Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

OK, hurricane season is now over, so I'll move away from the Talkin' Tropics thread for a while. Yeah, that's an interesting 12Z GFS run. Too bad it's shown a completely different pattern each run for the past few weeks. 12Z Canadian is much weaker with Friday's short wave, and it keeps most of the precip south in the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z Euro is in and it's WAY different from the GFS, moving the shortwave through on Thursday with high pressure and a clear sky Friday afternoon, the very time the GFS is forecasting a coastal low and snow over us (Houston). The Euro has that shortwave already off the East U.S. Coast by Friday afternoon!

So all we have is the GFS forecasting snow for now. I will wait for other models to jump on board with the snow forecast for SE TX before getting too excited about it. You know, the GFS reminds me of Lucy in Portastorm's avatar:

Thanks for the update wxman57.

[HockeyTx82]

Perhaps it is because I am new to the board, but I am not understanding the whole Lucy and the football thing. Would someone be so kind as to explain it. I might just be over thinking it. I have seen the cartoon, but I am not getting the joke.

Thanks!

[Portastorm]

OK, hurricane season is now over, so I'll move away from the Talkin' Tropics thread for a while. Yeah, that's an interesting 12Z GFS run. Too bad it's shown a completely different pattern each run for the past few weeks. 12Z Canadian is much weaker with Friday's short wave, and it keeps most of the precip south in the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z Euro is in and it's WAY different from the GFS, moving the shortwave through on Thursday with high pressure and a clear sky Friday afternoon, the very time the GFS is forecasting a coastal low and snow over us (Houston). The Euro has that shortwave already off the East U.S. Coast by Friday afternoon!

So all we have is the GFS forecasting snow for now. I will wait for other models to jump on board with the snow forecast for SE TX before getting too excited about it. You know, the GFS reminds me of Lucy in Portastorm's avatar:

Sir, it is VERY GOOD to have you over here and we need your wise counsel. You have recognized the WHY of my avatar as every winter season, I get wound up about a possible winter weather event in Austin ... based on model runs, mostly the GFS ... and every winter I get disappointed. It is the equivalent of Lucy yanking the football from Charlie Brown! Fortunately I have my good friends on S2K who I share this with and they get to watch my fall on my back side!

[Weatherdude20]

National Weather Service in Fort Worth says the following Counties in North Central Texas will be under a line of Snow Showers Wednesday morning from 6:00am to 9:00am:

Mills,Comanche,Brown,Eastland,Erath,Stephens,Palo Pinto,Parker,Wise,Denton,Cooke,Jack,Clay,Montague, and Young...

Little to no Accumulations are expected...

However in the western counties out of the 15 there could be non-signifigant amounts up to an Inch possible...

And to answer your question that i know is coming!!

Yes an Advisory or watch of some sort is already under consideration for Tuesday/Wednesday morning's Winter event by the NWS in the counties of :

Brown,Clay,Comanche,Eastland,Erath,Jack,Palo Pinto,Stephens,and Young.

[snow and ice]

The 12Z ECMWF continues the trend the GFS is showing. A big pattern change on the way folks, if guidance is correct. A VERY strong Polar Vortex in Central Canada dumping much colder air into N America.

Yes, the 12z EURO does look very cold:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9100412!!/

The 12z Ensembles are in close agreement:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f204.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Am I reading some of these GFS models correct? Are they suggesting frozen precip south of I-10, even getting close to the Coastal Bend? Right.... The GFS reminds me of Aggy football. More loses than wins.

[HockeyTx82]

National Weather Service in Fort Worth says the following Counties in North Central Texas will be under a line of Snow Showers Wednesday morning from 6:00am to 9:00am:

Mills,Comanche,Brown,Eastland,Erath,Stephens,Palo Pinto,Parker,Wise,Denton,Cooke,Jack,Clay,Montague, and Young...

Little to no Accumulations are expected...

However in the western counties out of the 15 there could be non-signifigant amounts up to an Inch possible...

And to answer your question that i know is coming!!

Yes an Advisory or watch of some sort is already under consideration for Tuesday/Wednesday morning's Winter event by the NWS in the counties of :

Brown,Clay,Comanche,Eastland,Erath,Jack,Palo Pinto,Stephens,and Young.

Where are you getting this information? From the NOAA website?

[Weatherdude20]

Some,yes... Most from other websites and HAM an NWS chats...

[srainhoutx]

With all that El Paso has on it's plate right now, I found it interesting that they even mentioned the shortwave we saw on the GFS earlier...

WED-WEEKEND: UPPER FLOW TO GO MORE W TO NW BRINGING GRADUAL WARMING
BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A WEAK S/WV DROPPING SOUTHWARD WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY JUST TOUCHING THE SACS WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS S/WV
MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A MINOR SECONDARY SURE OF COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE MOVING INTO THE BORDERLAND ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY SLOW THE
TEMP RECOVER JUST A LITTLE.

[gboudx]

Some,yes... Most from other websites and HAM an NWS chats...

You have access to NWS chat sessions?

[gboudx]

From jeff this afternoon.

Cold afternoon in progress with temperatures hovering in the upper 40’s/low 50’s under cloudy skies.

Winter storm system will affect the area tonight through early Wednesday.

Strong upper level storm system centered over NW old Mexico will move eastward tonight with large scale lift developing over the frontal slope atop the area. System is very dynamical with lightening network showing strikes west of El Paso this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will intensify overnight as coastal low is forced in strongly diffluent upper air pattern over the NW Gulf. NE surface winds will increase while 850mb winds increase out of the SSW pumping copious moisture over the surface cold dome resulting in the formation of widespread showers/rain. Models continue to show the heaviest QPF off the coast near the track of the surface low with lighter amounts inland. Still will likely see a widespread 1” with isolated amounts over 2” especially along the coastal counties. Main upper low center will eject across NC TX late Tuesday/early Wednesday with the threat for mixed precip. NW of I-35 into western N TX. Profiles over SE TX remain unfavorable for anything but a cold rain and do not foresee any sleet or snow potential with this system in any part of our area. Clouds, rain, and cold air advection will keep temperatures in the 40’s tonight through early Wednesday before a slight amount of warming late Wednesday if skies scatter out. May see highs in the 40’s both Tuesday and Wednesday if clearing is delayed.

Upper level system exits to the east Wed PM and skies should clear by late evening. Models starting to latch onto the colder trends and more cold air dumping into TX following this system. May see highs only in the 50’s on Thursday with sunny skies and then a good set up for mid 30’s to near freezing by Friday morning. 12Z GFS run is very aggressive in bringing moisture back northward on top of the cold air this weekend with critical thickness showing a wide variety of P-type solutions over coastal Texas. Models have been all over the place within the last few days showing all kinds of solutions with each run almost total 180’s from the previous and at odds with each other. I doubt the GFS will verify and for now will side with the more stable ECMWF model with a cooler yet drier solution. Forecast confidence beyond Friday is very low to say the least.

Still watching for the threat of coastal flooding issues Tuesday, although the threat seems a little less today versus yesterday at this time. Surface low should track a bit further south helping to hold the stronger winds offshore. Tides will run 1-2 feet above normal by Tuesday afternoon…but this should not cause serious issues.

[srainhoutx]

You have access to NWS chat sessions?

As I stated earlier, you never know who is reading the threads.

[HockeyTx82]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/#


content 5 (Snow?) show NWS prediction of snow for Dfw Area Wednesday morning

It's already gone..... So did they change their minds?

[Weatherdude20]

From jeff this afternoon.

Cold afternoon in progress with temperatures hovering in the upper 40’s/low 50’s under cloudy skies.

Winter storm system will affect the area tonight through early Wednesday.

Strong upper level storm system centered over NW old Mexico will move eastward tonight with large scale lift developing over the frontal slope atop the area. System is very dynamical with lightening network showing strikes west of El Paso this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will intensify overnight as coastal low is forced in strongly diffluent upper air pattern over the NW Gulf. NE surface winds will increase while 850mb winds increase out of the SSW pumping copious moisture over the surface cold dome resulting in the formation of widespread showers/rain. Models continue to show the heaviest QPF off the coast near the track of the surface low with lighter amounts inland. Still will likely see a widespread 1” with isolated amounts over 2” especially along the coastal counties. Main upper low center will eject across NC TX late Tuesday/early Wednesday with the threat for mixed precip. NW of I-35 into western N TX. Profiles over SE TX remain unfavorable for anything but a cold rain and do not foresee any sleet or snow potential with this system in any part of our area. Clouds, rain, and cold air advection will keep temperatures in the 40’s tonight through early Wednesday before a slight amount of warming late Wednesday if skies scatter out. May see highs in the 40’s both Tuesday and Wednesday if clearing is delayed.

Upper level system exits to the east Wed PM and skies should clear by late evening. Models starting to latch onto the colder trends and more cold air dumping into TX following this system. May see highs only in the 50’s on Thursday with sunny skies and then a good set up for mid 30’s to near freezing by Friday morning. 12Z GFS run is very aggressive in bringing moisture back northward on top of the cold air this weekend with critical thickness showing a wide variety of P-type solutions over coastal Texas. Models have been all over the place within the last few days showing all kinds of solutions with each run almost total 180’s from the previous and at odds with each other. I doubt the GFS will verify and for now will side with the more stable ECMWF model with a cooler yet drier solution. Forecast confidence beyond Friday is very low to say the least.

Still watching for the threat of coastal flooding issues Tuesday, although the threat seems a little less today versus yesterday at this time. Surface low should track a bit further south helping to hold the stronger winds offshore. Tides will run 1-2 feet above normal by Tuesday afternoon…but this should not cause serious issues.

I have reason to agree!

[gboudx]

You have access to NWS chat sessions?

As I stated earlier, you never know who is reading the threads.

Haha. Yeah, Weatherdude has some connections or is on the "inside". I asked the FTW webmaster about using the chat session resources and was given a list of eligible candidates. I'm none; just a public nobody. But it would be cool to have access to that resources in a a read-only format.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/#


content 5 (Snow?) show NWS prediction of snow for Dfw Area Wednesday morning

It's already gone..... So did they change their minds?

Looks like the graphic is updated.

[HockeyTx82]

There was a tab that said "Snow?" I saw it but now it is gone. The graphic you see now was there earlier as well.

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/#


content 5 (Snow?) show NWS prediction of snow for Dfw Area Wednesday morning

It's already gone..... So did they change their minds?

WAHHHHH!!! I just noticed that too!! I will work on finding that out! But did you catch it and check it out earlier when it was still up there?

And keep watching Content 4 (Storm System Update) Look at the very end! Hmmm it appears intresting for the DFW Metro... And please remember they have to air on the safe side because it is a govrnment ran web site an organanization that large can't just predict a snow storm and be wrong!

[gboudx]

And keep watching Content 4 (Storm System Update) Look at the very end! Hmmm it appears intresting for the DFW Metro... And please remember they have to air on the safe side because it is a govrnment ran web site an organanization that large can't just predict a snow storm and be wrong!

It looks strange the way the big snow/rain mix cloud just breaks down from the 2nd to last frame to the last, as it moves from the western counties towards the Metroplex.

[HockeyTx82]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/#


content 5 (Snow?) show NWS prediction of snow for Dfw Area Wednesday morning

It's already gone..... So did they change their minds?

WAHHHHH!!! I just noticed that too!! I will work on finding that out! But did you catch it and check it out earlier when it was still up there?

And keep watching Content 4 (Storm System Update) Look at the very end! Hmmm it appears intresting for the DFW Metro... And please remember they have to air on the safe side because it is a govrnment ran web site an organanization that large can't just predict a snow storm and be wrong!

Yes I did, it had a fine line just north and west of DFW. I live in Denton so I was right there. I noticed the current graphic has quite a snow storm west of DFW and then it just seems to packup and go all north of DFW? What is that all about? It seems the closer we get the more I think something might happen.

[joshskeety]

If the 18z GFS is as unimpressive as the 18z from Midland, Tx East, it will probably be the knife that ends any snow threat east of Sweetwater other than a flake here or there..

However... I will say this.. Heavy Snow being reported in El Paso right now and El Paso forecast had the changeover happening tonight.. The problem is the NAM is moving out the Gulf Low faster than projected the past few runs.. That will limit how much moisture is left.. Then it becomes how cold does it and are wetbulbs low enough in all layers to even support snow..

I do give the NWS crap all the time for being overly conservative, however, I would not want to be in their shoes with Southwest cutoff ULL.. They are so unpredictable that you almost don't know what is going to happen until it does.. Easter 1996 has to always be in the back of their minds because early on snow was forecasted, then about 72 out it seemed like it was going to be all rain.. DFW did see rain, but from Ranger Hill west it was one of Texas' biggest snow storms of all time and totally caught the NWS offguard and cost the state of Texas millions of dollars and 5 lives that COULD have been saved..