Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

One of the many aspects of this that I think is important to point out is this shouldn't be too much of a disruption to travel. With temps forecast to be just at or above freezing for the entire duration of this event, roads should stay wet unless there's a quick burst of snow but even that should quickly melt. This is likely a grass and roofs covered snow event, not a snow packed roads/travel issue type!

[Ralph's Weather]

Again this morning for the Tyler area, there is a massive range of outcomes from mostly rain with some mix to a foot of snow. As expected hires models show a colder profile. Again models print out 1-2" QPF area wide. I still do not see much freezing rain with this though there will be some. Areas where sleet is the main type are looking at 1-4" accumulations (say maybe areas from Hillsboro to Carthage up to maybe Tyler/Longview). A more even mix of sleet and snow would be like 4-8" (maybe Cleburne to Longview type areas). The main snow band will be a general 6-10" with some over a foot (thinking I-30 is a good bet).

I hope you're right (for Longview), but the pessimist in me expects more rain and melting with temperatures forecast to hover near or slightly below freezing at worst, and above freezing otherwise. If more models showed better outcomes for the I-20 corridor, I'd have more hope. I think the I-30 corridor to the Red River is the money zone.

Key will be how much sleet falls early on. If you get a solid layer of sleet from a heavy shower then everything sticks to that layer of ice. Next key is when the transition to mainly snow happens tomorrow evening or later in the night.

[opticsguy]

When can we actually dial this in to know if we're going to have a very impactful storm or not? I agree I think temperatures will definitely play a role especially at the surface in terms of how much accumulates.

I think there's alot of expectation that everything will be closed tomorrow, but there's also a lot of talk of well it's too warm the roads will be fine just because snow is on the grass doesn't mean we're closing.

Is there a chance we get a decent uptick once it starts moving over Texas since it's still over the Baja and we get better data?

Or has our fate been set?

any roads that are not in the sun during the day will be slick. I remember in 2021 the north/south roads in the Piney Woods were fine, but the E/W roads had snow and ice on them for days. May not be an issue in the treeless areas.

[wxman22]

OUN is now going for up to one inch of snow for the Wichita Falls area.Several models are coming in more aggressive with back building bands of snow forming to the west and training over the area most of tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised if those totals go up to 1-3 inches if the trend continues in the 12z runs.Stay tuned

[snownado]

One of the many aspects of this that I think is important to point out is this shouldn't be too much of a disruption to travel. With temps forecast to be just at or above freezing for the entire duration of this event, roads should stay wet unless there's a quick burst of snow but even that should quickly melt. This is likely a grass and roofs covered snow event, not a snow packed roads/travel issue type!

Or in essence, a Nothingburger.

[orangeblood]

When can we actually dial this in to know if we're going to have a very impactful storm or not? I agree I think temperatures will definitely play a role especially at the surface in terms of how much accumulates.

I think there's alot of expectation that everything will be closed tomorrow, but there's also a lot of talk of well it's too warm the roads will be fine just because snow is on the grass doesn't mean we're closing.

Is there a chance we get a decent uptick once it starts moving over Texas since it's still over the Baja and we get better data?

Or has our fate been set?

any roads that are not in the sun during the day will be slick. I remember in 2021 the north/south roads in the Piney Woods were fine, but the E/W roads had snow and ice on them for days. May not be an issue in the treeless areas.

It just doesn't look like it'll be cold enough to stay slick for very long, in the sun or not. Temps not forecast to be enough below freezing to make a huge impact to travel IMHO

[orangeblood]

One of the many aspects of this that I think is important to point out is this shouldn't be too much of a disruption to travel. With temps forecast to be just at or above freezing for the entire duration of this event, roads should stay wet unless there's a quick burst of snow but even that should quickly melt. This is likely a grass and roofs covered snow event, not a snow packed roads/travel issue type!

Or in essence, a Nothingburger.

I think so, just enjoyable to look at for some. Unless forecasted temps are way underdone, I just don't see how 32-33 F is going to impact much for very long particularly once the sun comes up

[snownado]

One of the many aspects of this that I think is important to point out is this shouldn't be too much of a disruption to travel. With temps forecast to be just at or above freezing for the entire duration of this event, roads should stay wet unless there's a quick burst of snow but even that should quickly melt. This is likely a grass and roofs covered snow event, not a snow packed roads/travel issue type!

Or in essence, a Nothingburger.

I think so, just enjoyable to look at for some. Unless forecasted temps are way underdone, I just don't see how 32-33 F is going to impact much for very long particularly once the sun comes up

There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.

[orangeblood]

Or in essence, a Nothingburger.

I think so, just enjoyable to look at for some. Unless forecasted temps are way underdone, I just don't see how 32-33 F is going to impact much for very long particularly once the sun comes up

There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.

True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday. Saturday morning may be the worst with temps tanking into the low 20's and residual moisture refreezes

[GeauxTigers]

So, are now saying this will pretty much amount to nothing now? Like a little snow, then by end of day it's all gone? No travel issues? No cancellations?

[snownado]

I think so, just enjoyable to look at for some. Unless forecasted temps are way underdone, I just don't see how 32-33 F is going to impact much for very long particularly once the sun comes up

There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.

True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday

And I'm good with that.

I was really only getting invested in this for the Big Dog prospects. Otherwise, I'll pass on snow & cold.

[snownado]

So, are now saying this will pretty much amount to nothing now? Like a little snow, then by end of day it's all gone? No travel issues? No cancellations?

To be clear, it will likely snow and it will likely cause some travel disruptions.

But it's also increasingly likely this won't be the high-impact "shut down the city" snowfall that folks were starting to hype up.

[HockeyTx82]

I think so, just enjoyable to look at for some. Unless forecasted temps are way underdone, I just don't see how 32-33 F is going to impact much for very long particularly once the sun comes up

There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.

True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday

Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before and we don't shut down when it rains!

[txtwister78]

Decent trends across N Texas with models this morning. Basically, this is unfolding as you typically see on the back end of these systems with just enough colder air in the upper levels being pulled down behind them further north to help transition rain/sleet to 4-6 hours of all snow before it's all said and done depending on which model you look at.

Good news is travel impacts should be limited up there with surface temps hovering at or just above freezing and surface roads much warmer even during the duration of the snow (so not shutdowns or having to deal with a foot of snow). HRRR as one example never drops below 32 during the snow transition whereas the NAM is a tiny bit warmer with temps in 33-34 range. I think 2-4 inches looks reasonable (which is slightly above the NMB) with most of the precip as sleet or even a cold rain if the NAM is correct before switching over around midnight Friday morning to all snow further south into DFW.

It won't be the Euro version but at least you guys get something after having tracked this for several days.

[snownado]

There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.

True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday

Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before........

Still though, it hurts because of how close this was to what could have been

[orangeblood]

So, are now saying this will pretty much amount to nothing now? Like a little snow, then by end of day it's all gone? No travel issues? No cancellations?

I can't speak to that, that's up to airlines/government authorities. I'm just giving an opinion on what marginal freezing temp events usually end up being...there can be travel disruptions but they usually don't last long once daylight starts. Temps are forecast to rise into upper 30's with clearing skies by late morning Friday.

Heavy bursts of snow can cause issues so depending on where you're located, you could have some impacts. But this is not 2021 with temps in the teens, ice/snow packed roads type of storm.

[HockeyTx82]

True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday

Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before........

Still though, it hurts because of how close this was to what could have been

I would not be shocked in the near future if we start closing down businesses and schools when the pollen count gets too high for mountain cedar or some other allergen.

Bookmark this post so you can look back and say my God he was right.

[Yukon Cornelius]

OUN is now going for up to one inch of snow for the Wichita Falls area.Several models are coming in more aggressive with back building bands of snow forming to the west and training over the area most of tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised if those totals go up to 1-3 inches if the trend continues in the 12z runs.Stay tuned

https://i.ibb.co/SRrD77k/IMG-0141.png

The last I looked the HRRR looked pretty decent for us. I think it either going to be a nice surprise for us or nothing much.

[Ralph's Weather]

Around here key is the warm nose tomorrow 1C or 4C. Surface will be 32-35F so at 1C sleet is likely but at a warmer warm nose it could just be cold rain with some sleet. By sometime tomorrow night it should transition to snow or rain/snow

[TropicalTundra]

RGEM still looking pretty. Somehow a foot, probably accounting for other precip too if I had to guess