Texas Winter 2017-2018

[mcheer23]

Its EURO time..

[Ralph's Weather]

I an expecting lows next week in the 12 to 22 range depending on cloud cover. Highs in the 18 to 30 range depending on clouds and precip intensity.

Is that for those of us in the Tyler/Lindale area? I would hope no ice.

That is for the I20 corridor of E and N TX generally. We should stay liquid through most of Sunday and maybe drop to freezing right at the end of the precip on Sunday, so I would not expect anything more than minor bridge icing for NYE night. Things can change though and they likely will. On Tuesday, it seems like most of the light snow will stay south of I20. Our best chance at snow for this coming week will likely be Thursday as we get a shortwave crossing northern Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local mets have been discussing potential wintry mix this weekend but I have not seen any of the models indicate anything this far north. Am I overlooking something?

Friday night has a 10% chance of freezing drizzle, Saturday-areas of freezing drizzle, Saturday night a 20% chance of freezing rain and a 20% chance of snow on Sunday per The National Weather Service. I assume all of that could change at any point though.

[Brent]

Euro for Sunday

Maybe a brief window for precip like last run, then temps go below freezing

no snow in Austin or Houston this run Tuesday it appears

[gpsnowman]

Quiet in here. Is the Euro still running?

[Cpv17]

Quiet in here. Is the Euro still running?

The Euro went towards the GFS solution of warmer and drier. That’s why it’s quiet, but yes, it’s still running.

[Brent]

just dry cold it appears on the Euro largely and its less cold too

is still a secondary shot of dry cold next Thursday

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro and GFS pretty much agree that my area goes below freezing for 36-40 straight hours and the coldest I get is 24ish.

So I'm going to take their performance on Arctic fronts and say I probably stay below freezing 48-54 hours and get down to 18-20.

[Brent]

very boring Euro run. Coldest DFW gets is low/mid 20s

Needs more precip

the east coast gets buried in snow, how shocking

[SnowintheFalls]

Not sure where it is coming from but it is snowing pretty good again here! Temp is 36 so it is not accumulating but coming down pretty thick.

[bubba hotep]

Euro has another cold shot coming down at D10 as the Pacific pattern just keeps reloading. It looks like the anticipated January warm up might be delayed or never shows up?

[Ntxw]

Euro has another cold shot coming down at D10 as the Pacific pattern just keeps reloading. It looks like the anticipated January warm up might be delayed or never shows up?

Warmth keeps getting pushed back? 2 weeks out

That's what happens when they forecast January thaw because its a common easy term without recognizing the forcing behind it

[JayDT]

very boring Euro run. Coldest DFW gets is low/mid 20s

Needs more precip

the east coast gets buried in snow, how shocking

As if they don’t get enough Why does it have to be so hard to get some winter weather around here??

[losf1981]

:froze:
Not sure where it is coming from but it is snowing pretty good again here! Temp is 36 so it is not accumulating but coming down pretty thick.

what part of WF are you in??

[Ralph's Weather]

Seems to me that we will need to watch the front Thursday. A bit of lift and temps in the mid 20s seems like a set up for minimal qpf equalling a decent little snowfall.

[SnowintheFalls]

:froze:
Not sure where it is coming from but it is snowing pretty good again here! Temp is 36 so it is not accumulating but coming down pretty thick.

what part of WF are you in??

I am close to Burk and it has been off and on snow all morning. It is a slim band on the radar.

[losf1981]

:froze:
Not sure where it is coming from but it is snowing pretty good again here! Temp is 36 so it is not accumulating but coming down pretty thick.

what part of WF are you in??

I am close to Burk and it has been off and on snow all morning. It is a slim band on the radar.

Oh might as well be in oklahoma then...

[stormlover2013]

Lol don’t we love models lol, tomorrow and Saturday will give us a better idea

[somethingfunny]

Is the NAM normally wrong with it’s forecast for snow, sleet or freezing rain?

That depends on your definition of the word "wrong"

If you're looking for the NAM to forecast a particular parcel of air will precipitate a particular amount of moisture at a particular temperature reading into your particular 18 inches of arm's-length personal space, you'll find that the NAM and every model would always be wrong at every time range, even just 5 minutes from now due to limitations with sampling data collection for initializing the model and the nature of chaos theory. All the models are always "wrong".

If you stretch your definition of "wrong" to become looser and looser eventually find alot of models become more or less "right" in the general sense. Some models more than others. We just have to be forgiving and understanding with them like they're puppies.

The NAM is decent but i don't expect anything more from it than "will there be precipitation within a couple hundred miles?"

[Yukon Cornelius]

Goodness