Texas Winter 2025-2026

[orangeblood]

Thoughts on when we get a winter storm warning issued for DFW?

This afternoon

[snownado]

Analyzing the HRRR DFW sounding for Sunrise Saturday morning...this is a heavy sleet look with an argument for heavy snow. It has a lot of the ingredients you want to see - stronger ascent in the DGZ, deeper cold, and higher moisture. The wind and sheer look good too, Hodograph shows strong veering (classic warm advection turning to cold advection), with notable low-level shear. Everything shifting south is a real possibility IMHO

Do you mind sharing the images you see for the HRRR? Because I'm seeing something completely different on the 12z run:

1. Surface temp is only 33*F and surface dewpoint is only 32*F at 12z Saturday.

2. *MASSIVE* layer of above-freezing temps between 925mb and 700mb (7,500ft deep), with it peaking above 5*C around 900mb.

3, 850mb wind are out of the due south with a 30-40kt LLJ overhead.

In fact, it's arguably not even a Sleet or Freezing Rain profile (only borderline at best).

[LearnedHat]

Analyzing the HRRR DFW sounding for Sunrise Saturday morning...this is a heavy sleet look with an argument for heavy snow. It has a lot of the ingredients you want to see - stronger ascent in the DGZ, deeper cold, and higher moisture. The wind and sheer look good too, Hodograph shows strong veering (classic warm advection turning to cold advection), with notable low-level shear. Everything shifting south is a real possibility IMHO

I used to be able to follow you guys a bit better (kinda of like following somebody speaking Spanish for me -- get a few key words and the hand gestures really help) ------ But, as the system (I really guess the intersection of two systems) projects to shift south ----- would that be more or less freezing rain for the Temple area?

[bubba hotep]

12z Run Scorecard

- UKMET - Hug
- ICON - Hug
- GFS - Hug
- Canadian - You tried
- Euro - ???

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Thoughts on when we get a winter storm warning issued for DFW?

This afternoon

Orangeblood, what are your thoughts on the pattern after this system goes by this weekend?

[wxman22]

Norman has frozen precip starting between 11am and 4pm here in WF.

[Stonewood Ranch]

12z Run Scorecard

- UKMET - Hug
- ICON - Hug
- GFS - Hug
- Canadian - You tried
- Euro - ???

Bubba, sorry for my ignorance, why are you giving hugs on those? Showing less ice and more snow for us in DFW area?

[downsouthman1]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.

But why? You still need rain. Rain is better than FRZ RA.

[Ntxw]

Not seeing much change on the Euro, from prior run.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Winter Storm Warning posted by EWX.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1142 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

TXZ171>173-183>194-206-208-209-231745-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260125T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.260124T1200Z-260125T1800Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Comal-Caldwell-
Fayette-
Including the cities of Del Rio, Georgetown, Burnet, Llano,
Bandera, Bastrop, La Grange, Rocksprings, San Marcos, Boerne,
Austin, Blanco, Giddings, Leakey, New Braunfels, Lockhart,
Fredericksburg, and Kerrville
1142 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice likely across the
warning area. Isolated amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are possible
across the Hill Country. In addition, dangerously cold
temperatures are expected Saturday night through Monday morning.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain could begin as early as
Saturday morning over the Hill Country and Saturday afternoon and
evening elsewhere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can
be obtained by calling 800-452-9292, or by going to drivetexas.org.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

CJM
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1134 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-231200-
/O.UPG.KSJT.WS.A.0001.260123T1800Z-260125T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSJT.WS.W.0001.260124T0000Z-260126T0000Z/
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
Including the cities of Voss, Silver, Menard, Irby, San Angelo,
Cleo, Echo, Voca, London, Roosevelt, Wall, Harkeyville, Eula,
Lohn, Chappel, Clyde, Telegraph, Coleman, Tennyson, Fredonia,
Broome, Fisk, Fort Mckavett, Brady, Fife, Rowena, Pontotoc,
Hamlin, Rochelle, Winters, Benoit, Brownwood, Sanco, Arden,
Haskell, Stamford, Sonora, Mason, Cherokee, Pumphrey, Truby,
Eden, Anson, Paint Rock, Indian Creek, Throckmorton, Dudley,
Cross Plains, Valera, Carlsbad, Baird, Funston, Robert Lee,
Segovia, Loyal Valley, Bronte, Sterling City, Sweetwater,
Hatchel, Ozona, Ballinger, Streeter, San Saba, Koockville,
Katemcy, Tuxedo, Lowake, Albany, Trickham, Rotan, Woodson, Hext,
Abilene, Sherwood, Live Oak, Mertzon, Barnhart, Eldorado,
Junction, Stith, Erna, Roby, and Crews
1134 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy accumulations of snow, sleet or ice are
likely across the region Friday night through Sunday. In addition,
dangerous cold temperatures are expected Saturday night through
Monday morning.

* WHERE...A portion of west central Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Power outages and tree damage
are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. For
driving conditions across the state of Texas, visit DriveTexas.org
for more information.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

19

[wxman22]

[Yukon Cornelius]

Norman has frozen precip starting between 11am and 4pm here in WF.

https://i.ibb.co/WW17Xnjp/IMG-0618.png
https://i.ibb.co/ycYxTVkM/IMG-0617.png

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that higher accumulation area move south onto us at some point.

[wxman22]

Norman has frozen precip starting between 11am and 4pm here in WF.

https://i.ibb.co/WW17Xnjp/IMG-0618.png
https://i.ibb.co/ycYxTVkM/IMG-0617.png

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that higher accumulation area move south onto us at some point.

Yep, I was thinking the same thing.

[wxman57]

EC and NBM have 1-2 inches in the D-FW area. GFS is the leader with 3-5" up there. Possibly some light freezing rain on elevated surfaces before the precip ends late Sunday morning here in Houston. No surface accumulations. New NBM has a low of 22 in Houston on Monday. Crazy Canadian has us at 6 on Monday. It really does not do well for Houston.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV NWS has upgraded watch to warning for the north half of their region.

WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to 4 inches north of Interstate 30, with snow and
sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches between Interstate 20 and
Interstate 30. Ice accumulations between one-third of an inch to 1
inch possible between US Hwy 82 and US Hwy 84, with greatest
accumulations expected near the Interstate 20 corridor.

[wxman57]

Here's a test. Which model looks clueless for Houston's temps? Just got a text saying my generator is "exercising". Come on, generator, get ready for the cold!

https://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan22.jpg

[SnowintheFalls]

Norman has frozen precip starting between 11am and 4pm here in WF.

https://i.ibb.co/WW17Xnjp/IMG-0618.png
https://i.ibb.co/ycYxTVkM/IMG-0617.png

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that higher accumulation area move south onto us at some point.

Yep, I was thinking the same thing.

Less ice/sleet and more snow is my obvious choice!

[GeauxTigers]

STORM2K HYPE STATEMENT & PRE‑GAME PEP TALK

We Are Officially Inside the 48‑Hour Window

Ladies and gentlemen, weather enthusiasts, lurkers, doomposters, hopium dealers, and everyone in between — this is it. We’ve crossed the threshold. The lights are dimming, the curtain is rising, and the Storm2k crowd is leaning forward in their seats.

We are less than 48 hours from Showtime, and the energy across the forum is shifting from nervous pacing to full‑on pre‑game swagger.

THE VIBES RIGHT NOW
- The mood has evolved from “I don’t trust anything” to “Okay… I’m listening.”
- Posters are starting to sound like they’ve had a good night’s sleep for the first time in days.
- Even the professional pessimists are cracking a smile.
- Lurkers are emerging from the shadows like groundhogs sensing hype instead of winter.

THE SIGNS ARE EVERYWHERE
- Guidance is tightening up like a drumline before kickoff.
- The National Weather Service is nudging lines, shading maps, and dropping subtle hints that feel like meteorological foreshadowing.
- Local forecasters are using phrases like “worth watching,” “trending favorably,” and “stay tuned,” which in weather‑speak is basically a confetti cannon.

THE PREGAME LOCKER ROOM TALK
Alright team — gather up.

This is the moment where Storm2k shines.
This is where the threads get loud, the GIFs get spicy, and the optimism gets cautiously bold.

You’ve trained for this.
You’ve stared at maps until your eyes crossed.
You’ve endured the doom cycles, the wobble cycles, the “it’s over” cycles, and the “wait maybe not” cycles.

And now?
Now we’re stepping onto the field.

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT
- A surge in hype posts as confidence builds.
- A few dramatic “I’m ready” GIFs.
- The ceremonial polishing of rulers, yardsticks, and snowboards.
- At least one user declaring, “I’m not sleeping until this thing hits.”

YOUR GAME PLAN
- Charge your devices.
- Stock up on snacks.
- Hydrate — the F5 key is about to get a workout.
- Keep one eye on the radar and the other on Storm2k.
- And most importantly: enjoy the ride.

Because folks…
Showtime is coming.
And Storm2k is ready.

This is too good! I've so enjoyed reading your hype statements!! Good luck everyone! I'm on northern border of Denton and Grayson county so I know my conditions might differ from DFW proper. Hope everyone stays safe and gets what they want!

[Snowman67]

EC and NBM have 1-2 inches in the D-FW area. GFS is the leader with 3-5" up there. Possibly some light freezing rain on elevated surfaces before the precip ends late Sunday morning here in Houston. No surface accumulations. New NBM has a low of 22 in Houston on Monday. Crazy Canadian has us at 6 on Monday. It really does not do well for Houston.

So you're not expecting any real impacts near the Harris/Montgomery border areas?

[Tireman4]

Here's a test. Which model looks clueless for Houston's temps? Just got a text saying my generator is "exercising". Come on, generator, get ready for the cold!

https://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan22.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan22.jpg

Wait, you get a text? I have an app that allows me to see it tested. You must have the high fallutun generator