Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re:

#3821 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:19 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Apparently there will be flurries in south alabama in 6 hours according to the 18znam


LOL it's 54 way up here. Let me know how that goes. :P

BMX afternoon update:

DISREGARDING THE GFS AS A DRY/WEAK OUTLIER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
VERY NEAR WEST ALABAMA JUST BEFORE 00Z THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE IS PRETTY COLD WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARDS AN ALL SNOW ONSET ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS WANT TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATION COULD BE IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THOSE DETAILS WILL
HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT BUT THE
GENERAL THINKING OF A ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS FOR NOW.
AS SAID EARLIER...THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE DEEP SOUTH SO CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY HIGH THAT THIS REMAINS A LOWER END EVENT.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3822 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:24 pm

I don't know lane. Models have only recently(today) trended wetter further north. Give it til tomorrow evening and we should have a better idea.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3823 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:31 pm

I think temps are a huge problem further south, below I-20 and especially I-85.

HUN:

USING A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THAT
AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AND THE POSSIBLE RANGE
OF SNOWFALL IS MUCH GREATER. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST SHIFTS.
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Metalicwx220

#3824 Postby Metalicwx220 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:58 pm

Let me guess the models have a hard time 6 hours out.
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Re:

#3825 Postby stormy70 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:22 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Apparently there will be flurries in south alabama in 6 hours according to the 18znam


If there are I will make sure everyone knows. LOL I want snow so bad so my children can see it!
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#3826 Postby Metalicwx220 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:52 pm

18z gfs has it too. just dont understand how temps will drop so quick and moisture still be leftover. :?:
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Re:

#3827 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:02 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:18z gfs has it too. just dont understand how temps will drop so quick and moisture still be leftover. :?:


Moisture's already gone here. These models are terrible. :lol:

So the consensus today is the most snow falls in S AR/W MS and amounts decrease further east into MS and into AL/GA. We'll see. The GFS/NAM couldn't be anymore different here, NAM has 2-6 inches in my area and the GFS has nary a single flake anywhere in the state.
Last edited by Brent on Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Metalicwx220

#3828 Postby Metalicwx220 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:04 pm

Welll I can't post images now because I forgot my password on imgeshack, and forgot my password for yahoo. Isnot that something? I have all these passwords and almost forgot my password on here.. Hatee these situations.... anyways the wed-thurs storm has disapeared.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3829 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:12 pm

NWS Mobile/Pensacola still has Wintry precip in the forecast across the NW zones.

THE EURO AND NAM FAVOR A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC
LOW WHEREAS THE GFS AND GEM HAVE A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH LOW. THE
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW
MUCH RAIN WE GET AND IF ANY MIXED PRECIP FALLS. FOR NOW...AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
/13
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3830 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:19 pm

James Spann's prediction... not good:

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3831 Postby Ynotndalton » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:28 pm

Models didn't trend wetter.. they have stayed the same.. the Nam has had the same forecast since the storm came into short range.. actually it looks a little worse than it did this morning if anything.
Gfs stilll showing the same deal as well.
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#3832 Postby Metalicwx220 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:12 pm

Yay more rain is on the way tonight. Might see a flash of lightting acompanied by a rumble of thunder. :D :D :D i hope there is wind. Wind makes storms more interesting.
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#3833 Postby Metalicwx220 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:17 pm

Image
Lets bet this is going to weaken before it arrives. Anyoone?
Last edited by Metalicwx220 on Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3834 Postby DEEDEE911 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:19 pm

i live in southwest mississippi and our meterologist is saying we can see 2 to 4 inches of snow wendsday night and thursday morning
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#3835 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:41 pm

We sure are getting some strong wind gusts behind this front tonight. I've had a gust to 35mph.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3836 Postby TideJoe » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:51 pm

DEEDEE911 wrote:i live in southwest mississippi and our meterologist is saying we can see 2 to 4 inches of snow wendsday night and thursday morning


I'm 100 miles or so to your east and we'll be lucky to see a few flakes according NWS Jackson.
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Re:

#3837 Postby tugreenie » Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:16 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Apparently there will be flurries in south alabama in 6 hours according to the 18znam


Friday night we had "heavy" flurries just south if Kiln, Ms. As I was driving home tonight at the MS/LA border ran into some sprinkles and light rain so maybe your temp will drop off quick enough to get those flurries! Good luck.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3838 Postby timmeister » Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:54 pm

Map from the NWS in Jackson:

Image
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#3839 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:57 pm

That map has snow accumulation much further into MS than I thought it would, right to the LA border. Baton Rouge is always the dividing line and never on the good side, haha
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: Early February Fun?

#3840 Postby stormy70 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 9:08 pm

It is real windy here in south alabama too. If it rained it was early this morning before I got up.
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