Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

BTW, if you're in Hburg and points north, you have to like what the 12 NAM is showing. Deep moisture is still around (all the way back to Louisiana) while the 0degree line is pushing through:

[timmeister]

BTW, if you're in Hburg and points north, you have to like what the 12 NAM is showing. Deep moisture is still around (all the way back to Louisiana) while the 0degree line is pushing through:

Yes, the 0 degree line on your Map shows just to the north of Hattiesburg at 12 Midnight. I guess by 3 AM the 0 degree line will push through the Pine Belt Area and give us a chance for Snow on the backside of the Low.

[timmeister]

Thursday 3AM CST Precipitation Forecast Map

[Ivanhater]

Also of note, the front seems to be pushing through Texas faster than forecast.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS shifts farther south and east with the Snow today

[timmeister]

Also of note, the front seems to be pushing through Texas faster than forecast.

Since the front seems to be pushing south faster than forecast doesn't that mean that the low could actually track a little further to the south?

[Ivanhater]

Also of note, the front seems to be pushing through Texas faster than forecast.

Since the front seems to be pushing south faster than forecast doesn't that mean that the low could actually track a little further to the south?

I would think so. If the front is moving south faster, that would indicate more digging and a low to pop further south.

[BigB0882]

I think there is a slim chance I can spot a flake Wed night. It will almost certainly be the last chance barring some odd March front that is unusually strong.

[northjaxpro]

HPC 15Z surface analysis has the arctic frontal boundary approaching the Red River Valley, with a 1011 mb Surface Low pressure riding along the front just SE of Amarillo, TX. 1043 mb Arctic High dropping down currently over Eastern Montana.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif

[Ynotndalton]

12z gfs finally had came back to life today.. nam trended more aggresive as well actually painting a 1012 low off the coast.. maybe this is a trend that will continue tonight twards bringing the storm back to life some.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-090400-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1248 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST...AND LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES...BUT ANY HAZARDOUS IMPACTS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FROM SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO
CLANTON LINE. FOR A MAP OF FORECAST SNOW TOTALS...PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM WEB SITE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD BRING A HARD FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.

$$

[Ynotndalton]

Hpc stated in thier model diagnostics that all the 12z models showed a trend towards amplifying the low.

[Brent]

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078-079-
081-082-090900-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-HARRIS-TALBOT-
CRAWFORD-BIBB-
347 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER TO NORTH...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR...MAINLY
NORTH OF A ROME TO DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND LINE. THE REST OF NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LAGRANGE TO EATONTON AND CRAWFORDVILLE
LINE...COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS AREAS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD
FALL AS FAR SOUTH AS COLUMBUS...MACON AND LOUISVILLE...BUT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES.

STAYED TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...CONCERNING
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

$$

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble

[TideJoe]

12z GFS Ensemble

That looks pretty good for me. I'd just like to see the ground covered once this year before the Spring gets here.

[hcaeb]

With the models wakening up now, can someone give us in NC an idea of what we can expect? Sounds to me like the Sandhills and the coast may be in the sweet spot.

[Ynotndalton]

New nam stayed pretty much the same.. want to see the gfs here in a couple hours.. see if it devolops it any more.. if so.. maybe we have a new day before the storm trend emerging..

[Snowluvr]

In my opinion I think anyone from just north of I10 has at least a small chance of seeing a few flakes before the precip ends Thursday morning. This could be one of those suprise snow events where somewhere not expected gets in on the action.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS...Heaviest snow now forecast for the southern portions of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.