Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

18z ICON shifts south a bit and looks pretty good.



18z GFS doesn't consolidate the energy in the SW and ejects a strung out mess.

[harp]

The GFS offers no hope for most. It’s just not there. No real cold air like we were hoping for. It’s just not gonna happen, folks. I hate to say that because I’m the eternal optimist. It would be a dramatic and outlandish flip for the models at this stage, in my opinion.

[Itryatgolf]

I know it's still early, but from the get go it wasn't looking to be cold enough for most. If we had a decent hp to the north feeding in cold air, I would be doing back flips and cart wheels right now. That would also help shift slp further south and east. Hopefully we have another opportunity at some point in February or early March

[Itryatgolf]

It is somewhat interesting to me that the ao is trending positive. For me, I'm hoping it's attributed to the strong warming in the higher latitudes that could develop some type of ssw. My concern honestly is that we get a ssw that happens too late in the season but we shall see.

[Lagreeneyes03]

It is somewhat interesting to me that the ao is trending positive. For me, I'm hoping it's attributed to the strong warming in the higher latitudes that could develop some type of ssw. My concern honestly is that we get a ssw that happens too late in the season but we shall see.

an SSW event just in time to ruin Spring Break and make it freezing cold-never fails! lol

[Quixotic]

Gimme danger, little stranger……

[Cpv17]

The CFS model needs to be right for once!! It has a major winter weather event over Texas February 5th. Yeah, I’m sure it’ll happen

[Iceresistance]

The CFS model needs to be right for once!! It has a major winter weather event over Texas February 5th. Yeah, I’m sure it’ll happen

It's been hinting an active pattern into February for a while now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It is somewhat interesting to me that the ao is trending positive. For me, I'm hoping it's attributed to the strong warming in the higher latitudes that could develop some type of ssw. My concern honestly is that we get a ssw that happens too late in the season but we shall see.

an SSW event just in time to ruin Spring Break and make it freezing cold-never fails! lol

Skiing on spring break with it not being 40 damn degrees would be great for a lot. I like 20s in March. Preferably, I’d rather not see 80 again until May

[Lagreeneyes03]

It is somewhat interesting to me that the ao is trending positive. For me, I'm hoping it's attributed to the strong warming in the higher latitudes that could develop some type of ssw. My concern honestly is that we get a ssw that happens too late in the season but we shall see.

an SSW event just in time to ruin Spring Break and make it freezing cold-never fails! lol

Skiing on spring break with it not being 40 damn degrees would be great for a lot. I like 20s in March. Preferably, I’d rather not see 80 again until May

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

[Ntxw]

an SSW event just in time to ruin Spring Break and make it freezing cold-never fails! lol

Skiing on spring break with it not being 40 damn degrees would be great for a lot. I like 20s in March. Preferably, I’d rather not see 80 again until May

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

When it's 80s in January mother nature tends to balance it out and pay the dues.

Seriously there is a background connection. A strong SPV in winter tends to break down hard in final spring warming PV that happens annually.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That ULL next tuesday on the Euro looks like snow to me. Surface temps are off. Models always screw that up. If precip is falling, it will bring cooler air down with it.

Temps with that system have dropped in the local forecasts. I hope you are correct. By the way, how did you like your snowstorm in Denver yesterday? Lucky.

It initially was a bust! I was sketch about the storm going into it. They were looking for closer to a foot in the morning, and woke up to 3", but the ULL hanging over the area kept sending band after band into the area. I ended up with 8". It's very difficult to forecast here. Models dont have a good idea of what will happen with storms coming from the west. Im starting to get the hang of whats to come, so there are little surprises for me.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That ULL next tuesday on the Euro looks like snow to me. Surface temps are off. Models always screw that up. If precip is falling, it will bring cooler air down with it.

Temps with that system have dropped in the local forecasts. I hope you are correct. By the way, how did you like your snowstorm in Denver yesterday? Lucky.

It initially was a bust! I was sketch about the storm going into it. They were looking for closer to a foot in the morning, and woke up to 3", but the ULL hanging over the area kept sending band after band into the area. I ended up with 8". It's very difficult to forecast here. Models dont have a good idea of what will happen with storms coming from the west. Im starting to get the hang of whats to come, so there are little surprises for me.

Headed your way next week. A night in DEN, then Breck, Vail and then back country alpine skiing via helicopter drops.

Can’t wait! It’s going to be cold.

[Iceresistance]

Skiing on spring break with it not being 40 damn degrees would be great for a lot. I like 20s in March. Preferably, I’d rather not see 80 again until May

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

When it's 80s in January mother nature tends to balance it out and pay the dues.

Seriously there is a background connection. A strong SPV in winter tends to break down hard in final spring warming PV that happens annually.

January 2021 was also generally warm too, then came February 2021 and the rest was history. (How many times am I going to mention February 2021? )

[Itryatgolf]

Skiing on spring break with it not being 40 damn degrees would be great for a lot. I like 20s in March. Preferably, I’d rather not see 80 again until May

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

When it's 80s in January mother nature tends to balance it out and pay the dues.

Seriously there is a background connection. A strong SPV in winter tends to break down hard in final spring warming PV that happens annually.

The issue with that is even if it happens that late, it won't be cold enough by then for us to see winter weather most likely here. I hate that we have wasted most of January on above normal temperatures and looks to do the same in February, at least early on. I know alot of people put all their eggs in one basket when it comes to ssw events. We had a good event in Feb 2021 but if it is to happen this winter, hopefully mother nature will allow it to happen pretty soon

[Itryatgolf]

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

When it's 80s in January mother nature tends to balance it out and pay the dues.

Seriously there is a background connection. A strong SPV in winter tends to break down hard in final spring warming PV that happens annually.

January 2021 was also generally warm too, then came February 2021 and the rest was history. (How many times am I going to mention February 2021? )

It would be nice to see a very similar transition

[Ntxw]

Not in North Texas though, there's no ski here. It's hard when you try to plan outdoor activities with kids, zoos, six flags, San Antonio, etc. Prefer it NOT to be 55 degrees and rainy or "brisk".

When it's 80s in January mother nature tends to balance it out and pay the dues.

Seriously there is a background connection. A strong SPV in winter tends to break down hard in final spring warming PV that happens annually.

The issue with that is even if it happens that late, it won't be cold enough by then for us to see winter weather most likely here. I hate that we have wasted most of January on above normal temperatures and looks to do the same in February, at least early on. I know alot of people put all their eggs in one basket when it comes to ssw events. We had a good event in Feb 2021 but if it is to happen this winter, hopefully mother nature will allow it to happen pretty soon

Oh yeah. I was just noting the mechanics. Personally I don't really care for extreme cold to happen, just give us a couple of good snow events. El Nino so far isn't turning on fast either or signs, so there is no promise of a wet spring either.

[Brent]

The CFS model needs to be right for once!! It has a major winter weather event over Texas February 5th. Yeah, I’m sure it’ll happen

That sounds about right I've been telling my weather friend I'm concerned about the weather for the storm chasing summit in OKC in early February like who picks that time for that he's trying to get me to go and I'm just like we'll see

[Ntxw]

0z Icon is digging the system about as far south as it has so far, on par with the Euro.

Edit: but too warm at the surface on the run.

[Cpv17]

The CFS model needs to be right for once!! It has a major winter weather event over Texas February 5th. Yeah, I’m sure it’ll happen

It's been hinting an active pattern into February for a while now.

They never verify. It’s always in the long range.