pressure system? All of the gulf coast gets 6+ inches? Deal? Maybe Wxman57's house can be dry slotted?

Only if it puts moisture on top of North Texas as well.

[Comanche]

Blurb from todays prog. disc., what does it mean and does anyone have these statistics?

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE
LINE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ANOMALY IN THE
INDIAN OCEAN. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DISPLAYS LARGE SPREAD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, SUGGESTING STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH STRONG TROPICAL
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS MIGHT BE USEFUL TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2 AND THEREAFTER.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS has a light freeze across Houston the 27th-28th (and cold daytime highs) and 22F on the 1st of February. European ensembles much warmer, however. I'm still thinking that any significant cold would be delayed until at least the 2nd week of February.

Does this mean we can put you on the 2nd week Feb 1899 camp instead of last week Jan 1985 camp?

Kidding aside, thanks for your input. It is possible that models are rushing changes too fast and may be the case that the coldest air will wait for Feb but there is definitely changes afoot. We will likely see a slow step down process until then which really has already begun with these impeding cold fronts. Should be felt further east first. Then it will become a Texas to Florida ordeal.

If you have been looking, models today have officially decided to tank the WPO with the EPO