Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

Numerous 12z GFS ensemble members are even further south, some even show a closed 546dm low traversing across central Texas....If this were to occur, it would promote even more top-down cooling, which is very much needed due to the warm surface temps

[CaptinCrunch]

I am such a weather nerd. I am watching a live Boston blizzard camera. No shame, I love it.!!!!!! On a side note, Steve McCauley (WFAA Dallas) mentioned on his FB page that the POSSIBILITY of some flakes flying are increasing here in North Texas next week. Keep your fingers crossed.

Link please....lol

[gpsnowman]

I am such a weather nerd. I am watching a live Boston blizzard camera. No shame, I love it.!!!!!! On a side note, Steve McCauley (WFAA Dallas) mentioned on his FB page that the POSSIBILITY of some flakes flying are increasing here in North Texas next week. Keep your fingers crossed.

Link please....lol

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... 0656,d.aWM
It is on the right side of the page. It is a shot of Copley Square in downtown I think.

[dhweather]

GFS got wetter again for the storm mid this week. Of course it's north of the Euro and dumps oodles of snow for southern Oklahoma. Lately it's been seeing the little system off Baja to aid. What a pms model

Follow the Vort Max

Maybe we can get 57 to sing a modified Barney song for us?

I love you,
You love me,
Follow the vorticity .......

[dhweather]

Numerous 12z GFS ensemble members are even further south, some even show a closed 546dm low traversing across central Texas....If this were to occur, it would promote even more top-down cooling, which is very much needed due to the warm surface temps

While I want to believe we'll get a significant snow event, I don't see the warmth at the surface being overcome, at least not with the midweek system.

[Ntxw]

Numerous 12z GFS ensemble members are even further south, some even show a closed 546dm low traversing across central Texas....If this were to occur, it would promote even more top-down cooling, which is very much needed due to the warm surface temps

While I want to believe we'll get a significant snow event, I don't see the warmth at the surface being overcome, at least not with the midweek system.

2 things to watch here. First is the cyclone (blizzard) in the midwest this weekend. This storm will send down a strong cold front, how much cold air it drills south is important as well as snow cover it lays down. Second is how strong will the storm be, a deeper low will promote enough dynamic cooling that even in the low 40s is marginally enough for snow to at least fall. As we saw on Christmas even with temps into the 70s just a few days before it can be overcome.

This system will be opening up as it comes across Texas most likely. Storm scenarios like this often offers copious amounts of precipitation often missed by models, areas just north of the rain/snow line will likely get a good dose of winter reality.

Edit: Euro and to an extent the GFS is still offering a cold blast after the system a few days later and a third waiting in line to follow in the Pac NW

[Portastorm]

With regards to the upper trough moving across Texas early next week, the op and ensembles suggest a path anywhere from Central Texas to southern Oklahoma. Lotsa time left to hone it down but I certainly wouldn't rule out a flake or three for the Metroplex at this time.

[Ntxw]

Here is the Euro for the storm, it's been adamant about the track and still keeps the best precip under the vortmax. 850s are anywhere from -2c to -4c so it will definitely be snowing above our heads on it at least

[orangeblood]

With regards to the upper trough moving across Texas early next week, the op and ensembles suggest a path anywhere from Central Texas to southern Oklahoma. Lotsa time left to hone it down but I certainly wouldn't rule out a flake or three for the Metroplex at this time.

Forget the metroplex, the 12Z Euro has flakes flying in Austin and the Northern Suburbs of Houston next weekend

[Portastorm]

As we all know, you cannot trust the models beyond 3-4 days ... unless they show snow at which point you can consider them MONEY IN THE BANK!

[wxman57]

Don't know what that Euro map above is. Here's the high-res Euro predicted 24hr snow for next week's system, valid for the same time as the map Ntxw posted. It keeps all the snow in the Panhandle. Map shows liquid equivalent in millimeters. About 4-6mm liquid. 25mm = 1", so about 0.2 of an inch liquid or 2" snow.

[orangeblood]

how about the snowfall accumulation map for next weekend's system, you're going to like what you see

[wxman57]

:uarrow: how about the snowfall accumulation map for next weekend's system, you're going to like what you see

Your wish is my command (sometimes). Interesting map. Good thing the models can't be trusted so far out. Snow misses Dallas/Ft. Worth.

[Ntxw]

Im tellin ya those snow machines are being delivered to PWC as we speak. Porta will fill those orders and then some to wxman's backyard

[wxman57]

Im tellin ya those snow machines are being delivered to PWC as we speak. Porta will fill those orders and then some to wxman's backyard

No thanks. I'll take a few days of 80+ degree highs, though.

[wxman57]

When I plot the 2m temps over that snowfall area next weekend I see the lowest temps the Euro is forecasting would be about 35-36 deg.

[orangeblood]

When I plot the 2m temps over that snowfall area next weekend I see the lowest temps the Euro is forecasting would be about 35-36 deg.

Well there is a very well respected met on here that always preaches these models usually are too slow and underestimate these cold air masses. The trend is not your friend this time around!!

[wxman57]

When I plot the 2m temps over that snowfall area next weekend I see the lowest temps the Euro is forecasting would be about 35-36 deg.

Well there is a very well respected met on here that always preaches these models usually are too slow and underestimate these cold air masses. The trend is not your friend this time around!!

After observing how the models have performed so far this winter, I'd be reluctant to believe any forecast that far out. Timing is quite important with snow events. I expect to see significant changes between now and the middle of next week, but not necessarily toward colder/snowier. Could easily be the other way.

[Portastorm]

And here I thought you drew up that 12z Euro map just for your friends at the Portastorm Weather Center?!

[orangeblood]

Japanese model is on board for early next weekend....biggest storm of them all with winter fun and games into central Texas!!