Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

Last winter, we didn't hit page 192 until 02/09/21!

[gpsnowman]

Last winter, we didn't hit page 192 until 02/09/21!

At one point this morning I saw over 100 guests also. On a Sunday in the summer you might see 3. Clear indication of the hunger for snow!!!

[Shygnome2]

By the way, you should know how your home is supplied with water up there in D-FW. Does the water supply come up through a slab into the interior (heated space), or does the line come up in an exterior wall? Do you have any water lines in the attic? Ideally, your attic should be well vented, particularly in winter, to keep moisture from condensing. Never put plastic bags on your vents like my father did. This means that the attic temperature will be very close to outside air temperature. If it gets as cold as the GFS is forecasting, then you may be without water for days. Don't drip faucets (that won't work for a hard freeze), turn off the main water supply and open up all valves to drain pipes. You don't want any water in the pipes if they freeze.

I remember staying in east Ft. Worth (off of Lancaster) at my father's house in the freeze of 1979. No central heat, and my step mother wouldn't let me run the gas space heater (stupid CO). When I woke up the next morning, I had long icicles hanging from the WOOD window! Went outside and found that the white ground wasn't snow, it was a 1" layer of solid ice from sleet (thunderstorm overnight). Unfortunately, my old Opel Manta had lost a window in a parking lot accident shortly before. I drove around with no drivers' side window that winter. The car did have a good heater. I looked a bit odd driving around with my window open and temps in the teens. Oh, and I remember that every time the temperature hit 15F or lower, my car would get air in the brake lines and I'd have to crawl under each wheel and bleed the brakes before driving. Ah the fun of cold weather. NOT!

I'm mostly a consumer of info, not a poster. However, I do appreciate all the Mets work here and have for many years. It is appreciated.

To build on wxman57's comments; Get yourself a T bar water valve shutoff tool and practice the shutoff procedure. Move the tool to the front door (assuming shutoff is at front curb). I have my shutoff procedure down to 22 secs. I also put a long screwdriver in the valve cover in case of snow cover. Every second counts. Also, build a bag of SharkBite straight and slip couplings, elbow connectors, pipe cutter and burr tool. 1/2 and 3/4 fittings should do it but know your setup. I keep this bag hanging next to the water shutoff tool in the garage, and move all to inside front door during an event. Last Feb I had no pipe issues (I spent 99% of my time fighting the pool mechanics), but my neighbor had a 1/2 pipe burst. We were able to shutoff water and repair the pipe. They had water for the remainder of the event. Plumbers are simply not available. I won't lie. The water leak was significant because about 15 mins went by before I was notified, but having running water is paramount. Live to fight another day.

[cheezyWXguy]

ICON says look out HC and Central/NE Texas also. Trough digs a little further south on this 12z run to create some decent QPF with temps at that time below freezing across those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

Looks like QPF is even higher across the eastern portion of the state than last run, and the freezing line passes dfw airport by 9pm

[UTSARoadrunner4]

ICON says look out HC and Central/NE Texas also. Trough digs a little further south on this 12z run to create some decent QPF with temps at that time below freezing across those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

Didn’t the models have the 2021 Winter Storm delivering a glancing blow to San Antonio up until the last day or 2 before it happened? Even then I don’t think they predicted as much precipitation to fall in the area either. Just trying to jog my memory, because the models are reminding me of last year when they at first had Bexar County barely getting anything until the last moment…

[mcallum177]

I'm just trying to understand your post.

Our house is a new build and the main water line comes in under the slab and pops up inside an interior wall. All of the distribution lines are pex and stay in the core of the house. The only exterior line is where the spigot protrudes from the exterior wall with a frost free spout. But even then the supply to the spigot runs between the 1st and 2nd floor over a bedroom to the wall.

Is there any reason to shut off my main water? I have a generator to keep the core center of the house warm with space heaters where the main distribution lines are.

By the way, you should know how your home is supplied with water up there in D-FW. Does the water supply come up through a slab into the interior (heated space), or does the line come up in an exterior wall? Do you have any water lines in the attic? Ideally, your attic should be well vented, particularly in winter, to keep moisture from condensing. Never put plastic bags on your vents like my father did. This means that the attic temperature will be very close to outside air temperature. If it gets as cold as the GFS is forecasting, then you may be without water for days. Don't drip faucets (that won't work for a hard freeze), turn off the main water supply and open up all valves to drain pipes. You don't want any water in the pipes if they freeze.

I remember staying in east Ft. Worth (off of Lancaster) at my father's house in the freeze of 1979. No central heat, and my step mother wouldn't let me run the gas space heater (stupid CO). When I woke up the next morning, I had long icicles hanging from the WOOD window! Went outside and found that the white ground wasn't snow, it was a 1" layer of solid ice from sleet (thunderstorm overnight). Unfortunately, my old Opel Manta had lost a window in a parking lot accident shortly before. I drove around with no drivers' side window that winter. The car did have a good heater. I looked a bit odd driving around with my window open and temps in the teens. Oh, and I remember that every time the temperature hit 15F or lower, my car would get air in the brake lines and I'd have to crawl under each wheel and bleed the brakes before driving. Ah the fun of cold weather. NOT!

[UTSARoadrunner4]

ICON says look out HC and Central/NE Texas also. Trough digs a little further south on this 12z run to create some decent QPF with temps at that time below freezing across those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

Didn’t the models have the 2021 Winter Storm delivering a glancing blow to San Antonio up until the last day or 2 before it happened? Even then I don’t think they predicted as much precipitation to fall in the area either. Just trying to jog my memory, because the models are reminding me of last year when they at first had Bexar County barely getting anything until the last moment…

[Iceresistance]

I have a Well house, it's already ready to be warmed with 2 Space Heaters (Used them during the extreme cold & snow of February 2021)

[Iceresistance]

ICON says look out HC and Central/NE Texas also. Trough digs a little further south on this 12z run to create some decent QPF with temps at that time below freezing across those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

Didn’t the models have the 2021 Winter Storm delivering a glancing blow to San Antonio up until the last day or 2 before it happened? Even then I don’t think they predicted as much precipitation to fall in the area either. Just trying to jog my memory, because the models are reminding me of last year when they at first had Bexar County barely getting anything until the last moment…

The Models last year underestimated the forward push of the extreme cold in February.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs rolling in with a slightly deeper and slower trough than the 6z

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Oops, my bad for posting twice

[Iceresistance]

12z gfs rolling in with a slightly deeper and slower trough than the 6z

Also slightly further north compared to 6z

[bubba hotep]

12z gfs rolling in with a slightly deeper and slower trough than the 6z

That slower and deeper trough holds up the cold a bit but really increases the moisture flow off of the Gulf.

[txtwister78]

ICON says look out HC and Central/NE Texas also. Trough digs a little further south on this 12z run to create some decent QPF with temps at that time below freezing across those areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013012/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

Didn’t the models have the 2021 Winter Storm delivering a glancing blow to San Antonio up until the last day or 2 before it happened? Even then I don’t think they predicted as much precipitation to fall in the area either. Just trying to jog my memory, because the models are reminding me of last year when they at first had Bexar County barely getting anything until the last moment…

Different setup in that we knew cold was going to be deeper into TX and more widespread several days out. This still looks borderline temp wise with the precip in place. If the system is deeper (further south) and more importantly slower (to allow temps to go below freezing) then we probably see more freezing rain/some sleet in town. HC and areas west of 35 corridor across SC TX have best odds at the moment but it's going to be close, and so I wouldn't be shocked to see some impacts in SA.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs rolling in with a slightly deeper and slower trough than the 6z

Also slightly further north compared to 6z

I’m not seeing the trough further north, if anything it digs barely further south, but the freezing line is lagging a little behind the 6z. Guessing this is because the trough is a little slower, and I am guessing it’s underdoing that progression

[funster]

Interesting video with meteorologist Rick Mitchell discussing the system and models. He says it will be "impactful" [youtube]https://youtu.be/gbTham8SXL4[/youtube]

[Iceresistance]

It's clearly trying to break away from the Jet Stream, which is slowing it down even more.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_us_17.png

[Brent]

GFS not backing down up here

[Ntxw]

Trowal feature is even more prominent on this run. Brushing aside placement and details given how far out, it continues to trend upward for this feature. It started showing up on the CMC yesterday and on most of the models have been propping it up more and more.

[Iceresistance]

GFS not backing down up here

https://i.ibb.co/mcV0w9g/sn10-acc-us-c-12.png

The Kuchera Ratio is even higher, 10 inches in OKC