Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Yukon Cornelius]

Per the local weather community facebook page, heavy snow being reported in Archer City. Light light snow in WF.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS trending colder again & Storm #1 has also trended MUCH farther South than 6z

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_16.png

It's the one model that is trying to snow on Saturday along with the deeper Arctic surge/shortwave. The other models have the disturbance but is dry except for ICON squeezing out a line.

This is going to be a tough forecast . . .

(Also noticed that the Strength of the other storms are dependent on the First Storm on the Models, very hard to forecast with this!)

[Ntxw]

12z GFS trending colder again & Storm #1 has also trended MUCH farther South than 6z

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_16.png

It's the one model that is trying to snow on Saturday along with the deeper Arctic surge/shortwave. The other models have the disturbance but is dry except for ICON squeezing out a line.

This is going to be a tough forecast . . .

(Also noticed that the Strength of the other storms are dependent on the First Storm on the Models, very hard to forecast with this!)

We could be dealing with 4 shortwaves between today and middle of next week. I mean lets go for 1978!

[Iceresistance]

Per the local weather community facebook page, heavy snow being reported in Archer City.

What? That means the Arctic Air is MUCH farther South than expected! It's snowing in Town right now as well!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS trending the PV Stronger & Farther South . . .

[orangeblood]

Latest GFS looks even stronger with PV positioning as it swings through the upper midwest and brings down a stronger HP (compared to prior runs) directly down into the southern plains

Don't believe you can draw up a better winter weather map for our local and that includes a majority of the State!

[rwfromkansas]

1978 was legendary in Kansas well. My dad showed me photos from 1980 a few years before I was born where it snowed 20 inches in one month, which was unheard of. This wasn't all one storm, but there were just days and days of 1 or 2-inch snows to where it eventually added up to basically 2 feet. Hard to fathom that nowadays, and it was an insane event back then.

[Quixotic]

28 and freezing drizzle here. I swear I saw a few snowflakes but that can’t be right.

[Ntxw]

I know its only 10a, but I have dropped from 32.7 at 7a to 31.7 currently in Dallas.

DFW is holding steady at 30F.

[Ntxw]

1978 was legendary in Kansas well. My dad showed me photos from 1980 a few years before I was born where it snowed 20 inches in one month, which was unheard of. This wasn't all one storm, but there were just days and days of 1 or 2-inch snows to where it eventually added up to basically 2 feet. Hard to fathom that nowadays, and it was an insane event back then.

The same thing happened in DFW mid Jan to mid Feb 1978. Nickle and dimed system after system from Arctic fronts and then the big snow storm hit mid Feb and it went to 9F. It still stands as the snowiest winter for the airport.

[wxman57]

12Z ICON is warmer than 00Z. From the 00 run with 13F in Houston Tuesday, it's up to 24F. Only a light freeze on Monday. It was way too extreme before. Maybe it's coming to its senses.

[SoupBone]

Wxman is using his Australian weather machine to stop it from reaching Houston. I just want a little snow, not necessarily accumulations!

[wxman22]

12z GFS A coastal low forming is a very good scenario if you want significant wintry precipitation in the south.

[MGC]

I think 57 is using the new Australian model.....keeps it at 90 degrees all the time.....MGC

[Yukon Cornelius]

Per the local weather community facebook page, heavy snow being reported in Archer City.

What? That means the Arctic Air is MUCH farther South than expected! It's snowing in Town right now as well!

It’s been here since yesterday. Archer city is only 30-40 min from WF.

[TropicalTundra]

The ICON has "rain" in the 20s which means that it is either ice or a mix (since it doesn't show anything other than rain and snow).

[Ntxw]

The ICON has "rain" in the 20s which means that it is either ice or a mix (since it doesn't show anything other than rain and snow).

Icon from tropicaltidbits with the qpf only depicts rain or snow. The graphics doesn't display anything in between.

[orangeblood]

Regardless of what actually occurs, from a model analysis perspective seeing the latest GFS Op forecast 4 separate winter weather events for Texas inside a 9 day period is something to behold!!

[Ntxw]

Regardless of what actually occurs, from a model analysis perspective seeing the latest GFS Op forecast 4 separate winter weather events for Texas inside a 9 day period is something to behold!!

It also snows anywhere from the low teens to low 20s, another thing we don't see around here often.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at ... but NWS last night said a high of 60 today and then early this morning they lowered today's highs in the mid 50s. Technically their forecast is accurate as the high for today likely occurred just after midnight when temps were in the low 60s.

Not just "technically", when forecasting high & low temps, we consider midnight to midnight. We're not just forecasting the temperature in mid-afternoon. Back to bed now, it's early Wednesday morning here.

I'll play a little devil's advocate here while true, they have also put forecasts "rising to 45 by x time" or "falling to 47 by x time". That would cover that kind of confusion. Sometimes they just miss the ball when the forecast is off-track a little.

Yeah, that would have been better. Or maybe even "falling through the 40s" without giving a specific temperature(?). Maybe that's too broad-brushed.

It was the National Weather Service forecast, but forgot to add that was YESTERDAY's forecast when I looked at it YESTERDAY, old news at this point.
They revised it this morning, lower obviously. Their original forecast had mentioned 68, I think maybe 70s a couple days ago(?).
Just proves how these air masses throw computers off, and we ultimately have to include historically educated guesses/instincts with ground truths in the model output land.
I would love to visit Australia at some point. Never been.