Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Metalicwx220]

Wunderground radar has been having issues. The lines of storms is not over us yet when it shows that It is and there is definitely not a wintry mix in southwest georgia while its 48 in albany and weston georgia. lol

[Metalicwx220]

http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/r ... er%2c%20GA Its almost here. HEHE

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-082345-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
543 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT ANY
POSSIBLE IMPACTS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FROM SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SNOW WILL FALL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD BRING A HARD FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.

$$

[Metalicwx220]

LAME! saw some strong winds and heavy rain but to short of duration.

[Metalicwx220]

lol look at the 0z nam in 6hours. i thinkin the moisture may be gone then.

[Lane]

this is the Oz Nam at 60hrs looks pretty wet to me. Although I am not a pro maybe someone else can help out. looks really good for me.

[Brent]

I don't know what the deal is, but when you look at the cobb output for that run, not a flake falls on I-20. It's too warm at the surface.

I'm starting to doubt more than an inch or two anywhere in Alabama at this point. Not even sure I'm doing a snow chase, except MAYBE to Cheaha(2,400 feet up 40 miles north of me).

[Brent]

Don't even look at the 0z Euro. No one even gets a dusting in AL/GA

My snow chase is off unless something drastic happens.

[BigB0882]

Don't even look at the 0z Euro. No one even gets a dusting in AL/GA

My snow chase is off unless something drastic happens.

Did they keep all the snow in and around Baton Rouge? I told the Euro to share with you guys.

[BigB0882]

Wintry Mix now on tap for Wed night for Baton Rouge according to NWS! 70% chance of rain, then rain and snow after midnight to 3am then snow and freezing rain after 3am. No accumulations expected.

[Ivanhater]

HPC Snowfall prediction

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola still putting snow in the forecast for the northern zones of the forecast area.

.ALL THE GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SOME SORT OF WINTER PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE
FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN...AND SOME FLURRIES AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...BEHIND THE BULK OF THE MODEL QPF...LEAVING IT FOR LATER RUNS
TO HOPEFULLY GEL ON THE WX EVOLUTION.

[Ivanhater]

Oh I like this map



http://montgomery.raycomweather.com/

[timmeister]

Here's the new Snow Map from the NWS in Jackson, MS. According to the forecast, Hattiesburgs precip could change over to all snow by 3AM Thursday Morning. The map shows up to 1 inch possible, however the forecast calls for 1/4" to 1/2" inch. We'll see.....

[BigB0882]

Can anyone explain why the possible rain/snow line seemingly goes up and forms a semicircle? Is that an area that is significantly lower than the others just to the East and West? I never understood how those maps could be so specific in areas that don't have very high terrain which could easily affect rain/snow.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
512 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS...ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ALZ011>015-017>032-034-082200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0003.110209T2100Z-110210T1200Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...CENTREVILLE
512 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN
ACCUMULATING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND TWO
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AS SNOW INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

[timmeister]

The light blue line on this map shows the snow line which has Hattiesburg with rain and not snow. However looking at the water vapor imagery, it's possible that the low could track a little further south which would move the snow line a little more to the south.

[MississippiWx]

Can anyone explain why the possible rain/snow line seemingly goes up and forms a semicircle? Is that an area that is significantly lower than the others just to the East and West? I never understood how those maps could be so specific in areas that don't have very high terrain which could easily affect rain/snow.

The forecast map is from the Jackson, MS NWS. If you'll look closely, they have their counties outline. Those counties are in the JAN CWFA. Thus, notice how the places highlighted are only the Jackson counties. Since they don't forecast for areas outside of those counties, they made a map specifically for their area.

[MississippiWx]

Here's the new Snow Map from the NWS in Jackson, MS. According to the forecast, Hattiesburgs precip could change over to all snow by 3AM Thursday Morning. The map shows up to 1 inch possible, however the forecast calls for 1/4" to 1/2" inch. We'll see.....

The 1/4'' to 1/2'' totals are liquid equivalent. Hattiesburg's NWS forecast page doesn't have any snowfall amounts in the grids yet.

[timmeister]

The new 12Z RPM snow accumulation map