Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Trend continues and something big is definitely on the table for I-20 and northward.

FW has included rain/snow in the forecast for DFW. FYI DFW hasn't gotten >1" snowfall since 2002 in January and no multi inch since 1985, snow drought for this month.

Should see some interesting runs today as the shortwave begins to move south in the Pac NW.

[WinterMax]

Trend continues and something big is definitely on the table for I-20 and northward.

FW has included rain/snow in the forecast for DFW. FYI DFW hasn't gotten >1" snowfall since 2002 in January and no multi inch since 1985, snow drought for this month.

Should see some interesting runs today as the shortwave begins to move south in the Pac NW.

I hope you guys in Dallas get accumulating snow. I think for us around Alexandria La we may have missed the boat for winter precip this winter.

[WinterMax]

Nothing nice about the weather here in Alexandria La now, 48 degrees and rain, hate this.

[Cerlin]

NAM is onboard. Looks nearly identical to the GFS. Still working out some dynamical kinks (edge of it’s range) but highest snowfall totals along red river and hints of DFW getting in on the action.

[txtwister78]

The other trend that needs to be watched is the depth of the cold air associated with the low ejecting out. Euro has trended slightly "warmer" in the last few runs compared to the previous cycles similar to the ICON. This is still a borderline event atmospherically speaking (snow vs cold rain or a mix of both).

[South Texas Storms]

While much of the talk in here is about the potential snow, it's also worth noting we could see a significant wind and severe event farther south from this system. I'm surprised SPC doesn't have a risk area out yet. NAM is showing a line of strong to severe storms developing in the Hill Country and then tracking eastward on Tuesday.

[Cerlin]

The other trend that needs to be watched is the depth of the cold air associated with the low ejecting out. Euro has trended slightly "warmer" in the last few runs compared to the previous cycles similar to the ICON. This is still a borderline event atmospherically speaking (snow vs cold rain or a mix of both).

A lot of the models that are showing heavy snowfall accumulations are banking on some heavier precipitation rates to assist in the overall cooling of the thermal profile, which is probable but not certain. Back in November, we had a similar issue in Norman, where it was projected to be around 35 at the surface but freezing about 500 ft up and onwards, and the rate of precipitation would have been strong enough to overcome the brief warm surface temperatures. However, temps busted overnight (difference of 37 vs 39 at 8 AM) and the rain event was much more of a steady drizzle, so there weren’t any snowflakes until it hit 35 degrees at 5 pm or so and by that point, it was well too late to see anything measurable. Places that did hit their projected lows, like Ada about 50 miles east of here, saw 3 or 4 inches. It wouldn’t surprise me if a similar situation unfolds south of the red river on Tuesday, especially given the impact of the urban heat island.

[txtwister78]

While much of the talk in here is about the potential snow, it's also worth noting we could see a significant wind and severe event farther south from this system. I'm surprised SPC doesn't have a risk area out yet. NAM is showing a line of strong to severe storms developing in the Hill Country and then tracking eastward on Tuesday.

Just looked at their Day 3 discussion and they do mention the possibility of adding some severe probabilities in future forecast outlooks for that region once spread in modeling has decreased per the forecaster.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Allan Huffman
@RaleighWx
·
1h
Great pattern if you love snow from TX/KS/OK to the Ohio Valley to the interior Northeast. For the Carolinas not so much

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS shifts the H5 track north a bit compared to 00z, and it also opens up the system faster as it kicks out of Texas. Minor changes that can make a big difference with a marginal setup. Regardless, widespread rain for the state looks pretty much locked in.

[txtwister78]

I'll say this (as mentioned a week ago) you can't say this upcoming pattern is boring or without some potential for all of the regions represented in this forum. Areas that are in desperate need of some rain are finally going to cash in early next wk. Our friends from Oklahoma and parts of TX have a chance to see some snow and then we look for the arctic hounds to be released in the longer term which I think looks promising.

[Iceresistance]

What did I miss?

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the GFS has trended a little north again, with less totals (Likely more realistic on the totals though).

[bubba hotep]

The CMC has trended south and cooler the last couple of runs but still not enough to get snow into DFW (outside the far western & NW areas). However, this trend has robbed the Panhandles and portions of W OK of a big-time modeled snowstorm.

[Brent]

It looks like that the GFS has trended a little north again, with less totals (Likely more realistic on the totals though).

Yeah even here I'm not fully convinced our higher potential won't get ruined by warm air well see

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the GFS has trended a little north again, with less totals (Likely more realistic on the totals though).

Yeah even here I'm not fully convinced our higher potential won't get ruined by warm air well see

It seems like the temperature is the biggest factor, the high temperature will strongly depend on the snowfall potential.

[Ntxw]

GFS unloads the cold air.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS unloads the cold air.

Snow down to the coast

[Ntxw]

GFS unloads the cold air.

Snow down to the coast

Yep, all of the models now are opening the floodgates in the closing days of January.