Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Iceresistance]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Yeah, it does this now

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwQ4.png

[orangeblood]

So what's the general consensus at this point for Central Texas/Austin? From what I can gather we will have a rain turned to freezing rain turned to sleet turned to maybe some stray flurries on the back end as the system ejects?

What are the key factors as far as timing/p-type goes? My amateur experience is that we're often faster and colder with these shallower airmasses than is modeled. If I'm understanding correctly that would likely lead to more sleet if we could get the colder temps quicker?

What sorts of trends should we be watching for if we want to get away from the freezing rain train? Any hope for a more robust transition to snow down here? Almost all the discussion here centers on NTX but that 200 miles makes a huge difference!

Here is the Austin Bergstrom forecast sounding for Saturday Night...see the warm nose to the right of the 0 C deg line. Right now it's 6-8 C deg above freezing. However, plenty of snow being produced in the DGZ (The red bars represent negative omega values (ascent or upward motion). Rising air in the DGZ enhances snow growth by lifting moisture into the optimal temperature range) at the upper levels but it's going to melt as it falls through that warm nose. You'll need to get that down below the 3-4 C range to get more sleet into the picture. Everything has been trending colder so it's on the table

[South Texas Storms]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.

Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.

[Brent]

20 inches on the ukmet and GFS

Can Oklahoma even handle 20 inches of snow. I'm not convinced

[TomballEd]

Not sure the exact date, about 2010. I took walks after lunch at work on the top level of parking garages in the Galleria. Cold and miserable, maybe 40F on a N wind and low clouds, like 2000 or 3000 feet low clouds, were racing to the N. I think Dallas got some winter weather. But how can it be sleeting in the teens. Shallow airmasses are shallow. I have given up on not having to search student bags at metal detectors Monday.

It seems unfair, DFW has a lot more intense thunderstorms and winter weather (I used to live in Bedford). Down here in Houston, well, there was a tornado a couple of month ago a few miles from my house (damage in Klein area near Theiss Farm Road) but generally Houston has very bland weather.

[JDawg512]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.

Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.

Hear hear! Give us the rain. I was considering setting up my giant heat lamp again, however it broke down during the last ice storm and haven't replaced the parts...

[LearnedHat]

[/quote]Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.[/quote]

I have some property between Kerrville and Harper (2,000-2,100). Do you think it will get a good soaking of rain before the more damaging precip starts?

I know this site is not for personal palm reading but if you have a hunch. Also, I am not make life and death decisions on the forecast --- just interested to know since I have invested a lot in that property.

I have other issues like deciding how to winterize and leave my home north of Fort Worth and get down to my 81 year old mother's house in Temple so I can see her through this thing.

[TomballEd]

We got some decent rain yesterday. And we should get about an inch per GFS ensembles this weekend. Which is good. Last week a wildfire started in the Addicks Reservoir. Could see the smoke from Houston. Eventually, HFD and Texas A&M Forestry Service decided to set a containment and let the rest burn, they let it become a controlled burn. Cause it has been dry.

But even though I think its nothing here, I will take the rain. 6Z EPS even wetter, closer to 2 inches. We take.

[South Texas Storms]

Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.[/quote]

I have some property between Kerrville and Harper (2,000-2,100). Do you think it will get a good soaking of rain before the more damaging precip starts?

I know this site is not for personal palm reading but if you have a hunch. Also, I am not make life and death decisions on the forecast --- just interested to know since I have invested a lot in that property.

I have other issues like deciding how to winterize and leave my home north of Fort Worth and get down to my 81 year old mother's house in Temple so I can see her through this thing.[/quote]

Yes, it looks like you should get a good wetting rain before the freezing temperatures arrive.

[opticsguy]

So what's the general consensus at this point for Central Texas/Austin? From what I can gather we will have a rain turned to freezing rain turned to sleet turned to maybe some stray flurries on the back end as the system ejects?

What are the key factors as far as timing/p-type goes? My amateur experience is that we're often faster and colder with these shallower airmasses than is modeled. If I'm understanding correctly that would likely lead to more sleet if we could get the colder temps quicker?

What sorts of trends should we be watching for if we want to get away from the freezing rain train? Any hope for a more robust transition to snow down here? Almost all the discussion here centers on NTX but that 200 miles makes a huge difference!

Here is the Austin Bergstrom forecast sounding for Saturday Night...see the warm nose to the right of the 0 C deg line. Right now it's 6-8 C deg above freezing. Plenty of snow being produced in the DGZ at the upper levels but it's going to melt as it falls through that warm nose. You'll need to get that down below the 3-4 C range to get more sleet into the picture. Everything has been trending colder so it's on the table

https://images.weatherbell.com/sounding/gfs-deterministic/KAUS/sounding/1769083200/1769331600-DbyQp2dd4II.png

Here's a thought. If the area to the right of the 0C sounding curve is more than the area to the left, it's freezing rain. If they are the same or there's more to the left, it's sleet

[rwfromkansas]

Get this trend a little more south. We are not far off.

https://i.imgur.com/zwIdxWs.gif

Is that vort line going n/s east of DFW responsible for that final round of snow?

[Ntxw]

Get this trend a little more south. We are not far off.

https://i.imgur.com/zwIdxWs.gif

Is that vort line going n/s east of DFW responsible for that final round of snow?

It is, along with the vort coming in from the northwest. The further south the original upper level low ejects the more we are likely to be in the snow during that round.

[orangeblood]

Analyzing the HRRR DFW sounding for Sunrise Saturday morning...this is a heavy sleet look with an argument for heavy snow. It has a lot of the ingredients you want to see - stronger ascent in the DGZ, deeper cold, and higher moisture. The wind and sheer look good too, Hodograph shows strong veering (classic warm advection turning to cold advection), with notable low-level shear. Everything shifting south is a real possibility IMHO

[snownado]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Too bad the mid-level temps don't suppprt that (I noticed it on the 00z run last night and ignored it for that reason).

Wacky model...

[HockeyTx82]

Thoughts on when we get a winter storm warning issued for DFW?

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Seems like a very impressive system coming. Good luck to everyone! Our nws Meg is saying historic winter storm. Also, looks like maybe another event in 7-8 days. I hope February and March are interesting also. I want as much action we can get

[bubba hotep]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

[TarletonTexan]

In the southwest region of DFW, should I expect the rain to be heavy on Friday night? I will be salting and sanding roads in a large HOA and would like to not have it all wash away prior to freezing. Trying to plan on putting it down right as it transitions to freezing rain/sleet. However, if its just light rain or drizzle, that would allow me to start earlier and avoid sketchy conditions trying to get back home for my staff & I.

[Ntxw]

In the southwest region of DFW, should I expect the rain to be heavy on Friday night? I will be salting and sanding roads in a large HOA and would like to not have it all wash away prior to freezing. Trying to plan on putting it down right as it transitions to freezing rain/sleet. However, if its just light rain or drizzle, that would allow me to start earlier and avoid sketchy conditions trying to get back home for my staff & I.

Could be steady light to moderate rain tomorrow evening. By noon is when light to moderate rain will start streaming in from the SW. So quicker if you're in the SW.

[HockeyTx82]

STORM2K HYPE STATEMENT & PRE‑GAME PEP TALK

We Are Officially Inside the 48‑Hour Window

Ladies and gentlemen, weather enthusiasts, lurkers, doomposters, hopium dealers, and everyone in between — this is it. We’ve crossed the threshold. The lights are dimming, the curtain is rising, and the Storm2k crowd is leaning forward in their seats.

We are less than 48 hours from Showtime, and the energy across the forum is shifting from nervous pacing to full‑on pre‑game swagger.

THE VIBES RIGHT NOW
- The mood has evolved from “I don’t trust anything” to “Okay… I’m listening.”
- Posters are starting to sound like they’ve had a good night’s sleep for the first time in days.
- Even the professional pessimists are cracking a smile.
- Lurkers are emerging from the shadows like groundhogs sensing hype instead of winter.

THE SIGNS ARE EVERYWHERE
- Guidance is tightening up like a drumline before kickoff.
- The National Weather Service is nudging lines, shading maps, and dropping subtle hints that feel like meteorological foreshadowing.
- Local forecasters are using phrases like “worth watching,” “trending favorably,” and “stay tuned,” which in weather‑speak is basically a confetti cannon.

THE PREGAME LOCKER ROOM TALK
Alright team — gather up.

This is the moment where Storm2k shines.
This is where the threads get loud, the GIFs get spicy, and the optimism gets cautiously bold.

You’ve trained for this.
You’ve stared at maps until your eyes crossed.
You’ve endured the doom cycles, the wobble cycles, the “it’s over” cycles, and the “wait maybe not” cycles.

And now?
Now we’re stepping onto the field.

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT
- A surge in hype posts as confidence builds.
- A few dramatic “I’m ready” GIFs.
- The ceremonial polishing of rulers, yardsticks, and snowboards.
- At least one user declaring, “I’m not sleeping until this thing hits.”

YOUR GAME PLAN
- Charge your devices.
- Stock up on snacks.
- Hydrate — the F5 key is about to get a workout.
- Keep one eye on the radar and the other on Storm2k.
- And most importantly: enjoy the ride.

Because folks…
Showtime is coming.
And Storm2k is ready.